2007 tOSU Defense

[DaddyBigBucks]

Back in 2005 I posted the information 2 ways:

• Based on subtraction (my original method)
• Based on division (my current method)

The info above is what I call the subtraction method. As I developed my spreadsheets, I spent a great deal of time in trying to figure out which method produced better predictions. The answer to that question was complicated, but the short version is that division is very, very slightly better for most situations.

Back to the issue at hand: It is pretty easy for me to change the "divide by" symbol in my spreadsheet to a "minus sign" to check the work above: but I will still come up with different results because of two other decisions I made back in '05:

1. I chose to eliminate competition with I-AA oponents; not just for us, but for everyone.
2. I chose to include defense and special teams scores.

#1 comes from my belief that including these games skews numbers in favor of teams who play lower division opponents. I made this decision when only a few teams did this, now it seems that almost everyone does. #2 comes from nothing other than my own personal preference. I think scoring, and keeping the other team from scoring, are both full-team efforts. The offense does more to prevent scoring than just avoiding safeties and turnovers. A critical first down here and there in a defensive struggle can mean all the difference. The offense's contribution w.r.t. field-position is never wiped out no matter what you do. IMHO their other contributions shouldn't be wiped out either.


OK - now that all of that stuff that none of you read is out of the way - here are my results. Note that for opponents who did not get non-offensive scores and did not play I-AA (FCS) opponents, the results are the same:

Akron____________-21.67
Washington_______-14.20
Northwestern_____-25.60
Minnesota________-28.00
Purdue___________-32.20
Kent St._________-18.80

 

[MajesticTurkey]

Last year's defense was so opportunistic, and bend-don't-break. I'm sure it's been said many times, but we gave up so much yardage, and was even outgained in a few games there.

I feel a lot more confident with an offense that can get it done and a defense that resembles a brick wall than I do with an offense that can score at any time and a defense that tries to get an interception.

Most of these games remind me of the Akron game. We were down 2-0, but I wasn't concerned at all. In fact, after a couple of picks against Boeckman, I felt better when Akron had the ball than when we did. There's something comforting about knowing that you only have to score a touchdown or two to beat most opponents.

We'll see though, against Sparty, just how good our defense is.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

[quote='BusNative;96274;2]Without stepping on DBB's toes too much, in 2006 the Buckeyes held opponents to 13 points under their offensive scoring average. If you look at only the first 11 games that average was -17.5 points. If tOSU had held Florida and scUM to their scoring average (0 point differential), the season average would have been just under 15 points less per game.

Amazing that the last two games gave 4.5 points back to each team...

Still, 26 points less per game is awesome... Give me your lunch money!!![/quote]

So both methods show that this defense is, differentially speaking, twice as dominant as last year's team.

And don't worry about stepping on my toes. I'm no different than anyone else around here.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

A little sidebar about the defense...I had been thinking about this for a few days but Lamaar Thomas' commit a few minutes ago made me think about our OOS kids again. It seems to me that up until recently--actually, this year--that the vast majority of our starters on defense were from Ohio. But this year, look at all the OOS starters on defense, and note where are our All-American (AA) candidates are from:

LB - Laurinaitis (Minnesota) (AA)
LB - Grant (Georgia)
CB - Jenkins (New Jersey) (AA)
CB - Washington (Indiana)
S - Anderson (Georgia)
DE - Gholston (Michigan) (AA)
DT - Worthington (New York)

Also, Chekwa (Florida) comes in at CB in nickle packages, Larimore (Indiana) has been rotating with Denlinger, Abdullah (Louisiana) rotating with Worthington, Amos (Indiana) backing up Jenkins, Rolle (Florida) and Gant (Michigan) in the two-deep. Unreal.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Damn Tressel - always not closin' on the OOS kids n' shit

 

[daveeb]

Hayward - DT - 07 - GA
Scott - CB - 07 - FL
Rolle - WLB - 07 - FL
Goebel - DT - 08 - IL
Sweat - MLB - 08 - PA

Defensive recruits from other states may be becoming a more common thing.

On that note, in 2002, Tressel recruited 24 players. 5 came from out of state. 1 came from out of country. So, 75% were Ohio-bred.

In 2004, Tressel recruited 26 players. 11 came from out of state. 57.7% were Ohio-bred.

In 2006, Tressel recruited 20 players. 10 came from out of state. 50% Ohio-bred.

So far, in 2008, Tressel has recruited 12 players. 5 have from out of state. 58.3% Ohio-bred.

It is starting to seem like more of a trend for Tressel to go after out-of-state players. The National Championship victory really sent messages all around the nation that tOSU is the place to go.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Now that a defense (USF) that has been called by many (Mandel et. al.) "the best in the country" has given up more points in one game than Ohio State has given up in ANY THREE games, I'm going to repeat a point that I made on the previous page, in case some of you missed it.

Let's go back and retroactively change the rules for OSU this season.

Let's go back and move the goal-line up 20 yards for OSU's opponents.

In other words, let's AWARD OSU OPPONENTS WITH A TD FOR CROSSING OUR 20.

And let them keep the field goals they got in the red-zone this year...
​

OHIO STATE WOULD STILL LEAD THE BIG TEN IN SCORING DEFENSE. (by 1 point)


...and they'd still be undefeated.

​

PSU might be #2 in the Big Ten, defensively. But their defense is grade-A, Government Inspected #2 compared to the Buckeyes. So is everybody this year.

 

[NightmaresDad]

A little sidebar about the defense...I had been thinking about this for a few days but Lamaar Thomas' commit a few minutes ago made me think about our OOS kids again. It seems to me that up until recently--actually, this year--that the vast majority of our starters on defense were from Ohio. But this year, look at all the OOS starters on defense, and note where are our All-American (AA) candidates are from:

LB - Laurinaitis (Minnesota) (AA)
LB - Grant (Georgia)
CB - Jenkins (New Jersey) (AA)
CB - Washington (Indiana)
S - Anderson (Georgia)
DE - Gholston (Michigan) (AA)
DT - Worthington (New York)

Also, Chekwa (Florida) comes in at CB in nickle packages, Larimore (Indiana) has been rotating with Denlinger, Abdullah (Louisiana) rotating with Worthington, Amos (Indiana) backing up Jenkins, Rolle (Florida) and Gant (Michigan) in the two-deep. Unreal.

Great point!
(except Amos is from Middletown)

 

[OSU_Buckguy]

(except Amos is from Middletown)

middletown is ohio's indiana.

of course, michigan is canada's west virginia.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Composite by-quarter scoring so far (updated with MSU game):

......1Q...2Q...3Q...4Q
OSU....7...14....3...14
YSU....0....3....3....0

OSU....0....3...10....7
AKR....2*...0....0....0

OSU....0....3...14...16
WASH...0....7....0....7

OSU...28...17...13....0
NW.....0....0....7*...0

OSU...14....9....3....7
MINN...0....7....0....0

OSU...14....3....3....3
PUR....0....0....0....7

OSU....7...28...10....3
KSU....0....0....0....3

OSU...10....7....7....0
MSU....0....0...14**..3

OSU...80...84...63...50 = 277 (34.625)
OPP....2...17...24...20 =..63 ( 7.875)

* non-offensive scores

• Take away the safety to Akron, kickoff TD to Northwestern, and the two TDs to the MSU defense, and our defense has given up 40 points (4 TDs, 4 FGs) in 8 games, or 5.0 ppg.
• Outscored our opposition 164-19 in the first half
• Defense has not surrender a single point in the first quarter all year
• Defense has not surrendered a single TD at home this year in five games

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Looks like our defense did indeed work on their tackling during last week's practices:

Ringer: 18 carries, 49 yards (2.72 ypc)
Caulcrick: 4 carries, 9 yards (2.25 ypc)

Their two top rushers combined for 58 yards on 22 carries (2.64 ypc). As a team, MSU rushed for 59 yards on 28 carries (2.11 ypc).

Oh yeah, our pass defense was pretty good, too...12-24-1, 126 yards. I'd say holding MSU to 184 yards of total offense is not too shabby.

 

[bucksfan79]

I don't know the specifics of how they figure all the stats, so I'll ask...

For the "Scoring Defense" average, do they figure in points scored directly off turnovers (like the two TDs in the MSU game)?

If so, that sucks. The "defense" has NOTHING to do with those points, being that they're on the sidelines.

 

[Best Buckeye]

It's a team thing not a Defense thing. Defensing the goal line on turnovers is part of defense.

I don't know the specifics of how they figure all the stats, so I'll ask...

For the "Scoring Defense" average, do they figure in points scored directly off turnovers (like the two TDs in the MSU game)?

If so, that sucks. The "defense" has NOTHING to do with those points, being that they're on the sidelines.

 

[bucksfan79]

It's a team thing not a Defense thing. Defensing the goal line on turnovers is part of defense.

I guess that makes sense on the most basic level of always "defending" your goal against the opponents. Still, when I look at a stat titled "Scoring Defense" I automatically tie that number to the defensive unit it is measuring, and I bet a lot of people do the same. Even though our D is still AMAZING according to stats, I just think it's a better indicator of defensive prowess if TDs scored directly off turnovers weren't factored in.

 

[Zurp]

For the "Scoring Defense" average, do they figure in points scored directly off turnovers (like the two TDs in the MSU game)?

It depends on who is doing the calculations. I think that most people would agree, that it's not points scored against the defense - it shouldn't count. However, I think a lot of times people will add up the scores against each team and add them all up. It's easier and faster that way.

It's a team thing not a Defense thing. Defensing the goal line on turnovers is part of defense.

I agree that points are points, regardless of which players were on the field at the time of the score. But when people talk about "points against the defense", you really shouldn't be counting the points against the offense. "Points scored against Ohio State" should count all points scored, while "points scored against Ohio State's defense" should only count the points scored against the defense.

Again, it all depends on who is tabulating or calculating the data.