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2013 Preseason and regular polls

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Does Sagarin make sense to anyone? Northern Illinois is #3 in the "Pure Elo" in which he says "only winning and losing matters". Iowa, Idaho, Eastern Illinois, Purdue, Kent State, Akron, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan...that's the schedule that gets you #3 when only winning and losing matters?
 
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Abenaki said:
Does Sagarin make sense to anyone? Northern Illinois is #3 in the "Pure Elo" in which he says "only winning and losing matters". Iowa, Idaho, Eastern Illinois, Purdue, Kent State, Akron, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan...that's the schedule that gets you #3 when only winning and losing matters?
Click to expand...

It's ok when we finish beating Purdue we should atleast jump to #2
 
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Abenaki said:
Does Sagarin make sense to anyone? Northern Illinois is #3 in the "Pure Elo" in which he says "only winning and losing matters". Iowa, Idaho, Eastern Illinois, Purdue, Kent State, Akron, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan...that's the schedule that gets you #3 when only winning and losing matters?
Click to expand...

That ranking is the one where he does it the way BCS says he has to do it. In his other ranking where he does it the way he prefers, Northern Illinois is ranked #51.
 
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Sagarin has always been a bit wonky imo, along with Kenneth-Massey which it seems has consistently had an SEC bias over the years. Not sure how that gets baked in, but [shrugs]
I generally like the Colley Matrix. What's particularly fun is that you can go to his website and "change history" -- or fast forward to see the probably impact of beating or losing to future opponents.
I started playing with it in 2006; but of course there's a particularly relevant example this year with Wisconsin. If you remove the recorded result of ASU beating Wisconsin; Wisconsin moves from 41 to 26; ASU drops from 22 to 36; and Ohio State moves to #1.
 
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jlb1705 said:
That ranking is the one where he does it the way BCS says he has to do it. In his other ranking where he does it the way he prefers, Northern Illinois is ranked #51.
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Right...I understand how that works. I just don't understand how NIU can be #3 based purely on wins and losses given that schedule. Like Mario said, if wins over Iowa and Purdue are that impressive, Ohio State should be no lower than #2 next week...
 
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There's something other than schedule going into it. Given the undefeated schools below, Sagarin identifies NIU as having the easiest (127th) schedule.
However, the ranking of these schools do not follow his schedule difficulty at all.

Sorted by BCS' pure ELO not using score
upload_2013-10-30_6-42-42.png


Sorted by schedule difficulty
upload_2013-10-30_6-44-15.png


As you can see it doesn't follow schedule difficulty at all. According to Sagarin there is almost no difference between FSU and Ohio State's schedules. Yet based purely on wins and losses, FSU is #1 while we're #5.
My first guess would be that FSU has only played 7 while we've played 8. However, NIU has also played 8 yet magically jumps to 3 based off ??? Who knows because the formulas they use are not published.
 

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Oh sweet. Dennis Dodd needed hits. HAHA

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...t-but-lousy-big-ten-is-ruining-its-bcs-dreams

Ohio State's national championship run needs help. But first Ohio State needs a conference that is worthy of it.
You probably haven't noticed: A Big Ten flagship is ranked fourth, has won 20 in a row and you'd think it was playing in Conference USA. That's because it sure doesn't seem like Ohio State is actually playing in the Big Ten. Not the one you and I grew up watching.

During that current 20-game winning streak, the Buckeyes have beaten Wisconsin, Penn State -- both twice -- Michigan State, Michigan and Nebraska.

Nice accomplishment if it's 1978. In 2013, eyebrows barely twitch. Penn State has been stripped bare by the NCAA. Michigan State has a severe offense/defense imbalance. Nebraska has been the best -- and worst -- team you've seen these last five years to win at least nine games. Michigan? Not. Quite. There. Yet.
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LovelandBuckeye said:
Oh sweet. Dennis Dodd needed hits. HAHA

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...t-but-lousy-big-ten-is-ruining-its-bcs-dreams
Click to expand...

This wouldn't be a big issue if the Pac12 could maintain their competitiveness and Cal would have still been good, if the SEC would stop cancelling their games against other people and we'd have an allmighty SEC team to play with, if AAC title contender didn't cancel their game on us, and if people realized the MAC is a decent Mid Major conference and the team we played is undefeated in conference play and is already gonig to a bowl.

They keep blaming the B1G Conference, when every other conference is just as guilty and when people just want to deny what Ohio State has accomplished (see UCF last year when we played them and UCF at the end of the season as well as UCF this season)
 
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HorseshoeFetish said:
Can't wait to see how underrated Sparty is.
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Not only Sparty, but Minny too. They have quietly put together a 7-2 season, much of the wins coming without their HC. Their two losses were bad but expected at the time. They did redeem themselves with an eleven point win over a ranked Nebraska team. If they can make it past Wisky in two weeks - watch for a big game between them and Sparty for their division.

That said, Buckeyes handled business in the manner they needed to. Its too late in the season to wonder "what if we had been doing this all along". That ship has sailed and we need teams ahead of to lose.

I said it in the game thread and I will say it again, timing is EVERYTHING in the BCS. If you lose, do it early. If you want to make headlines, do it late. Right now the Buckeyes are staring down the possibility of not playing a ranked team the rest of the season, to include the B1G championship game. A bye week, followed up by Illinois and Indiana (6 total wins) is a lousy way to finish the year when we are trying to fend off other teams.

Baylor has been playing the way the Buckeyes are playing now all season long. They have posted 70+ point wins (one 69 pointer) four times this year. They are also about to square off with: #10 Oklahoma, #15 TTU, #18 Okie State, and Texas. Their late season resume is a much more impressive than the Buckeyes and Im sure the pollsters will see it that way.

Im in no way saying that I think Baylor is better, but we as Buckeye fans are gushing over the Bucks because of the last two games; something Baylor fans have been doing all season long. They are pretty much the mirror image of the Buckeyes, but in a different (and just as down) conference. It doesn't matter what we as fans think, all that matters is what the pollsters think at crucial times in the season. And given the the two teams resume in the next weeks, I fear that there is a possibility that we could be jumped by Baylor if they win out. This isn't the 90s, this isn't 2002. There are too many conferences with too many options that can go undefeated. We are no longer in the "win and it will work itself out" years. OOC games, style points, and conference parity matters. We see that Boise State is no longer in the picture because of their SOS.
 
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