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2017 College Football Playoffs (and Other Bowl Games)

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538.com gives us a 62% chance of making the playoff if we win out.

Sounds high, doesn't it? Not so much though. There are six teams with 0 or 1 loss. Three of these teams have to lose another game (in the "we win out" scenario) because they play each other.

Alabama
Clemson
Oklahoma
Miami
Wisconsin
Georgia

Alabama/Georgia
Clemson/Miami
Wisconsin/OSU

So the 62% vs 38% is a prediction of a few things...first is the scenarios leading up to the final deciding games like Wisconsin winning out till the BTC game (we would obviously benifit greatly from a victory over an undeafeated Wisconsin), or Miami/Oklahoma winning the rest of their regular season games. There are countless ways it could play out in that respect.
Second is a prediction of what would happen if all the favorites win the remainder of regular season games, in which case it would be....

-Oklahoma
-winner of Alabama/Georgia
-winner of Clemson/Miami
-OSU, loser of Alabama/Georgia, loser of Clemson/Miami, ND, 2+ loss PAC10 champ, Auburn, ....?

I'd think in that scenario we'd be in...of course there are endless variables, not the least of which is the way teams win/lose games....just sayin-there's actually a decent chance we'd be in if we go 3-0 in the next three games.
 
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Zurp said:
I hope the cards fall to where Ohio State gets a chance, but if I were to be a voter, I'd have a really hard time voting for a team that lost by 31 to a 3-loss team... well, now a 4-loss team.
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this is my position. ohio state was railroaded by oklahoma, but so was georgia by auburn. and notre dame by miami. and usc by notre dame. and tcu by oklahoma. those are comparable shellackings to comparable teams. the difference, however, is that ohio state also suffered an even worse drubbing to a team that now has four losses. from my vantage point, such a team vacates any shot at a national title.

that being stated, there is still football to be played and we don't know how the team's résumé will stack up against the others after conference championships are decided. regardless, there won't be any complaints from me even if, say, nd gets in over us. what you think you deserve doesn't matter at all to me when you twice crap your pants on a public stage.
 
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Thump said:
We're not making it and not good enough to win it unfortunately.
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Ehh, I'm not sure about that. This teams A-game can win it. You just don't know if you'll get it. As for actually getting in, before Iowa I was at 99%, after Iowa 1%, and after msu (and nd/Georgia losing) I'd say 20%. 11-2 osu is in over pac12 and nd imo. So the question is if a conference runner up makes it in over osu. I'd put it at an 80% that a combination of one of the following happens: 2 loss Georgia, 1 loss Miami, 2 loss Clemson, and 2 loss Oklahoma get in over osu. How I see a 20% chance of osu getting in is Oklahoma winning out, bama winning out but Georgia loses to gt before the bama game, and somehow either Clemson or Miami loses before they play. There's a chance that happens, but not likely. And maybe like 10% not 20%.
 
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I simply give a shit about the 4 best teams slugging it out. And I don’t care where they come from. If one conference has all 4, so be it.

This year looks like there is more parity in the top 6-8 than any time in recent memory so it won’t be easy. As an OSU fan maybe that helps. If it’s hard to tell from the eye ball test then perhaps 1 or 2 losses is less meaningful and more focus is on being a conference champ and, more importantly, looking legit in that CCG.
 
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While OSU has the worst loss among 2 loss teams (I'm not looking into it too deeply, I just assume it must be true) they are also the best 2 loss team, as a conference champion - should it play out that way, of course. Certainly not going to get my hopes up at this point, but the path got a bit wider yesterday. Just take care of bizznizz and see what happens, I suppose.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
While OSU has the worst loss among 2 loss teams (I'm not looking into it too deeply, I just assume it must be true) they are also the best 2 loss team, as a conference champion - should it play out that way, of course. Certainly not going to get my hopes up at this point, but the path got a bit wider yesterday. Just take care of bizznizz and see what happens, I suppose.
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Yup. Had the Buckeyes at least made it a close, hard fought game at Kinnick Stadium, they'd have an argument. Giving up 48 offensive points to a team that didn't even score on offense a week later in inexcusable. Unless OSU beats Wisconsin by 70 in the B1G, I wouldn't put them in if I was the committee. Just way too inconsistent.
 
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The case for OSU has begun being discussed by national media

College football winners and losers: Auburn, Ohio State and the case for a two-loss playoff team
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People making the unforgivable sin argument need to understand it's relative. If there is enough chaos (a la 2007) then the committee will have a bunch of flawed teams to choose from and a B1G conference champion OSU with quality wins, a "good loss" to OU and one horrifying blemish will have as good a resume as anyone else.

Possibly
 
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