2009 TSUN News (football only discussion)

[jwinslow]

ESPN Insider says as of this morning "Discontent Simmering in Ann Arbor". I don't have insider and don't know what this means but hmmm, interesting.

College Football Rumors - Rumor Central -NCAA - ESPN

It's referencing this article:
Michigan now a 'Big House' divided | detnews.com | The Detroit News

Last Updated: October 23. 2009 11:07AM
Michigan now a 'Big House' divided

Angelique S. Chengelis / The Detroit News

Ann Arbor -- In-fighting and dissension among the group of "Michigan Men," who helped lead the Wolverines football program to national prominence, never have been part of the equation.

There never was any mud-slinging, no visible dissension, no public airing of laundry.

Not until recently.

It would be extreme to describe the family of "Michigan Men" as deeply fractured or dysfunctional these days, nearly two years since Rich Rodriguez, the first "outsider" since 1969, was hired to lead the Wolverines. But unquestionably, there's a disconnect in the family.

It's been simmering since the search to replace Lloyd Carr, who retired following the 2007 season after 13 years as head coach. There was a large number of Michigan Men who wanted former player and assistant and current LSU coach Les Miles to take over, thereby keeping alive the Bo Schembechler lineage -- "disciples" Gary Moeller and Carr followed Schembechler.

Now, there's a perception those Miles backers never will be happy with Rodriguez.

Carr's reluctance to do interviews since Rodriguez's hire has drawn the ire of some fans -- and former players -- who wonder why he hasn't vocally supported the new coach and his staff. His silence, to some, is baffling.

'We don't need that'

Most former Michigan players, while acknowledging there are some differences of opinion regarding the current program, did not want to talk publicly about what many consider a division in the family.

"Michigan doesn't do that stuff out in the public," said former offensive guard Dick Caldarazzo (1968-69).

Some do, though, and have spoken publicly about the apparent division in support of Rodriguez and the current program.

"There is a divide right now," Andy Mignery, a former quarterback/tight end (2001-03) said last Monday on Ann-Arbor based WTKA radio. "You've got some people on this side of the fence, some people at the other side of the fence. At the end of the day ... they've just got to let it relax in my mind if you're a true blue Michigan man, if you bleed maize and blue, you're going to put your energy into wanting this program to succeed.

"So the people that are bringing different stuff to the whole scene here and trying to smear this or do that in a negative light, screw you. ... We don't need that. We need collectively as a Michigan group, as a Michigan family to collectively want this program, and put that pride and energy and the backing and support to want this program to succeed. If you for a second have any hesitation (for) what I just said, you're not a Michigan man, and you're not a Michigan true blue Wolverine. Period."

Former Michigan quarterback Rick Leach, who did not return a call for an interview request, has become close to Rodriguez since his arrival. He has spoken positively about Rodriguez since the beginning and hasn't been shy about calling the local radio station to back the coach.

In fact, early last week, after Michigan played at Iowa, Leach called WTKA to voice his concern about a newspaper item that indicated Carr was in the press box at Iowa. There were no details about where Carr sat or who invited him, but Leach took exception.

"Who's ticket did he go on, who's private box was he sitting and who's university staff was in the box with him?" Leach said. "As far as I'm concerned, I love our coach (Rodriguez), I love what they're trying to do. Our ex-coach flipped a huge middle finger right in our current coach's face. So ask people to investigate that."
Carr declined a request to be interviewed.

Leach's comments made the rounds and appeared last week in USA Today. The first sentence of the article read: "No school may be more paranoid than Michigan."
A day after Leach's comments, former Michigan tight end Aaron Shea called to defend Carr, saying he was "disturbed about how (Leach) called out Coach Carr."
"There's not a bigger Michigan Man that I know than Lloyd Carr and look who he learned from -- Bo," Shea said on WTKA. "Bo coached Rick Leach, and for him to call (out) Lloyd Carr really, frankly, pisses me off."

 

[BB73]

Lloyd Carr has stated that he's not a candidate to succeed Bill Martin as AD next September.

Probably a smart move on his part, but it would have been very entertaining if he had become RichRod's boss.

AA.com

 

[JimsSweaterVest]

Tater Tots seems to be riding a false stream of confidence from beating a helpless 1-AA team

im thinking State Penn may snap him in half this week

Just wait till Dexter Larrimore and Kurt Coleman mash him into tater salad.

 

[NFBuck]

The outcry for Carr to voice his support is ridiculous. I can't say for certain what his feelings on rr are, but it would appear he's lukewarm towards him at best. Can anybody really blame him? Carr, for all his faults (curmudgeon, surly, etc.) at least went about things without dragging um into a significant scandel for 13 years. DickRod already has done it multiple times. Would they prefer Carr betray his true feelings on the subject and give an insincere vocal backing?

As for Leach, his whole ra-ra schtick smacks of desperation. From reading their boards, it's clear that those close to the program and with knowledge of Mr. Leach's history would prefer he keep his nose out of it. To the common fan, he has managed to make himself out as some kind of hero. It's pretty pathetic when you get the backstory on the douchebag.

 

[muffler dragon]

A number of people (out here in Oregon) think that this cat will be the next AD at Michigan:

Player Bio: Bob De Carolis - OREGON STATE OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

Director of Athletics Bob De Carolis was appointed to his current position on Aug. 28, 2002 by then OSU President Dr. Paul Risser and has since led the Beavers to unprecedented success on and off the fields of play. The popular De Carolis signed a five-year contract extension in May of 2006 that takes him through June 30, 2011. De Carolis originally joined the OSU staff on April 20, 1998 as associate athletic director of internal operations; he was promoted to senior associate athletic director on July 1, 1999. Prior to coming to Oregon State, he spent 19 years on the athletic department staff at the University of Michigan.

cont.

I would say that Bob has done a helluva job at toOSU. Be a loss for him to go.

 

[mbama1]

Warning: LONG post.

This was a topic we discussed before, and I know you guys like to say that Rich can't produce NFL talent, but what do some of you guys think about this post that I found on a Michigan board?

First, this post is based off the premise that not all star rankings are created equally. Some will tell you that there is an undeniable correlation between star rankings and on-field success. The more intelligent of those that support this position will say that it's not so much that having 4* and 5* recruits guarantees you a shot at the BCS title; but that not having them guarantees you no shot. I happen to agree with the latter part of this post.

That said, I think what is constantly and critically underrated is how adept RR has proven himself to be at finding and developing talent with lower star rankings into players that not only produce an winning product on the field, but actually get drafted as well. The level he has historically done this is not comensurate with his peers, and needs to be looked at individually.

The Rivals database goes back to 2002, so first let's take at Michigan and see how many players UM has had from the 2002 recruiting class until now that have been drafted.

Michigan draft picks under LC, recruiting classes 2002-2005:

YEAR RD PICK# PLAYER STARS POS NFL TEAM

2009 4 136 Terrance Taylor (****) DT Indianapolis Colts

2009 6 179 Morgan Trent (****) DB Cincinnati Bengals

2008 1 1 Jake Long (****) OT Miami Dolphins

2008 2 57 Chad Henne (*****) QB Miami Dolphins

2008 3 78 Shawn Crable (****) OLB New England Patriots

2008 3 95 Mario Manningham (****) WR New York Giants

2008 6 202 Mike Hart (***) RB Indianapolis Colts

2008 7 237 Adrian Arrington (****)WR New Orleans Saints

2007 1 18 Leon Hall (****) CB Cincinnati Bengals

2007 2 33 Alan Branch (****) DT Arizona Cardinals

2007 2 46 LaMarr Woodley (*****) LB Pittsburgh Steelers

2007 2 47 David Harris (***) ILB New York Jets

2007 5 142 Steve Breaston (****) WR Arizona Cardinals

2007 6 207 Prescott Burgess (*****) LB Baltimore Ravens

2007 7 216 Tyler Ecker (****) TE Washington Redskins

2006 4 107 Gabe Watson (*****) DT Arizona Cardinals

2006 4 109 Jason Avant (****) WR Philadelphia Eagles

In this time UM signed 42 4* and five 5* recruits. Thus for 47 4*-plus players signed, UM had 17 total NFL draftees. That?s a 4*/draft quotient (for lack of a better term) of 36%. In the span that these players played (2003-2007*) UM went 46-12 and was either B10 champion or co-champion twice. During that time UM was 2-0 against the SEC, 0-2 against the B12, 0-0 against the ACC, 0-4 against the PAC10 and won 0 BCS bowl games.

*I removed 2008 from the equation due to regime change and that fact that the 2008 UM season of 3-9 would make UM look "worse" and WVU "better." If we include 2008 (because some will posit that "players play," then the numbers are even higher in favor of the kids that RR recruited. Removing the 2008 season actually weakens my point, but I felt it was essential for statistical integrity.

Now, let's look at WVU in that same span.

WVU draft picks under RR, recruiting classes 2002-2005:

YEAR RD PICK# PLAYER STARS POS NFL TEAM

2009 2 44 Pat White (***) QB Miami Dolphins

2009 7 220 Pat McAfee (**) P Indianapolis Colts

2009 7 222 Ellis Lankster (JC****) DB Buffalo Bills

2008 3 89 Steve Slaton (***) RB Houston Texans

2008 5 163 Owen Schmitt (WO) FB Seattle Seahawks

2008 6 194 Ryan Mundy (****) FS Pittsburgh Steelers

2006 6 179 Dee McCann (***) CB Detroit Lions

2005 1 6 Adam Jones (**) CB Tennessee Titans

2005 3 83 Chris Henry (**) WR Cincinnati Bengals

In this time (from 2002-2005, WVU signed exactly four 4* (as well as one 4* JUCO) and one 5* recruit. Thus, for six total 4*-plus players signed, WVU had nine NFL draftees. That?s a 4*/draft quotient of 150%. In the span that these players played (2003-2007) WVU went 49-14 and was Big East champion or co-champion four times. During that time WVU was 3-0 against the SEC, 1-0 against the B12, 7-7 against the ACC, 0-0 against the PAC10 and won two BCS bowl games.

If WVU had one very good year this could be consisted a statistical abberation, but RR had three teams with eleven wins during that span. So we can see that while, if one looks at college footbal at a whole, it is very true that 4* and 5* guys are necessary for success, if one looks specifically at RR and WVU, that is not the case.

We can deduce two things from these numbers. First, that RRs combination of ?eye for talent? and ?player development? are significantly better than LCs were. On the magnitude of 4.5 TIMES better, if we go by 4*/draft quotient. Second, considering WVU racked up a record almost identical to UM over the same span (2-0 in BCS games but they never played USC) with a program built almost entirely on 2* and 3* players, his record for producing a winner on the field vis-a-vis the star rankings of his players is also significantly higher.

Under LCs regime, 3* players that performed at a high level were the exception to the rule; hence the H-E-H ?Holy Trilogy of Three Stars? that some jokingly bring up, in regards to Hart, Edwards and Harrison. The fact of the matter is that under RR at WVU, 3* players producing a championship caliber team was the rule, not the exception. Thus, every ?statistical analysis? you see that looks at college football as a whole and doesn?t look specifically at WVU in that timeframe is invalid.

Next, on to my aforementioned point that I agreed that not having 4* and 5*kids guarantees you no shot at MNC contention.

In RRs first recruiting class of 2008, he secured 17 4* commitments, 14 of whom are still on the team. In the 2009 recruiting class, he secured 14 4* or better commits. There are 28 4* or better players on the roster that have signed since RR came on board, which is 18 more than RR signed in his first five years at WVU combined.

Common sense tells us that even though RR is now pulling 4* players, it would make no sense whatsoever that his combination of scouting and development would be any worse. So, given that RR has documented he can sign guru 4* kids, it begs the question: ?Well, why on earth is he signing 3* kids?? The answer is very simple: he thinks he can win with them.

Considering the man?s track record, I believe him. Coming off a 3-9 season, a regime change and the second brand-new defense in two years, it?s understandable that we are going to whiff on some good kids. We aren?t USC or Florida. We?re going to have top show it on the field before a lot of the top kids even consider us. But in the meantime I firmly believe that all the evidence points to the fact that RR is constructing a program that will be competitive in the B10 and on the national scene within two years.

I think that guy pretty much nailed it.^^^

 

[NFBuck]

Warning: LONG post.

This was a topic we discussed before, and I know you guys like to say that Rich can't produce NFL talent, but what do some of you guys think about this post that I found on a Michigan board?




I think that guy pretty much nailed it.^^^

Well, to beat a long dead horse, I remain less than impressed by his accomplishments because his greatest success coincided with a weakened Big East after their two main powers (Miami/VT) left the conference. As for producing NFL talent, again, recruiting stars are a very subjective thing. With the offensive system he runs, it's easy to plug 3* guys in and have success. It leans heavily on athleticism as opposed to the pure "football" skills that NFL teams look for. Also, succeeding with lower rated guys on defense is easier in the Big East than what he'll regularly face on um's slate.

The argument of why he's missing out on top tier defensive talent may be valid, but I can't buy it blindly. M*ch*g*n is a name school and too many other coaches have stepped into similar situations and had much less trouble landing those types of kids. I have a hard time not believing wvu fan's statements that he focuses heavily on offensive recruiting.

 

[Ttown]

Lloyd Carr has stated that he's not a candidate to succeed Bill Martin as AD next September.

Probably a smart move on his part, but it would have been very entertaining if he had become RichRod's boss.

AA.com

We should be so lucky for Carr to be the next AD. :tongue2:

 

[jwinslow]

Obviously Rich is going to produce some NFL talent. Between having a high-scoring offense for skill players (we'll set aside whether it translates well), and the built-in trump card in attaching the UM brand to your offers, he'll produce players.

This is why we think there will be a dropoff

WVU Draft History

Quick question: How many WVU O-lineman made it to the NFL under Rodriguez?

Scout shows zero OL alumni on roster for WVU.
All-American, Rimington award winner, went undrafted. Six other centers were drafted.

Dan Mozes is the only guy I can think of, and he isn't even in the league anymore.

Well that was the case moving from Nehlen to RRod... see the link atop this post.

I hope UM fans get used to a football program that produces about half the NFL talent it used too...

01-07 - RichRod - 7 draft picks, 1 first rnd, 2 first day. Biggest names: Pacman Jones, Chris Henry
80-00 - Nehlen - 57 draft picks, 4 first rnd, 21 first day. Biggest names: Marc Bulger, Jerry Porter, Jeff Hostetler

Nehlen produced 2.7 more draft picks per year.

The above link does not list 2007, but WVU had no one drafted last year.

Note, since this set of data, RR had 3 drafted in 08. 1 2nd and 2 late rounders. (This was the formula in 09 after RR went to UM, though I think the bigger passing focus after RR helped Pat improve his stock).

In Nehlen's final two years, he produced SEVEN first day picks, including 5 2nd & 1 1st round picks.

 

[billmac91]

Warning: LONG post.

This was a topic we discussed before, and I know you guys like to say that Rich can't produce NFL talent, but what do some of you guys think about this post that I found on a Michigan board?




I think that guy pretty much nailed it.^^^

eh. Still not buying. Outside of Steve Slaton, at RB, who has really stuck out in the NFL? My entire argument is that, while he could get decent talent to WVU (understandly lots of 3* recruits), his system would do a majority of the work. Pat White was a great college QB and amazing runner, and Steve Slaton was a great RB. They made the system for damn near 3 of his years.

You'll be able to recruit those 2 positions (Devin Gardner) proving that, but outside of slot dots, I'm just not impressed with the rest of the offenses recruiting. And I don't think the development in that system will lead to a massive amount of NFL draft picks. I'm sure it will increase based on athleticism and upside of the kids he gets at Michigan, but its never going to rival a USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State where they can legitamtely tell them...come here, we'll develop you into a pro.

As a sidenote, I wish Tressel would take a few pages out of the Rodriguez playbook for Proyor but isn't likely to happen. But again, Pryor is the classic scenario in my argument...chose tOSU over UM in hopes of future development at the QB position. Rodriguez's system isn't conducive to a single unit on the offesnive side of the ball for NFL development with exception to maybe the RB's...and even they are in shotgun and aren't used to running out of pro-style sets....that was the knock on Slaton coming out of WVU.

 

[mbama1]

The argument of why he's missing out on top tier defensive talent may be valid, but I can't buy it blindly. M*ch*g*n is a name school and too many other coaches have stepped into similar situations and had much less trouble landing those types of kids. I have a hard time not believing wvu fan's statements that he focuses heavily on offensive recruiting.

Well he walked in and landed these 4*'s or better on defense...

2008
Boubacar Cissoko, CB, 4*
JB Fitzgerald, LB, 4*
Brandon Smith, S/LB, 4*
Mike Martin, DT, 4*
Kenny Demens, LB, 4*
Taylor Hill, LB, 4* (transfered)
Marcus Witherspoon, LB, 4* (failed to qualify)

2009
Will Campbell, DT, 5*
Justin Turner, CB, 4*
Craig Roh, DE/LB, 4*
Anthony LaLota, 4*
Vlad Emilien, S, 4*
Cam Gordon, WR/LB, 4* (he'll move to LB'er by next year)

He also had DeQuinta Jones and Pearlie Graves committed right up until NSD when they pulled a switch-a-roo on Rich.

I think the main reason why he's finding it hard to recruit in the 2010 class is simple: 3-9 record and lots of negativity out there from ESPiN and the local Detroit media about potential NCAA violations.

If Rich gets 8+ wins this year and a bowl game victory and that negativity goes away and this "NCAA scandal" blows over I think he'll put together a very good 2011 class.

 

[buckeyesin07]

Well he walked in and landed these 4*'s or better on defense...

2008
Boubacar Cissoko, CB, 4*
JB Fitzgerald, LB, 4*
Brandon Smith, S/LB, 4*
Mike Martin, DT, 4*
Kenny Demens, LB, 4*
Taylor Hill, LB, 4* (transfered)
Marcus Witherspoon, LB, 4* (failed to qualify)

2009
Will Campbell, DT, 5*
Justin Turner, CB, 4*
Craig Roh, DE/LB, 4*
Anthony LaLota, 4*
Vlad Emilien, S, 4*
Cam Gordon, WR/LB, 4* (he'll move to LB'er by next year)

Please don't tell me that you're another UM fan who thinks that RR "landed" Campbell, Turner, etc.

 

[buckeyesin07]

True frosh walk-on. I have been very impressed with Kovacs for what he is. Despite his obvious limitations and lack of natural ability, he's been surprisingly solid. I wish more guys on the defense had this kids attitude and determination. Guys like Mouton, Williams, Cissoko, and Ezeh.

Still doesn't change the fact that he's a liability back there. And there's no excuse for a program of UM's stature to have a player like him (true fros walk on with "obvious limitations," as you say) starting. Something isn't right.

 

[NFBuck]

Well he walked in and landed these 4*'s or better on defense...

2008
Boubacar Cissoko, CB, 4*
JB Fitzgerald, LB, 4*
Brandon Smith, S/LB, 4*
Mike Martin, DT, 4*
Kenny Demens, LB, 4*
Taylor Hill, LB, 4* (transfered)
Marcus Witherspoon, LB, 4* (failed to qualify)

Cissoko was more Carr than rr, though he does deserve some credit for keeping him on board...though given what he's shown thus far, not so sure how great that is. Martin looks like a good one and I think Fitz has potential (if he ever utilizes him). Smith may be a player. Demens doesn't look like more than roster filler and Hill transferred before ever suiting up...don't see how you can count him at all.

2009
Will Campbell, DT, 5*
Justin Turner, CB, 4*
Craig Roh, DE/LB, 4*
Anthony LaLota, 4*
Vlad Emilien, S, 4*
Cam Gordon, WR/LB, 4* (he'll move to LB'er by next year)

He also had DeQuinta Jones and Pearlie Graves committed right up until NSD when they pulled a switch-a-roo on Rich.

Cambell is in the same boat as Cissoko. Turner was a nice get as was Roh and Emilien. LaLota looks like a major project and Gordon as well. Again, Jones and Graves never even signed papers, not sure where they fit in this argument.

I think the main reason why he's finding it hard to recruit in the 2010 class is simple: 3-9 record and lots of negativity out there from ESPiN and the local Detroit media about potential NCAA violations.

If Rich gets 8+ wins this year and a bowl game victory and that negativity goes away and this "NCAA scandal" blows over I think he'll put together a very good 2011 class.

It can't help, but other coaches have had bad first years, maybe not as bad, but bad none-the-less and were immediately cleaning up. We may be completely wrong, but looking at his track record, I have a hard time seeing him ever putting together a championship caliber defense at um.

 

[jwinslow]

Well he walked in and landed these 4*'s or better on defense...

Martin, Cissoko, Fitzgerald, Demens, Witherspoon were not his recruits. The only one that could maybe be attributed to RR is Martin, who was worried that RR would run a 3 man DL.

I think the main reason why he's finding it hard to recruit in the 2010 class is simple: 3-9 record and lots of negativity out there from ESPiN and the local Detroit media about potential NCAA violations.

Or because he is not known as a defensive coach, does not have his defensive coordinator do any recruiting, and tends to recruit a lot of athletes on defense and sort it out later.

His 3-man front was also a deterrent in recruiting.