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2015 Offense Discussion

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People are acting like the offense isn't working and I just don't buy that. Quick glance at some numbers;

OSU offense is averaging 452 ypg and 34.4 ppg. Those numbers are down about 50 yards and 10 points from last year but they are still quite good (top 25% of all CFB)
Measuring points per play for overall explosion and offensive efficiency finds OSU 17th in the country at .507 ppp down slightly from last years mark of .596 which would be top 5 this year.

The problem is 3rd down conversions and, to a lesser degree, turnovers.

OSU is currently at 2.6 giveaways per game which is 112th in the country. Last year it was 1.7 which still isn't great. I chalk this up to Urbans offense and it looks like somewhere around 2 is a realistic expectation.

3rd down conversion % is currently sitting at 34.85% good for 91st in the country. Last year it was 52.02% which would be top 5 in the country this year. The reason this is such a double whammy? The sheer number of 3rd downs OSU faces per game.

OSU currently sits 106th in the nation at 13.2 3rd downs per game, which is the exact same figure they faced per game in 2014.

Another compounding factor with 3rd downs is that 13.2 per game is coming against fewer plays.

OSU plays per game in 2015 is 67.8, good for 101st nationally. Last year it was 75.1 plays per game which puts you in the top 25% this year.

Fewer plays per game, same number of 3rd downs faced, fewer converted = top 25-30 type offense instead of a top 5-10 type offense.

Unfuck 3rd down and it all gets better
 
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3rd down is a problem, but I think at this point it's tertiary to two much bigger issues:
- Redzone
- Turnovers

YPG is great and all... but meaningless if you stall close to the endzone.
The turnovers are a team issue, but Cardale is in the thick of it as one of the violators.
The Redzone is largely on Cardale imo.
 
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kujirakira said:
3rd down is a problem, but I think at this point it's tertiary to two much bigger issues:
- Redzone
- Turnovers

YPG is great and all... but meaningless if you stall close to the endzone.
The turnovers are a team issue, but Cardale is in the thick of it as one of the violators.
The Redzone is largely on Cardale imo.
Click to expand...


Looking at those numbers;

Red Zone attempts per game 2.6 per game, good for 66th.
In 2015 they averaged 4.9 attempts per game, that would be top 5 in the country right now.

RedZone scoring percentage is 77% (FG & TD) in 2014, last year it was 85%

So half the redzone attempts per game and a slightly lower conversion %.

I'd theorize that the fewer attempts are due to the 3rd down problems allowing them to get down into the RZ.

TO's are a pain in the ass but not significantly higher than last year but that said, TO's are like goals in hockey. Timing can be brutal and not captured in the numbers.
 
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We had 6 RZ trips yesterday and walked away with a paltry 13 points.
That's terrible. Really terrible.

One Jalin fumbled away.
One Cardale intercepted away.
1 FG after Cardale missed 2 open guys
1 FG after missing on 3rd and 3
1 TD to Thomas
And a 6th where Cardale was sacked, tackled for a loss, and Brax got penalized.
 
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kujirakira said:
We had 6 RZ trips yesterday and walked away with a paltry 13 points.
That's terrible. Really terrible.

One Jalin fumbled away.
One Cardale intercepted away.
1 FG after Cardale missed 2 open guys
1 FG after missing on 3rd and 3
1 TD to Thomas
And a 6th where Cardale was sacked, tackled for a loss, and Brax got penalized.
Click to expand...

Yeah, yesterday the RZ TO's were bad but overall for the season that hasn't been the biggest issue.

3rd down conversions "normalize" toward 2015 levels and all the hand wringing over the offense will die down is my belief.
 
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kujirakira said:
We had 6 RZ trips yesterday and walked away with a paltry 13 points.
That's terrible. Really terrible.

One Jalin fumbled away.
One Cardale intercepted away.
1 FG after Cardale missed 2 open guys
1 FG after missing on 3rd and 3
1 TD to Thomas
And a 6th where Cardale was sacked, tackled for a loss, and Brax got penalized.
Click to expand...

Just curious as to how the above supports your proposition that "the redzone is largely on Cardale."

1. On Marshall
2. On Cardale
3. For the sake of argument, we'll say on Cardale
4. Elliott ran for 7 yards, Elliott ran for no gain, and incomplete pass on 3rd down. Can't really see this as being "on Cardale."
5. Cardale threw a TD
6. Cardale threw another TD, but it was called back due to Braxton's penalty. Cardale was tackled for a loss on 3rd down when Boren snapped the ball badly.

I can't see that the above is "largely on Cardale."
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Yeah, yesterday the RZ TO's were bad but overall for the season that hasn't been the biggest issue.

3rd down conversions "normalize" toward 2015 levels and all the hand wringing over the offense will die down is my belief.
Click to expand...
Funny, there was lots of handwringing last year over JT in the Red Zone last year. CJ was actually better in the the RZ. Team was 84.06% on the season and 91.67% with CJ. Just 76% right now.
 
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1. Jalin
2. Cardale
3. Is clearly on Cardale -- both were open and he missed not once, but twice
4. Team, incl Cardale
5. Cardale and Thomas
6. Cardale sacked alone is enough to give him responsibility, it's also QB's responsibility to organize the team presnap
 
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Jaxbuck said:
OSU offense is averaging 452 ypg and 34.4 ppg. Those numbers are down about 50 yards and 10 points from last year but they are still quite good (top 25% of all CFB)
Measuring points per play for overall explosion and offensive efficiency finds OSU 17th in the country at .507 ppp down slightly from last years mark of .596 which would be top 5 this year.
Click to expand...
What are the numbers if you take away the home runs? It doesn't seem like we know how to do any drives....it's either a long EZ touchdown or a punt waiting to happen.
 
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Another thing that I see is penalties.

Now this isn't exclusive to offense obviously but OSU is 100th in number of penalties per game and worse than that in yards per penalty (over 10).

Both are up from last year.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
look at the numbers and buy whatever you want to

I'm talking about the season, you are focused on yesterdays game
Click to expand...

Fair enough. It's still fresh in my mind.
The 3rd downs are also terrible, not trying to take away from it... but... just hate seeing turnovers and wasted redzone trips.
As are the penalties you pointed out.
There's a lot of inefficiency going on right now and there isn't any 1 single problem (though the Cardale lovers seem to get easily offended if you bring up his part in it)
 
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