Since 1904, tOSU has lost 5 or more games in a season exactly 6 times. Add 5 seasons that were at or sub .500 in the late teens/early twenties and you'll see that the odds are in my favor.
http://buckeyefansonly.com/yearlyresults.html
I realize that off the field distractions and a new starting QB can have serious implications, but had TP played all year, and next year Braxton started for the first time, no one would think it reasonable to predict 5 losses.
It's as if some are forgetting the talent level on this team. Wisky and Nebraska are the only teams that I think are equal talent wise, and I'm not intimidated by the crowd of 300 U fans that will be on hand for the game in South beach. They aren't in our class either, but with some luck could pull it off.
I think it's reasonable to expect a 2-1 split here, though all three games are clearly winnable.
I realize it smacks of hubris, but really, who else on this schedule is good enough to beat a
focused buckeye team? And don't say Sparty. Really, I mean it. 49-7 and they lost more than people want to admit. Certainly not Illinois either? Sheelhouse (sp?) can't compensate for the loss of LeShoure alone, and didn't they lose a big time D lineman as well? Not to say they can't reload, but isn't that what we're discussing here? I like our chances better than theirs.
Then accounting for one game, maybe two where we are not focused and relive the distress of 2009 Purdue, we have maybe lost 3-4 games. If that's the case, by the time we get to the bowl game, (very likely against a team with inferior talent, though surely not a given), this young team will have had time to gel and that new qb won't be new anymore.
All of this still doesn't account for the fact that we have one of the best defensive teams/coaching staffs in the country. We have taken personnel losses like this before. And before anyone starts with the only 4 returning starters thing, let me point out that like ESPiN, this means you're forgetting a few crucial things about last year.
Who were our secondary starters at the begging of the year last year? Tyler Moeller (back this year), Christian Bryant then filled in, extremely well for the record (back this year) and I'm forgetting one more (drawing a blank, what can I say). That's enough in the secondary, particularly with Doran Grant coming in along with the transfer who is now eligible (name?), to make me feel at least secure if not confident that the secondary will be fine.
LB's. Do I need to really comment here? Didn't think so. Eat it PSU.
D Line will be solid, even without a huge rotation (which we didn't exactly have last year either). I expect a solid sophomore campaign for Big John Hankins as well.
You see where I'm going here? (besides just rambling, rambling, rambling...)
So the D will still be good/great. Running game looks to be similar with a solid O line and a stable. Add in Stoneburner, Hall out wide along with whichever youngster can manage to hold on to the ball and tell me that this team isn't much more complete than 1999, if not 2004 (when we only lost 4 games, btw).
So, that said, I'm taking 2 or 3 to 1 odds on us losing less than 5 games this year, thinking I'm alright with that bet.
Forgive the Rant, but I believe in this team and if I lose, then the bet will be the least of my worries as I will have probably flipped out and incurred legal expenses that far surpass the wager.