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- Thread starter LitlBuck
- Start date
Jake
Once a Buckeye, always a Buckeye
‘17 The Deuce Champ
Fantasy Baseball Champ
'18 The Deuce Champ
Yeah, I'll be shocked if the Bucks can win in their barn. I'm just hoping it's a competitive game.
It's a much needed test, though, after a few cakewalks since the Providence game. A chance to see what needs to improve (besides FT shooting) before the conference season.
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this team has struggled against against weaker comp than marshall over the last couple years and now that we actually are starting to blow these types of teams out (without KBD) people are still complaining. look no one thinks "hey they beat Marshall, theyre going to the final 4" but damn give these guys a little credit. most points scored in a game since 1991. seen some pretty good basketball from multiple guys. especially like how TT is playing and Lyle has seemingly kicked it into high gear. now they could go out on Wed. night and lose by 30 and look flat but i highly doubt it.
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When is the last time the Buckeyes were competent from the FT line? I can't remember. I could be wrong but it seems like the same story every year.
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OSU_Buckguy
Head Coach
for over 30 years, the nationwide average of college free throw shooting has been between a bit over 67% and a bit over 69%. except for this incomplete season and matta's first at ohio state, each season was between 68% and 72%. that's neither competent nor incompetent. it's just, well, average.
on average, a team shoots 20 free throws per game. a percentage point is worth 1 more made free throw per 5 games. sure, we'd like to see our program average 75% each season, but that is unreasonable. since 2000, duke is about 72-73% from the line overall. that is more or less the standard for a perennial powerhouse that signs shooters. ohio state has probably averaged 68-69% since matta's arrival. that equates to duke making about 4 more free throws over 5 games, which is under 1 more made free throw per game. sure, small statistical differences grow in magnitudes of importance as the number of games increase, but i still don't see this as a major outlier when comparing the programs over a long period of time.
a handful of years ago, i decided to look at each game that ohio state lost in order to determine how impactful free throw shooting actually was. mind you, if ohio state loses by 4 and shoots 10/20 from the line, it's still a reach to claim free throw shooting as the primary culprit. the bucks would have needed to shoot 15/20 in order to win. sure, 75% should be the goal and should even be expected; however, if you have to shoot 75% from line to change the loss to a win, then i think there are larger factors that determined the loss. to be sure, losses are decided by cumulative reasons.
anyway, with this in mind, i looked for losses where free throw shooting were absolutely a major, if not primary, culprit. if i remember correctly, i think i found something like 3 (or fewer) losses over 6 years or so. i would guess that that was no more than other comparable teams.
now after having stated all of that, this year's 59.5% is horrible. it is pathetic. there is no excuse, especially for a team that is shooting a very respectable 38.7% from 3. i hate to single out players and especially those who hustle and are team-oriented, but tate really drops the average (45% for a team-high 29 attempts). unfortunately, he averaged only a bit better last year at 52% and suffered a shoulder injury in between, so i don't think this average will increase much this year. for our own sanity, i think it's best to expect no more than 50% for tate and hope he at least makes the first of a 1-and-1.
potter and wesson are the other "culprits." they are a combined 1/12. since both were decent-to-exceptional free throw shooters in high school, i suspect that it's only a matter of time before they shake the freshman jitters, which are very, very easy to see in micah. once he gains some confidence in that he truly belongs, he'll shine as a shooter.
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Thanks. The national numbers help add some perspective. I didn't realize national averages were so low. If you ask me (not that anyone is asking,) I'd say that anything below 70% is terrible. They are FREE throws. I agree that the numbers this year are awful. I AM one who would see 10/20 from FT in a 4 pt loss and blame the FT shooting as a reason for the loss but I think 75% should be easily achievable. It's just too easy to think "man, if they just made 5 more FT out of 10...easy shots without defensive pressure...they would have won." I suppose I just don't take the national landscape in to consideration when holding my judgement.
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OSU_Buckguy
Head Coach
i understand that it seems averages should be higher than 70% since the shot is unguarded. i was a bit off in my accuracy in the last post, though. it's not just the last 30 years that averages have centered closely on 68 to 69%. the 69% average extends back to the 60s. the only way we're going to see a non-marginal change in free throw shooting percentages is for there to be a seismic change in free throw shooting form. until then, that average is a set-in-stone standard.
in regards to the belief that college players should be averaging 75%, well, that's the average for the nba going back to the 60s. these are the best-of-the-best whose full-time job is to be the best. sure, if the nba free throw shooting average had decreased over time, one could argue that players today are inferior shooters compared to the players from decades past when jumpshot-to-dunk ratios were much higher (or non-existent) and whitey mastered the 14-foot bank shot.
in short, 69% and 75% are pretty much physical constants like the speed of light in a vacuum, the mass of a proton, and a ttun loss to osu.
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OHSportsFan
Fan of Ohio Sports in Indy
Tremendous stuff and a good perspective. This is why I am glad to see @OSU_Buckguy back as a regular poster.
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HabaneroBuck
Non-Nike Design
Excellent break down of FT's. The only stat I wish were incorporated into FT's is the missing of the front end of a 1 and 1. I've seen Wesson do that twice, so his 0 for 6 is actually a little worse in terms of potential points missed. 10 for 20, for instance, very well could be the reason a team lost by 4, not just for the lack of a desired 75%, but by reason of the compounding effect from a missed front-end.
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OSU_Buckguy
Head Coach
i'd like to see that stat, too. i just don't know if ohio state over the years would be an outlier, though. my guess is that teams suffer failed front ends consistent with their free throw shooting percentage. that's just a guess.
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HabaneroBuck
Non-Nike Design
Well, now that I step back and look at the forest, this is exactly the game these guys needed. A win at Virginia, and they would have been full of themselves, continually convinced they could win while playing with the mental errors we saw last night. An ugly loss, and they would start doubting whether they can compete with the big dogs. They lost that game, Virginia did not win it, and the whole team knows it. A two-point loss on the road to a top ACC team, with no contributions from Kam and KBD? I see lots of good coming out of this one. 50% FG, 61 points against a team ranked 1 in the country at 44 per game, held them to 37.5% shooting, etc...
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nomatta
Hall of Fame
It is going to be extra difficult for this team to be a 75% FT shooting team because Tate, who plays like a PF on offense, is the guy going to the line most for us. And he is an abysmal FT shooter. Unless Tate suddenly gets a lot better or the rest of the team becomes great at FTs (or someone who is good at FTs starts going to the line a lot more than they are now--here's lookin' at you, Kam), we're probably doomed to sub-70% for this season and next.
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HabaneroBuck
Non-Nike Design
In case anyone wants hope for us against UCLA later this month, Marshall plays a lot like UCLA, and they went out and beat the Ohio Bobcats by ten last night, 98-88. I don't know how good Marshall is, but the fact that we dominated a pretty good up-tempo team at their own game bodes well for us against UCLA. I like everything I've seen about UCLA, and I actually want to see them do well this year, just not on the 17th in Las Vegas. Hopefully they get hyped up and beat Kentucky at Rupp, then have a let-down against us. Hey, a guy can wish...
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