2010 polls - Pre-season and regular

[NateG]

MSU and Mizzou have strikingly similiar resumes and yet one is #4 and the other is #10. It just doesn't jive with me. I'm just not buying the 'puters this week. Good thing it only matters in week 13.

I'm telling you. The combined wins of opponents is a big part of the comps. Also big wins. Mizz's "big win" is seen as better than MSU's "big win". I don't like it but it is how the comps play out. At the end of the day, what you said was right. Win out and things should even out a bit for us.

 

[Tlangs]

I'm telling you. The combined wins of opponents is a big part of the comps. Also big wins. Mizz's "big win" is seen as better than MSU's "big win". I don't like it but it is how the comps play out. At the end of the day, what you said was right. Win out and things should even out a bit for us.

yeah...and I'm not saying that MSU should be above Mizzou, but they should be in the same ballpark. 4 vs. 10 to me is not the same ballpark.

 

[dragurd]

Oh so do I. I just have a major problem with a ranking model such as Saragins that has a team losing to Boise, TCU, and Washington and winning at Arizona only 2 spots behind a team that has only Lost at Wisconsin. The other wins vs OSU's are nothing of note so basically it's trying to tell us that losing to those 3 and winning at Arizona is the same as losing to Wisconsin which just strikes me as wrong.

 

[NateG]

Oh so do I. I just have a major problem with a ranking model such as Saragins that has a team losing to Boise, TCU, and Washington and winning at Arizona only 2 spots behind a team that has only Lost at Wisconsin. The other wins vs OSU's are nothing of note so basically it's trying to tell us that losing to those 3 and winning at Arizona is the same as losing to Wisconsin which just strikes me as wrong.

That's one comp. If it is biased one way or the other it gets dropped. I don't like the system either. Playing it out on the field is, in my eyes, the best way. But others don't feel that way. So if you are going to have people essentially pick the title contenders, you have to set a 3rd option to try to even things out. To try and get checks and balances.

 

[Tlangs]

I don't think there are any more teams out there that can leapfrog us unless we lose. The winner of Stanford vs. Arizona has an outside shot at it.


This weekend Bama plays LSU and Utah plays TCU. We should move up 2 spots without any "Chaos"

 

[osucollegebuck]

It has to be a pretty disappointing sunday in Boise. You'd have to assume their NC dreams are completely gone? I don't see anyway for them to get into the final game now. Even if Utah wins, you'd have to expect teams to continue leap frogging them.

 

[carly]

Well, all that said I'm still sure that a win over Iowa will do a lot for us in all of the polls but I'm unsure of how much it will do in the human voter's minds.

You would think it would negate whatever head-to-head bias everyone would have because at that point: Iowa beat Sparty at home, Sparty beat Bucky at home and Bucky beat us at home and we would have beaten Iowa on the road. Any "well Wisconsin beat Ohio State so they should be ranked ahead" talk should be completely nullified (but it won't be).

Don't forget that Wisconsin also beat Iowa on the road.

 

[Tlangs]

Don't forget that Wisconsin also beat Iowa on the road.

True, but the human polls are more "what have you done for me lately". We could jump wisky in the human polls and the bump in sos from iowa combined with wisky's weak schedule down the stretch could be the recipe for us to jump them overall. We need to pull out the plunger on Iowa.

 

[NateG]

It has to be a pretty disappointing sunday in Boise. You'd have to assume their NC dreams are completely gone? I don't see anyway for them to get into the final game now. Even if Utah wins, you'd have to expect teams to continue leap frogging them.

That is the reason that I still feel that winning out and getting a few games to fall our way could put us in. The comps will absolutely kill Boise and possibly TCU/UTAH at the end of the year. If we can end our games in the top 5 of the BCS we can sneak in. (Still the CGs and a couple of games in early december that could help). Oregon plays Ariz right before and Oreg St. after we play scUM. Aub/ALA is the friday before. Boise/Nevada is the Friday before. Ok ST/Okla is the same sat. LSU/Ark is the same sat. NW/Wisc is the same sat. PSU/MSU... you get it. Then the CGs. We could get tons of help late. We just need to keep chipping away for now and then go hard those last 2 weeks.

 

[osucollegebuck]

That is the reason that I still feel that winning out and getting a few games to fall our way could put us in. The comps will absolutely kill Boise and possibly TCU/UTAH at the end of the year. If we can end our games in the top 5 of the BCS we can sneak in. (Still the CGs and a couple of games in early december that could help). Oregon plays Ariz right before and Oreg St. after we play scUM. Aub/ALA is the friday before. Boise/Nevada is the Friday before. Ok ST/Okla is the same sat. LSU/Ark is the same sat. NW/Wisc is the same sat. PSU/MSU... you get it. Then the CGs. We could get tons of help late. We just need to keep chipping away for now and then go hard those last 2 weeks.

I love your heart but I think the last 2 weeks shows how much the BCS hates the Buckeyes. I think its almost a mathematical impossibility for us to get into that game. Maybe we'd have a better chance if PSU and MICH would be seen as quality wins, but really its just Iowa and some mediocre teams left on the schedule. I hope I'm wrong though. Although I would love another Fiesta or Rose trip.

 

[Mike80]

So you are upset we didn't move up a spot. We threw our option to debate where we are ranked out in Madison. Personally the only team I don't understand "jumping" us is LSU. They didn't play and gained alot. We played to crappy teams and didn't move. Oh well. We will move by beating the last 3.

Where do you believe we should be?

I'm not upset at all. I'm not even remotely surprised.

And I couldn't care less where Ohio State is ranked at the moment. The task ahead of them is clear. Everything else is just noise...

 

[NateG]

I did a quick comparison on the comp ranks for the top 20. I added avg victory total of teams beat(quality of wins), how many losses, and who beat them. There were only a couple of gripes according to what I saw.


1-Auburn- 4.88 (undefeated)
2-Oregon- 3 (undefeated)
3-TCU- 3.55 (undefeated)
4-Mizz- 5 (1 loss(Neb-6)
5-Boise- 3.42 (undefeated)
6-Neb- 4.8 (1 loss(Tex-NR)
6-LSU- 4.14 (1 loss(Aub-1)
8-Okla- 4 (1 loss(Mizz-4)
9-Utah- 3.375 (undefeated)
10-MSU- 4.25(1 loss(Iowa-17)
11-Wisc- 3.28(1 loss(MSU-10)
12-Stan- 3.14(1 loss(Oreg-2)
13-Ariz- 3.57(1 loss(Oreg St-NR)
13-Ok St- 3.71(1 loss(Neb-6)
15-Bama- 3.42(1 loss(SCar-NR)
16-Ohio St- 3.5(1 loss(Wisc-11)
17-Iowa- 4.33(2 loss(Ariz-13,Wisc-11)
18-Miss St- 3.71(2 loss(Aub-1,LSU-6)
19-Ark- 3.66(2 loss(ALA-15,Aub-1)
20-Bay- 3.14(2 loss(TCU-3,TTU-NR)

Oregon is getting a bit too much love even though they have won big. The quality of team they are playing is worse than anyone in the top 20. They could be considered the worst undefeated left. OSU should be higher than Ariz and Ala per quality of loss and that their scheds have similar caliber of teams. An argument could be put on Neb being lower due to the loss being to a NR team but their quality of victories is the 2nd of the 1 loss teams and they beat the top team in that regard. Everything else seems to match up. Undefeateds in order by quality of opp victories. 1 loss teams by the same + quality of loss. Then the 2 loss teams by the quality of opp victories. Seems pretty fair looking at it that way.

 

[MaliBuckeye]

Oregon is getting a bit too much love even though they have won big. The quality of team they are playing is worse than anyone in the top 20. They could be considered the worst undefeated left.

Moreso than Southern Idaho State and TCU?

 

[NateG]

Moreso than Southern Idaho State and TCU?

A. I know you are joking but,

B. I don't know about Southern Idaho St.

C. TCU has a higher victories per opponents defeated(quality of wins) than Oregon.

 

[cjmik_75]

I did a quick comparison on the comp ranks for the top 20. I added avg victory total of teams beat(quality of wins), how many losses, and who beat them. There were only a couple of gripes according to what I saw.


1-Auburn- 4.88 (undefeated)
2-Oregon- 3 (undefeated)
3-TCU- 3.55 (undefeated)
4-Mizz- 5 (1 loss(Neb-6)
5-Boise- 3.42 (undefeated)
6-Neb- 4.8 (1 loss(Tex-NR)
6-LSU- 4.14 (1 loss(Aub-1)
8-Okla- 4 (1 loss(Mizz-4)
9-Utah- 3.375 (undefeated)
10-MSU- 4.25(1 loss(Iowa-17)
11-Wisc- 3.28(1 loss(MSU-10)
12-Stan- 3.14(1 loss(Oreg-2)
13-Ariz- 3.57(1 loss(Oreg St-NR)
13-Ok St- 3.71(1 loss(Neb-6)
15-Bama- 3.42(1 loss(SCar-NR)
16-Ohio St- 3.5(1 loss(Wisc-11)
17-Iowa- 4.33(2 loss(Ariz-13,Wisc-11)
18-Miss St- 3.71(2 loss(Aub-1,LSU-6)
19-Ark- 3.66(2 loss(ALA-15,Aub-1)
20-Bay- 3.14(2 loss(TCU-3,TTU-NR)

Oregon is getting a bit too much love even though they have won big. The quality of team they are playing is worse than anyone in the top 20. They could be considered the worst undefeated left. OSU should be higher than Ariz and Ala per quality of loss and that their scheds have similar caliber of teams. An argument could be put on Neb being lower due to the loss being to a NR team but their quality of victories is the 2nd of the 1 loss teams and they beat the top team in that regard. Everything else seems to match up. Undefeateds in order by quality of opp victories. 1 loss teams by the same + quality of loss. Then the 2 loss teams by the quality of opp victories. Seems pretty fair looking at it that way.

I like this alot. I'll try and figure out how to apply it to what I've done. I've done some numbers on the three polls (I know that the AP poll is not used in the BCS) Coaches poll, AP poll and Harris poll but only for the last four weeks.

Basically, each team is given votes (or points) and their totals determine rankings. I really just wanted to take a look at which teams have benefitted the most from the human polls over the last 4 weeks and put some sort of number to it. (harris poll didn't come out until week 7) It's interesting although not too surprising. Maybe some other number gurus can put a better formula together to make a bit more sense out of it because as you'll see it's very simplistic in nature.


First, I added together the point totals from the 3 polls for each team during weeks 7, 8, 9 and 10 and divided it by the same number of weeks to get an average poll position.

Oregon.....5692.25
Boise St.....5425.75
TCU.....5115
Auburn.....4999
Alabama.....4427.5
Oklahoma.....4277.75
Ohio St.....4273.25
Utah.....4087.5
LSU.....3755
MSU.....3618.25
Nebraska.....3595.75
Wisconsin.....3375
Stanford......3107.75
Mizzou.....2741.5
Iowa.....2526.25
Arizona.....2272
South Car.....2068.75
Okie St.....1873.5

Second, is the average point differential from week to week.

ie: Ohio State starts week 7 with 5701 before losing to Wisconsin and in week 8 they have 3592 for a (-2109) difference week nine they gain (+163) points and week 10 gain (+290) for a total (-1656) and average (-552). Unfortuantely for the Buckeyes, they were severly punished for losing to Wiscy and haven't gained much favor by beating the daylights out of Purdue and Minnesota.

Wisconsin.....777.6667
Arizona.....435
Mizzou.....400
Auburn.....398
Stanford.....294
Utah.....266.6667
Alabama.....235.6667
TCU.....81.66667
Oregon.....79
Okie St.....53
Boise St.....22.66667
Iowa.....14.33333
LSU.....-174.667
MSU.....-220
Oklahoma.....-295
Nebraska.....-381
South Car.....-504
Ohio St.....-552




Again, I'm not whining I'm just looking at voter trends and the numbers that back them up. That is all.