2017 College Football Playoffs (and Other Bowl Games)

[Jaxbuck]

It isn't anything that can't be managed, as long as the money is right (it is what it is).

I will say (if we're going to have them) that while I favor the conference championship games meaning something, I don't like the divisional format and unbalanced schedules. Truth be told, I don't like conference title games but we all know they aren't going away. I prefer the days of 10 team conferences with a round robin schedule, but I also like the triple option.

Yeah, moving it up a week or two in the schedule is the simple solution but it just won't feel the same.

If given the choice between keeping The Game as is with a 4 team playoff and moving it for an 8 team format with conference champ auto bids, I'd probably vote to keep it at 4 to be honest.

 

[shiloh]

sure but I would say that qualifies as "impacts" The Game.

moving it from the traditional end of season spot it's held for 80-90 years is kind of a big deal

Joined the USN 1976. One of the first slogans encountered ~ United States Navy 200 years of tradition unhampered by progress! I digress ...

The Game is such a high, if the Buckeyes make the B1G championship there's bound to be a letdown. 'bama/Auburn have the same scenario. 2014 was, how shall I say, unique!

>

Again, as mentioned what really hurts the Buckeye's case is the committee f*cking up last year and including them in the final four. They were regressing after beating NE/MD 62-3 just barely getting by Sparty/TTUN. But hey, they only had one fluke loss against ped and Ohio State = tv ratings so what the hey! And ped had been blown out by TTUN.

This year could be a clusterfuck for the committee. Enjoy!

 

[ShowMeBuck]

To further clarify the point, the fear is 2 Big 12 teams getting in. Ie TCU beats Oklahoma and they are 3, Oklahoma 4.

Hahahahaha. Two teams from the big 12. That’s some funny shit.

 

[UrbanBuckeye]

This is just the best:



No more smiles, Dantonio. Goodnight.

On a related note....


LOLOLOLOL....

My Mom just found my elderly father's flip phone with a text from my complete douchebag of a brother saying,

"I'll call you later when Michigan State beats the crap out of Ohio State"

Makes it even more sweet since he's gotten so much worse this year, practically accusing my Mom of neglecting my Dad.

 

[AJHawkfan]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?addata=espn:ncf:playoff

This has probably already been posted, but is kind of an interesting toy to put different scenarios into motion. From what I can gather, it makes virtually no difference to our playoff chances if Wisky beats scUM or not.

If we win out, it shows a 65% chance of making the playoffs.

 

[UrbanBuckeye]

My favorite argument from last night, justifying Clemson’s position: they’ve beaten 7 teams at or above .500. Those teams?

Auburn 8-2
Virginia Tech 7-3
NC State 7-3
Wake Forest 6-4
Louisville 6-4
Georgia Tech 5-4
Boston College 5-5

Sure, the win over Auburn is impressive, but the whole “they’ve beaten 7 teams at or above .500” is cherry picking at it’s finest. Wake Forest has played well, for Wake Forest’s standards, but they still fucking suck. Louisville, GT, BC are trash. NC State has had their best season in over a decade, and still have 3 losses. Ditto for Va Tech.

Don’t take this as me comparing Ohio State to Clemson. Just simply pointing out how ridiculous the media spin of Clemson is this year.

Didn't you know the reigning NC gets an automatic bid the following year?! Doesn't matter who you beat! Who you lose to....

In fact, the reigning NC's losses only count as HALF a loss.

I mean... except for 2015, of course.

 

[Jake]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?addata=espn:ncf:playoff

This has probably already been posted, but is kind of an interesting toy to put different scenarios into motion. From what I can gather, it makes virtually no difference to our playoff chances if Wisky beats scUM or not.

If we win out, it shows a 65% chance of making the playoffs.

View attachment 16896

The problem with that statistical analysis is it looks at the committee as a logical entity when it's actually a subjective one. Winning doesn't automatically move a team up versus everyone else. You can win and drop - it's happened in previous CFPs. So from that standpoint I absolutely believe it helps whatever case we have if Wisconsin is undefeated when we beat them.

 

[Jake]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?addata=espn:ncf:playoff

This has probably already been posted, but is kind of an interesting toy to put different scenarios into motion. From what I can gather, it makes virtually no difference to our playoff chances if Wisky beats scUM or not.

If we win out, it shows a 65% chance of making the playoffs.

View attachment 16896

Played with that thing a bit and that 65% drops if other things happen. For example, Wisconsin losing to Michigan - go check some more boxes. The worst thing for us is Bama losing once.

The highest percentage I got for us is 68%. That's with Clemson, Bama, and Oklahoma winning out, along OSU winning out (and beating undefeated Wisconsin).

 

[UrbanBuckeye]

To further clarify the point, the fear is 2 Big 12 teams getting in. Ie TCU beats Oklahoma and they are 3, Oklahoma 4.

Wait....

Did Bob Bowlsby tell you this?

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Whether it's Ohio State getting in or the Big Ten getting left out. Either scenario is going to fan the flames for 8 teams, which is what I've wanted all along. 5 conference champs, top G5 school and 2 at-large. First round games at home stadiums. Swiss fucking watch if I understand it correctly.

If you can live with it potentially hurting The Game

The auto conference bid could lead to a year like this one where the B1G CCG is locked up beforehand and a coach is put in a tough position.

No auto-bids for conference champs...take the top eight based on the committee rankings.

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Played with that thing a bit and that 65% drops if other things happen. For example, Wisconsin losing to Michigan - go check some more boxes. The worst thing for us is Bama losing once.

I agree. Last week was the week that Bama losing helped us. Now, we need them to run the table.

It benefits us if the PAC champion is from the North rather than USC.

Domers losing again wouldn't hurt just to be safe. Plus, fuck Notre Dame.

Miami/Clemson worries me if Clemson wins closely in the CG. Miami unleashing a plunger on Clemson would be nice insurance.

Okie wins out.

Makes us the strongest 2-loss champion with no 1-loss non-Champions.

That should give us

1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State

 

[AJHawkfan]

The problem with that statistical analysis is it looks at the committee as a logical entity when it's actually a subjective one. Winning doesn't automatically move a team up versus everyone else. You can win and drop - it's happened in previous CFPs. So from that standpoint I absolutely believe it helps whatever case we have if Wisconsin is undefeated when we beat them.

Oh I hear ya and agree with you 100%. I don't expect the CFP committee will produce exactly the same results, either in teams or seedings.

I was able to get us to 71% with us, Clemson, Alabama & Oklahoma winning out, along with PedSt & Sparty. Interestingly enough, that number dropped to 66% if da U wins out instead of Clemson.

 

[Jake]

Oh I hear ya and agree with you 100%. I don't expect the CFP committee will produce exactly the same results, either in teams or seedings.

I was able to get us to 71% with us, Clemson, Alabama & Oklahoma winning out, along with PedSt & Sparty. Interestingly enough, that number dropped to 66% if da U wins out instead of Clemson.

View attachment 16898

If Bama, Miami, TCU, and Ohio State win out our chances go up to 81%. That's the highest I've seen.

If nothing else, this thing is fun to mess with - scUM and ND got no higher than 2% in any scenario.

 

[shiloh]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?addata=espn:ncf:playoff

If we win out, it shows a 65% chance of making the playoffs.

As someone who followed Nate's 538 site religiously from 2008 to 2012, and yes he was quite accurate re: 2008 presidential election, but forecasts can be tricky.



College Football / Presidential Elections ~ Apples and Oranges

btw, what were the odds Iowa would defeat the Buckeyes by 31?

Again, don't put the cart before the horse. Beat Illinois. hmm, does that explain Iowa ~ cart/horse?

Baseball is ninety percent mental. The other half is physical.

Yielding back the balance of my time ...

 

[AJHawkfan]

If Bama, Miami, TCU, and Ohio State win out our chances go up to 81%. That's the highest I've seen.

If nothing else, this thing is fun to mess with - scUM and ND got no higher than 2% in any scenario.

Add the Pedsters, Sparty, Iowa & FSU?? to your list of teams winning out and it pushes us up to 90%. Nice way to kill some time, if nothing else.