2010 polls - Pre-season and regular

[Steve19]

The problem with Ohio State is purely SOS. Our opponents have a combined 35-40 record so far, only 4 of 8 have winning records. Look, it's not as weak as the Boise State schedule so far (24-34, 3 of 7 have winning records). But, we did just play the Eastern Michigan of the Big Ten this year.

So, what's the surprise about the lack of respect?

Ohio State's SOS will now increase. Perhaps not enough to increase the BCS as much as folks here want, but it will get better from here on out. Let's hope that Ohio State wins out and finds a way into a BCS bowl.

 

[Tlangs]

The problem with Ohio State is purely SOS. Our opponents have a combined 35-40 record so far, only 4 of 8 have winning records. Look, it's not as weak as the Boise State schedule so far (24-34, 3 of 7 have winning records). But, we did just play the Eastern Michigan of the Big Ten this year.

So, what's the surprise about the lack of respect?

Ohio State's SOS will now increase. Perhaps not enough to increase the BCS as much as folks here want, but it will get better from here on out. Let's hope that Ohio State wins out and finds a way into a BCS bowl.

This is why I am in favor of some sort of Margin of Victory to be included in the calculation. We schedule Miami and they are supposed to be good. They shit the bed and it kills our SOS. However, we still beat them by double digits. Minny and Purdue may suck, however, we beat theam 101-10. I'm not saying use the entire margin of victory, but have some kind of factor for a 2+ score victory.

 

[Zander42]

This is why I am in favor of some sort of Margin of Victory to be included in the calculation. We schedule Miami and they are supposed to be good. They shit the bed and it kills our SOS. However, we still beat them by double digits. Minny and Purdue may suck, however, we beat theam 101-10. I'm not saying use the entire margin of victory, but have some kind of factor for a 2+ score victory.

Removing margin of victory was the dumbest thing the BCS ever did. They did it to remove the incentive to run up the score, but I would speculate that it's had the opposite effect.

Since BCS doesn't include MoV, schools have to rely on human voters to boost their position if their SoS is suspect. Human voters absolutely WILL consider margin of victory and rightly so. So, for teams in weaker conferences or for under-performing OOC foes, they are left with having to beat the snot out of everyone they can get up on so they can influence the human vote enough to offset the ding they will get from playing a bad team.

It's the easiest thing in the world to include a boost for margin of victory, but with a cap, or ever diminishing returns, once the margin gets beyond 20 to 30 points. If they would do that, the computer rankings would make a lot more sense, and you would probably a bit less running up the score, at least much beyond 30 points.

 

[Tlangs]

I just did a little math with the most recent BCS poll....


If OSU was ranked 12 in the 'puters instead of 16 (which I think is reasonable), they would leapfrog LSU.

If Wisky falls from 11 to 13 in the puters, we are at a virtual dead heat. .6573 to .6560.

I really think we will leapfrog Wisky if we both win out. Our computer polls will improve and they should fall. The computers don't look at head to head match ups. They just crunch the numbers.

If just 1 human poll puts us over Wisky, that will be enough to leapfrog them.

 

[cjmik_75]

Removing margin of victory was the dumbest thing the BCS ever did. They did it to remove the incentive to run up the score, but I would speculate that it's had the opposite effect.

Since BCS doesn't include MoV, schools have to rely on human voters to boost their position if their SoS is suspect. Human voters absolutely WILL consider margin of victory and rightly so. So, for teams in weaker conferences or for under-performing OOC foes, they are left with having to beat the snot out of everyone they can get up on so they can influence the human vote enough to offset the ding they will get from playing a bad team.

It's the easiest thing in the world to include a boost for margin of victory, but with a cap, or ever diminishing returns, once the margin gets beyond 20 to 30 points. If they would do that, the computer rankings would make a lot more sense, and you would probably a bit less running up the score, at least much beyond 30 points.

I agree voters will consider magin of victory, unless of course it's Ohio State.

Alabama and LSU gain 242 and 246 points respectively in the polls during their bye week.

Minnesota on your schedule < BYE week

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I agree voters will consider magin of victory, unless of course it's Ohio State.

Alabama and LSU gain 242 and 246 points respectively in the polls during their bye week.

Minnesota on your schedule < BYE week

It's worse than that.

In week 8, Ohio State had the following points in each poll:

Harris 1761
USAToday 936
AP 825

After beating Purdue 49-0 and Minnesota 52-10 (Combined 101 - 10) Ohio State has the following points:

Harris 1986
USAToday 1049
AP 1010

The 2 week gains for Ohio State are as follows:
Harris 225
USAToday 113
AP 185

During the Ohio State - Minnesota broadcast I noted where Mike Patrick said something to the effect of "it seems like nitpicking to me" when discussing Ohio State's reputation recently. I'd say Patrick is on to something.

 

[ScriptOhio]

Now, I do agree with you that games where Ohio State is first and G and fails to punch it in are frustrating as hell.

Well here's my "off topic" coment: I really like the looks of Carlos Hyde running north-south between the tackles. When he hits the line and the pile usually moves forward, etc. I think he would even look better if he got some carries with he 1st team offensive line, etc. He doesn't have the speed to always get around the ends; however, he could be the answer to "first and goal, and punching it in the end zone" for the next 3 years.

:osu:

 

[cjmik_75]

It's worse than that.

In week 8, Ohio State had the following points in each poll:

Harris 1761
USAToday 936
AP 825

After beating Purdue 49-0 and Minnesota 52-10 (Combined 101 - 10) Ohio State has the following points:

Harris 1986
USAToday 1049
AP 1010

The 2 week gains for Ohio State are as follows:
Harris 225
USAToday 113
AP 185

During the Ohio State - Minnesota broadcast I noted where Mike Patrick said something to the effect of "it seems like nitpicking to me" when discussing Ohio State's reputation recently. I'd say Patrick is on to something.

I get your point and actually it's even worse.

In week 8, Ohio State had the following points in each poll:

Harris 1761
USAToday 936
AP 895

The 2 week gains for Ohio State are as follows:
Harris 225
USAToday 113
AP 115



Not tryin to be a smart ass...it is what it is. The voters love to hate on Ohio State and the recent numbers don't lie. Especially when teams that have a bye week get as many points in the polls as tOSU after a 52-10 conference win on the road.


Add to the fact that after Wiscy lost to MSU thier rankings were:

USAToday 414
AP 316

...after beating Minnesota at home 41-23 the following week (right before playing tOSU) their rankings were:

USAToday 410
AP 542

For the same opponent at home and less impressively final score wise...Wiscy gains 222 points while tOSU gains only 228 for beating both Purdue and Minnesota.

 

[SloopyHangOn]

Well. Let's look at it this way.

If we win out, we pick up another BigTen title (albeit a shared one).

If we win out, we go to a BCS bowl game. (Rose or otherwise, maybe Fiesta)

If we win out, we end the season ranked in the top 5, maybe top 3.

If we win out and win our bowl game, we're probably going to be preseason #1 or #2 going into next year.

If we just win out, this negative stigma attached to the BigTen and Ohio State should go down a few notches.

I mean, FUCK.

We won the damn Rose Bowl last year against a team that was arguably BETTER than the team #1 across the board right now.

It's time for somebody to recognize.

 

[BB73]

Well. Let's look at it this way.

If we win out, we pick up another BigTen title (albeit a shared one).

If we win out, we go to a BCS bowl game. (Rose or otherwise, maybe Fiesta)

If we win out, we end the season ranked in the top 5, maybe top 3.

If we win out and win our bowl game, we're probably going to be preseason #1 or #2 going into next year.

If we just win out, this negative stigma attached to the BigTen and Ohio State should go down a few notches.

I mean, FUCK.

We won the damn Rose Bowl last year against a team that was arguably BETTER than the team #1 across the board right now.

It's time for somebody to recognize.

Very good points.

But the non-Rose BCS Bowl for tOSU would almost certainly be either the Sugar or the Orange. The Fiesta gets the last pick this year, and it will be a shock if they aren't stuck with the Big East 'champion'.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Very good points.

But the non-Rose BCS Bowl for tOSU would almost certainly be either the Sugar or the Orange. The Fiesta gets the last pick this year, and it will be a shock if they aren't stuck with the Big East 'champion'.

If it aint the BCS Championship or Rose, I'd prefer to have OSU in the Orange. Mostly because it's been a LONG time since Ohio State played in the Orange. Not sure Orange will be the most interesting match-up if Ohio State goes to play in it. ACC just doesn't impress me much.

But, I figure if it's not the Rose (or BCS Champ.) it'll probably be Sugar... probably against SEC #2.

Assuming, of course, they win out.

 

[SloopyHangOn]

If it aint the BCS Championship or Rose, I'd prefer to have OSU in the Orange. Mostly because it's been a LONG time since Ohio State played in the Orange. Not sure Orange will be the most interesting match-up if Ohio State goes to play in it. ACC just doesn't impress me much.

But, I figure if it's not the Rose (or BCS Champ.) it'll probably be Sugar... probably against SEC #2.

Assuming, of course, they win out.

Buckeye/Barner Sugar bowl would probably get better ratings than a Boise/TCU Title game.

 

[buxfan4life]

If it aint the BCS Championship or Rose, I'd prefer to have OSU in the Orange. Mostly because it's been a LONG time since Ohio State played in the Orange. Not sure Orange will be the most interesting match-up if Ohio State goes to play in it. ACC just doesn't impress me much.

But, I figure if it's not the Rose (or BCS Champ.) it'll probably be Sugar... probably against SEC #2.

Assuming, of course, they win out.

Same here, but only for selfish reasons such as them playing in my backyard and I would't have to travel for a bowl game.

 

[BrutusBobcat]

Here's a quick back of the envelope breakdown of what happened both for us and against us this week:

Previous opponents -
Ohio, W
Miami, W
Marshall, W
E. Mich, BYE
Illinois, L
Indiana, L
Purdue, L
Wisconsin, W
Minn, L

So, our SOS got help from our OOC wins. Most of the B10 games cancelled, except for Minn-MSU.

Teams ahead of us in Coach and Harris:

Oregon, W (blowout)
Auburn, W (FCS blowout)
Boise State, W (WAC blowout)
TCU, W (MWC blowout)
Alabama, L
Utah, L (u ded mon?)
Wisconsin, W

Figure that Harris and Coaches' looks like this tomorrow:

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise
5. Wisconsin
6. OSU
7. LSU/Nebraska

Teams also ahead of OSU in various computer polls:

Nebraska, W
Oklahoma, Currently losing, likely loss
LSU, W
Arizona, Currently losing, likely loss
Stanford, Currently winning, likely win
MSU, W
Missouri, Currently losing by 7
Iowa, W
Oklahoma State, W

Based on teams that lost, where OSU possibly might be in computer rankings:

AH - 11 (15)
RB - 12 (15)
CM - 11 (15)
KM - 14 (18)
JS - 13 (16)
PW - 12 (14)

So we'd move from an average rank of 15.25 to an average rank of 12. If Missouri loses, move all of those rankings up by one, probably.

Estimating on the math, my best guess is that's good for a #8 BCS ranking. I don't think a Missouri loss moves us up at all, it just helps keep anyone from leapfrogging us and possibly gets us a touch closer to Wisconsin, who I think now gets passed by LSU.

What I think the BCS will look like tomorrow:

1 Oregon
2 Auburn
3 TCU
4 BSU
5 LSU
6 Nebraska
7 Wisconsin
8 Ohio State

As things play out, our computer and human numbers will get closer, but the computers are going to hurt us all the way to the end. We have no computer advantage over any team ahead of us in the BCS rankings, and are only beating Wisconsin in one computer poll that counts (ie. isn't dropped).

 

[Jake]

Buckeye/Barner Sugar bowl would probably get better ratings than a Boise/TCU Title game.

Speaking of Boise and TCU, one of their "big" OOC wins was against Oregon State. The Beavers are now 4-4 after losing to UCLA.

Unfortunately, no voter will downgrade either of them while they roll over their cupcake schedules (especially BSU).