2007 TSUN News

[3074326]

To put what brutus2002 said in a different way:

It's tough to say that he'll have the same rate of success (or lack, whatever you want to call it) when the best conference he coached in was the big east.

I know what he's saying, I'm just looking at it from this angle:

It's hard to have the same (mediocre) success when you're coaching at Michigan. I'm not saying he's going to be winning national championships. I'm saying that I'd be surprised if he was 8-4/7-5 every year.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

I know what he's saying, I'm just looking at it from this angle:

It's hard to have the same (mediocre) success when you're coaching at Michigan. I'm not saying he's going to be winning national championships. I'm saying that I'd be surprised if he was 8-4/7-5 every year.

So it's hard to be mediocre every year at Michigan.

OK

But Earle Bruce went 9-3 six years in a row at Ohio State.

Is it easier to be mediocre at Ohio State?

 

[NFBuck]

It's hard to have the same (mediocre) success when you're coaching at Michigan.

Lllllloyd Carr was spectacular at it.

 

[3074326]

So it's hard to be mediocre every year at Michigan.

OK

But Earle Bruce went 9-3 six years in a row at Ohio State.

Is it easier to be mediocre at Ohio State?

Does it look like that's what I'm saying? Not at all. So please don't even try to put those words in my mouth.

I'm saying that I think he'll have more success at Michigan than he's had at his previous coaching jobs. He hasn't had a ridiculous amount of success, so that's not saying too much. Michigan is one of the top two Big 10 schools, and I don't see them falling. What is so crazy about me saying that? I hate Rodriguez. I despise the guy. I just don't think he's going to do a terrible job. I think he'll be successful for his standards, but not successful in terms of winning championships and big bowl games. Does that mean Michigan is any less of a power in the Big 10? No, it doesn't, because that would not be much of a change since Tressel took over at Ohio State.

I didn't realize I was throwing out some off-the-wall argument.

Basically, I should've said this at first - I expect Michigan to have a down year, then be the Michigan we're used to seeing. Which would be successful for Rodriguez.

 

[HINYG8]

Basically, I should've said this at first - I expect Michigan to have a down year, then be the Michigan we're used to seeing. Which would be successful for Rodriguez.

I don't think I have misinterpreted your point..but I still do disagree a bit. Can RR be successful at UM? Of course...but I hardly think it is a lock.

I truly believe UM is on a bit of a slippery slope right now..things are far from horrible in AA at the moment..but I don't think the Wolvs are insulated from a slide ala USC before Pete and ND before...well....still.

I think RR brings the program to a crossroads and while I don't expect them to slide into oblivion, I am also not convinced they slide into a national power. I think there is a VERY good chance RR ends up with a lot of 3-5 loss seasons. Plenty good for WVU, plenty good for RR...but not what UM fans want/expect.

Bottom line for me: He could DOMINATE...he could SUCK..I expect something in between to be more likely. I think UM fans are *beginning* to fear that to be the case as well....based on the tones I see and hear from the UM fans I know and read on the message boards.

If UM is going to march forward I think RR's role in that will be very much like Earle Bruce's: stabalize, then start redefining what the future of the program will be. Can he survive that transition if they string together 3 or 4 tough years? Perhaps, but I doubt it.

 

[HailToMichigan]

To put what brutus2002 said in a different way:

It's tough to say that he'll have the same rate of success (or lack, whatever you want to call it) when the best conference he coached in was the big east.

Of course, RR was more successful in a D-IA BCS conference than he was in D-II. He seemed to handle that jump pretty well. Why not this one?

Also, some spin. Or as I prefer to call it, a little bit of a different way of looking at it. Out-of-the-box thinking, whatever. At WVU, clearly his team was not the top dog in the conference while the future ACC schools were still there. In Big East recruiting battles, a kid could choose between going to sunny Miami, beautiful Boston.....or Morgantown. He wasn't positioned well to win most of these battles. Now, the competition is better, for sure. But now he's got the resources to win the recruiting battles against that competition.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Of course, RR was more successful in a D-IA BCS conference than he was in D-II. He seemed to handle that jump pretty well.

Not until the Big Three of the Big Least bailed...

 

[HailToMichigan]

Not until the Big Three of the Big Least bailed...

And from 2001 to 2004, he still did better against the Big East than he did against D-II. (VT and Miami made the jump in summer '04 - BC in summer '05.)

Which, though informative, isn't relevant to the point at all. The worst teams in the Big East would obviously blow the doors off of anyone in D-II. But RR did better against them than the WVIAC. Better competition - yet better results.

Am I claiming there's a pattern? No. (But I hope there is.) But it's clear to me, the point about different competition doesn't hold up.

 

[jwinslow]

Scout $

UM has offered another WR, Bryan Underwood.

Where's the beef, RR? Campbell (who RR didn't land) and ...? That patchwork OL at WVU isn't going to cut it up here.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

And from 2001 to 2004, he still did better against the Big East than he did against D-II. (VT and Miami made the jump in summer '04 - BC in summer '05.)

Which, though informative, isn't relevant to the point at all. The worst teams in the Big East would obviously blow the doors off of anyone in D-II. But RR did better against them than the WVIAC. Better competition - yet better results.

Am I claiming there's a pattern? No. (But I hope there is.) But it's clear to me, the point about different competition doesn't hold up.

it may not hold up....but you haven't really explained why that will be the case. you just made a random observation with no connection at all.

it's a much easier pattern to see that dick didn't do well in the big east until after the good teams left it....until the good teams were off the schedule.

spin averted.

 

[NFBuck]

Okay, here's DR's season by season performance in notable games...
2001
at BC LOST 10-34
at Maryland LOST 20-32
VA Tech LOST 0-35
at ND LOST 24-34
at Miami (FL) LOST 3-45
Pitt LOST 17-23

2002
at Wiscy LOST 17-34
Maryland LOST 17-48
Miami (FL) LOST 23-40
BC WON 24-14
at VA Tech WON 21-18
at Pitt WON 24-17
Virginia LOST 22-48

2003
Wiscy LOST 17-24
at Maryland LOST 7-34
at Miami (FL) LOST 20-22
VA Tech WON 28-7
at BC WON 35-28
Pitt WON 52-31
Maryland (bowl) LOST 7-41

2004
Maryland WON 19-16
at VA Tech LOST 13-19
BC LOST 17-36
Pitt LOST 13-16
Fla State LOST 18-30

2005
at Maryland WON 31-19
VA Tech LOST 17-34
Louisville WON 46-44
Pitt WON 45-13
Georgia WON 38-35

2006
Maryland WON 45-24
at Louisville LOST 34-44
S Fla LOST 19-24
Rutgers WON 41-39
Pitt WON 45-27
Ga Tech WON 38-35

2007
Maryland WON 31-14
at S Fla LOST 13-21
Rutgers WON 31-3
Louisville WON 38-31
Pitt LOST 9-13

So there ya have it. Those were his most important games from each season at wvu. He was 4-4 against Maryland (a sorta rival), but struggled against them when they fielded decent teams a few years ago. Against the ACC defectors, he went 4-8: 2-2 (BC), 2-3 (VT) and 0-3 (MIA). South Florida has handled him since they've become competitive (0-2). He was 1-1 against strong L-Ville teams and barely beat a very bad L-ville in 2007. He beat a pretty good Rutgers team in 2006 and a mediocre one in 2007. Against his chief rival, Pitt, he was an underwhelming 4-3 including the absolute embarrassment last year. Then went 2-3 in Bowl games with the only really impressive win being over Georgia. That is a less than stellar resume if you ask me.

 

[TheIronColonel]

I'll play Devil's advocate. Under RR, WVU was 2-0 in BCS games beating both Georgia and Oklahoma (no, Oklahoma doesn't count for Stewart, it was RR's team). He won 4 Big East conference titles in 7 years at WVU. He posted a 3-0 record against the SEC, 1-0 against the Big XII, and an overall winning percentage of .66 against BCS teams with, for the most part, second tier talent (Rivals average of 2.54 stars from 2002 to 2007 inclusive, only 6 players drafted during his tenure - 1 player undrafted and playing in the NFL). He had exactly 1 5-star (per Rivals) recruit during his entire tenure at WVU, and that was Noel Devine. RR doesn't have the stellar record of a guy like Tressel or Carrol...or even Stoops...or Meyer...or Miles...or Richt...but his record isn't as bad as everyone would like to believe.

That being said, I think he may have issues with the transition. His system will eventually work, but it's going to be a culture shock. Michigan is the Republican Party of college football: they fear change and do everything the same way they did it in the 50's. He new-fangled-old-timey-modified Wing-T Triple-Option bastard child offense may raise too many eyebrows for his own good.

 

[NFBuck]

I'll play Devil's advocate. Under RR, WVU was 2-0 in BCS games beating both Georgia and Oklahoma (no, Oklahoma doesn't count for Stewart, it was RR's team). He won 4 Big East conference titles in 7 years at WVU. He posted a 3-0 record against the SEC, 1-0 against the Big XII, and an overall winning percentage of .66 against BCS teams with, for the most part, second tier talent (Rivals average of 2.54 stars from 2002 to 2007 inclusive, only 6 players drafted during his tenure - 1 player undrafted and playing in the NFL). He had exactly 1 5-star (per Rivals) recruit during his entire tenure at WVU, and that was Noel Devine. RR doesn't have the stellar record of a guy like Tressel or Carrol...or even Stoops...or Meyer...or Miles...or Richt...but his record isn't as bad as everyone would like to believe.

That being said, I think he may have issues with the transition. His system will eventually work, but it's going to be a culture shock. Michigan is the Republican Party of college football: they fear change and do everything the same way they did it in the 50's. He new-fangled-old-timey-modified Wing-T Triple-Option bastard child offense may raise too many eyebrows for his own good.

I undertand the need for a "Devil's Advocate" point of view, but I completely disagree with the bolded statement. That was a team fired up after their coach bailed on them. DickRod deserves no personal credit for that. The last game he coached there was a monumental choke job and that team rallied under Stewart. Plus, OU's bowl record under Bobbie Stoops is less than great. Also, three of those conference titles were after the best teams left the conference.

 

[Oh8ch]

Damn NFB, I am watching Andromeda Strain while going through Stassen chasing almost the precise same issue.

I was looking at games against teams with 4 or less losses - i.e. high caliber teams most of which would logically be from the same conference.

In the past 5 years WVU was 8-11. Of those 8 wins four were by five points or less. Of their four wins by more than 5 points two were against UConn. In other words, in the past five years RR has beaten two quality teams by more than 5 points who were not UConn (which is not a quality team under any meaningful definition). Oh, and one of those two games was the OU game coached by Stewart. I agree that RR gets credit for the team that won that game - but I wont give him credit for the margin. That would leave his lone convincing win over a quality opponent a 21 point whipping of 9-4 Maryland.

To be honest, when I went looking I expected to prove the opposite point.

By way of comparison OSU has played 21 such games in the same period going 13-8. Eleven of those wins were by more than 5 points. Two of their 8 losses were in NC games.

And UM has 12 such wins (in 25 games), 9 by 5 or more.

 

[NFBuck]

Damn NFB, I am watching Andromeda Strain while going through Stassen chasing almost the precise same issue.

I was looking at games against teams with 4 or less losses - i.e. high caliber teams most of which would logically be from the same conference.

In the past 5 years WVU was 8-11. Of those 8 wins four were by five points or less. Of their four wins by more than 5 points two were against UConn. In other words, in the past five years RR has beaten two quality teams by more than 5 points who were not UConn (which is not a quality team under any meaningful definition). Oh, and one of those two games was the OU game coached by Stewart. I agree that RR gets credit for the team that won that game - but I wont give him credit for the margin.

To be honest, when I went looking I expected to prove the opposite point.

By way of comparison OSU has played 21 such games in the same period going 13-8. Eleven of those wins were by more than 5 points. Two of their 8 losses were in NC games.

And UM has 12 such wins (in 25 games), 9 by 5 or more.

Yep, the facts are all there, sometimes it just takes a little digging. Even during wvu's rise to a national power since 2005, they've had a hard time with the better teams on their schedule. The Big-10 may be viewed as the Big-2, but there are still a handful of competitive teams every year...the exact same types of teams that gave DR fits at wvu.

I don't necessarily think he's going to outright fail at scUM. Hell, I think he'll put some nice seasons together there, but any fans deluding themselves into thinking that they're going to be as consistently good as those 05-07 wvu teams are in for a helluva let down. I've watched a number of wvu games in the past 4-5 years because, bottom line, they're a fun offensive team to watch, but DR is a coach who is easily outsmarted. He's hardly what I'd call a good big-game coach. The stats prove it.