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2011 Big Ten Leaders Division Race

Since 1904, tOSU has lost 5 or more games in a season exactly 6 times. Add 5 seasons that were at or sub .500 in the late teens/early twenties and you'll see that the odds are in my favor.

http://buckeyefansonly.com/yearlyresults.html

I realize that off the field distractions and a new starting QB can have serious implications, but had TP played all year, and next year Braxton started for the first time, no one would think it reasonable to predict 5 losses.

It's as if some are forgetting the talent level on this team. Wisky and Nebraska are the only teams that I think are equal talent wise, and I'm not intimidated by the crowd of 300 U fans that will be on hand for the game in South beach. They aren't in our class either, but with some luck could pull it off.

I think it's reasonable to expect a 2-1 split here, though all three games are clearly winnable.

I realize it smacks of hubris, but really, who else on this schedule is good enough to beat a focused buckeye team? And don't say Sparty. Really, I mean it. 49-7 and they lost more than people want to admit. Certainly not Illinois either? Sheelhouse (sp?) can't compensate for the loss of LeShoure alone, and didn't they lose a big time D lineman as well? Not to say they can't reload, but isn't that what we're discussing here? I like our chances better than theirs.

Then accounting for one game, maybe two where we are not focused and relive the distress of 2009 Purdue, we have maybe lost 3-4 games. If that's the case, by the time we get to the bowl game, (very likely against a team with inferior talent, though surely not a given), this young team will have had time to gel and that new qb won't be new anymore.

All of this still doesn't account for the fact that we have one of the best defensive teams/coaching staffs in the country. We have taken personnel losses like this before. And before anyone starts with the only 4 returning starters thing, let me point out that like ESPiN, this means you're forgetting a few crucial things about last year.

Who were our secondary starters at the begging of the year last year? Tyler Moeller (back this year), Christian Bryant then filled in, extremely well for the record (back this year) and I'm forgetting one more (drawing a blank, what can I say). That's enough in the secondary, particularly with Doran Grant coming in along with the transfer who is now eligible (name?), to make me feel at least secure if not confident that the secondary will be fine.

LB's. Do I need to really comment here? Didn't think so. Eat it PSU.

D Line will be solid, even without a huge rotation (which we didn't exactly have last year either). I expect a solid sophomore campaign for Big John Hankins as well.

You see where I'm going here? (besides just rambling, rambling, rambling...)

So the D will still be good/great. Running game looks to be similar with a solid O line and a stable. Add in Stoneburner, Hall out wide along with whichever youngster can manage to hold on to the ball and tell me that this team isn't much more complete than 1999, if not 2004 (when we only lost 4 games, btw).

So, that said, I'm taking 2 or 3 to 1 odds on us losing less than 5 games this year, thinking I'm alright with that bet.

Forgive the Rant, but I believe in this team and if I lose, then the bet will be the least of my worries as I will have probably flipped out and incurred legal expenses that far surpass the wager.

:oh:
 
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tOSU will be better than most everyone you will see on your schedule on paper, certainly better athletes. The only thing I could see as a problem would be injury at the quarterback position. But that could be any team, really. Still, if you have to throw a freshman into the fire without first string practice rep experience because of injury to a QB, I'd think there have to be teams good enough to stack the box and shut you down. If Florida (with a lesser shot at success this year than y'all) has Brantley go down, we are looking at a six loss season. All things being equal, I see four losses as your worst case scenario.

Both defenses will keep us in all of our games. Well, except maybe Bama.
 
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Gatorubet;1964312; said:
tOSU will be better than most everyone you will see on your schedule on paper, certainly better athletes. The only thing I could see as a problem would be injury at the quarterback position. But that could be any team, really. Still, if you have to throw a freshman into the fire without first string practice rep experience because of injury to a QB, I'd think there have to be teams good enough to stack the box and shut you down. If Florida (with a lesser shot at success this year than y'all) has Brantley go down, we are looking at a six loss season. All things being equal, I see four losses as your worst case scenario.

Both defenses will keep us in all of our games. Well, except maybe Bama.

I would say that one or more injuries to the OL could be harder to overcome. Our QB is going to be "new" in that we will have a new starter and a player who has not had the game on his shoulders. But, whoever that ends up being they get to play behind a fairly good starting OL. If injuries chip away at that group then a young QB gets a harder and harder job.
 
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Tony Gerdeman looks at Indiana, projected to finish at the bottom of the division.

For the division names, It helps me to think of tOSU as a leader (since they've been winning titles recently), and TSUN as a legend, since their glory days are way in the past.

Ozone

Scandal Most Likely To Rock the Program

Cougar-gate. Not to be confused with the "Cougar-gate" that prompted Bret Bielema to finally get married. This one will have something to do with John Mellencamp wanting to make the Hoosier mascot an actual live cougar who wears a leather jacket and smokes four packs of cigarettes per day.

Cont'd ...
Hopefully Indiana can win at home against Virginia, beat Ball State in Indy, and at North Texas State, so they don't embarrass the B1G and damage tOSU's SOS.
 
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Tony Gerdeman has Purdue going 6-6, 3-5 in conference games.

Ozone

One Prediction

The total points scored in the Ohio State game will be under 25.


Scandal Most Likely To Rock the Program

Cadaver-gate. Due to the amount of torn ACLs that the Boilermakers have suffered over the years, a medical breakthrough was sought in the form of baboon ACLs. Things appeared to be going well until it was found out that the ACLs weren't actually coming from baboons, but instead from cadavers from a local Victorian-era medical college.

Cont'd ...
 
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Tony Gerdeman has the Illini ending up 8-4, with 4-4 being 4th in the Leaders.

Ozone

Scandal Most Likely To Rock the Program

Shark-gate. Inspired by his water skiing idle, The Fonz, Ron Zook will attempt to duplicate his hero's greatest non-Tuscadero-related accomplishment--the jumping of a shark while on water skis. After successfully accomplishing the jump, it will be revealed that Zook actually jumped a dolphin. He will try to counter the revelation by claiming that "despite being just a dolphin, this fish was from the rough part of town."


If The Head Coach Was a Superhero, What Would His Super Power Be?
Super cooling. But not in the way you're thinking. He's a cooler in the way casinos use coolers. He brings about bad results from successful people. Look at the way he cooled Arrelious Benn after his sophomore season. He's a sorcerer.

Cont'd ...
 
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Tony Gerdeman has Penn State finishing third in this division, losing to Bama, Iowa, tOSU, and Wiscy.

Ozone

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

At Indiana. Being from Nowheresville, Pennsylvania, you'd love to experience the bright lights and big city of anywhere else in the world, but in order to avoid the scorching of your rods and cones, might we suggest those bright lights be eased in via the quaint town of Bloomington, Indiana. Sure, at first it will seem like Las Vegas to you, but eventually you'll see that it's not all that scary.

Cont'd ...
 
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Tony Gerdeman has tOSU starting off 5-0,. then losing 3 straight games before winning the last 4 to end up 9-3, second to Wiscy in this division.

Ozone

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Can the play of quarterbacks Joe Bauserman or Braxton Miller keep the other on bench?

2. Will a running back establish himself in Boom Herron's absence?

3. Can Andrew Norwell hold up at left tackle while Mike Adams is out?

4. Will the defensive line produce the quarterback pressure that it was missing last year?

5. Can the secondary stay healthy this season?

Cont'd ...
 
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Tony has Wiscy winning every game except their trip to Sparty.

Ozone

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Will quarterback Russell Wilson really fit into this offense?
2. Can the receivers push defenses away from the line of scrimmage.

3. How do you replace J.J. Watt?

4. Can the linebackers stay healthy?

5. The Badgers aren't going to let the Spartans ruin their season again are they?

Cont'd...
 
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I ran through the B10 schedules today, and as far as the Leaders division, here's what I came up with:

Ohio State 10-2 (6-2) - losses to Sparty and Nebraska
Wisconsin 10-2 (6-2) - losses to Nebraska and tOSU
Penn State 9-3 (6-2) - losses to tOSU and Wisconsin
Illinois 7-5 (4-4)
Purdue 4-8 (1-7)
Indiana 4-8 (1-7)

Based on the new B10 tie-breaker rules, the 3 way tie would be pared down to 2 (tOSU-Wisky) since Penn State would lose to both. Then, tOSU would win the tie-breaker as a result of the head-to-head win.
 
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I ran through the B10 schedules today, and as far as the Leaders division, here's what I came up with:

Ohio State 10-2 (6-2) - losses to Sparty and Nebraska
Wisconsin 10-2 (6-2) - losses to Nebraska and tOSU
Penn State 9-3 (6-2) - losses to tOSU and Wisconsin
Illinois 7-5 (4-4)
Purdue 4-8 (1-7)
Indiana 4-8 (1-7)

Based on the new B10 tie-breaker rules, the 3 way tie would be pared down to 2 (tOSU-Wisky) since Penn State would lose to both. Then, tOSU would win the tie-breaker as a result of the head-to-head win.
Pretty damn close!!! Although I think Penn State loses to Nebraska, but not extremely confident in that since it is at Penn State.

The whole division is up in the air, any of the three teams could still make it. Will be difficult for Penn State to go 2-1 with the loss being to us, but it's possible. Will be difficult for us to go 4-0, but it's possible. So it's tough for either team. And then sits Wisconsin. Waiting for one of us to slip up and back right in.

My guess is that we will be at Thanksgiving with the Buckeyes 5-2, Wisconsin 5-2, and Penn State 5-2, with Wisconsin vs. Penn State and The Game to go.

If that happens, then it's beat Michigan to win the division. If we lose to Michigan, then the winner of PSU @ Wisconsin goes. Likely Wisconsin.
 
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