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Handicapping the Heisman
By
Richard Cirminiello
Collegefootballnews.com
Posted Oct 9, 2006
Through the years, we?ve seen hundreds of players get stonewalled from winning the Heisman because they weren?t surrounded by enough talent. However, when does a program have too much talent to support a Heisman winner?
Witness Cal and Michigan. High-profile, top 10 teams that by all accounts should be a breeding ground for post-season honors, but if a straw poll was taken today, neither would have a candidate headed to New York City. No Chad Henne or Nate Longshore. No Michael Hart or Marshawn Lynch. No Mario Manningham or DeSean Jackson. Why? Well, neither talent nor numbers is the issue. The problem lies in a glut of skill position stars on a single offense that makes it difficult for voters to differentiate one Wolverine or one Bear from another, so they all get cursory looks, but not enough attention to stand out or mount a serious challenge?ideal for each offense, but not so great for the trophy case.
The following ranking is not a personal opinion, rather a handicapping of how the contenders would fare if a vote was taken today.
1.
QB Troy Smith, Ohio State ? If Smith keeps playing the way he did against Bowling Green Saturday, he?s liable to pull away in October and make this a very predictable Heisman race. This past weekend, he had as many touchdown passes as incompletions, three, while picking up 54 yards rushing to remind those who forgot that he can still make plays when he tucks and runs.
Last Week: 17-of-20 for 191 yards and 3 TDs ? 7 carries for 54 yards (Bowling Green)
This Week: at Michigan State
2006 Season: 101-of-148 for 1,261 yards, 15 TDs and 2 INTs
Barometer: Rising
2.
RB Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois ? You know a back is special when 162 yards rushing is considered an ?off? night. Wolfe was hemmed in by Miami, but broke off enough big runs to finish with a respectable stat line that was reminiscent of what Barry Sanders used to do for the Detroit Lions. Talking heads are suggesting Wolfe is getting dogged by a lack of pub. The reality? Absolutely no one is getting more media attention these days than the Huskie pocket rocket.
Last Week: 29 carries for 162 yards and 2 TDs (Miami-OH)
This Week: at Western Michigan
2006 Season: 185 carries for 1,343 yards and 13 TDs ? 13 catches for 162 yards and 1 TD
Barometer: Rising
3.
RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma ? In what was probably his last really big game of 2006, Peterson had a pedestrian effort that has caused him to begin sliding. For some voters, the lasting impression of this year?s Red River Rivalry will be Peterson failing to hustle on a lateral that Longhorn Aaron Ross scooped up for a fourth quarter touchdown that sealed the win for Texas.
Last Week: 25 carries for 109 yards and 1 TD (Texas)
This Week: vs. Iowa State
2006 Season: 142 carries for 752 yards and 8 TDs ? 5 catch for 82 yards and 1 TD
Barometer: Falling
4.
QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame ? Ever since the fourth quarter of the Michigan State game, Quinn?s had his Heisman camper in cruise control. With every touchdown pass he throws and every game the Irish win comfortably, the Sept. 16 debacle against Michigan fades a little more. Quinn?s still got a long way to go, however, don?t underestimate the power of the Irish or the potential impact one monster game at USC might have before votes are cast.
Last Week: 27-of-37 for 232 yards and 3 TDs (Stanford)
This Week: Idle
2006 Season: 148-of-233 for 1,634 yards, 16 TDs and 4 INTs ? 1 rushing TD
Barometer: Steady
5.
RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia ? Slaton burst out of his off week with 185 yards and a touchdown in Starkville, wearing out the Mississippi State defense in the third quarter. With upcoming games versus Syracuse and Connecticut, he?ll have a difficult time realizing much upward mobility until the Mountaineers square off with Louisville in next month?s high-profile ESPN Thursday night offering.
Last Week: 26 carries for 185 yards and 1 TD (Mississippi State)
This Week: vs. Syracuse
2006 Season: 112 carries for 768 yards and 7 TDs
Barometer: Steady
6.
QB Chris Leak, Florida ? Getting upstaged by a true freshman is beginning to really damage Leak?s Heisman street cred?even as the Gators ascend toward the top of both polls. In baseball parlance, Leak has become a table-setter, while Tim Tebow has gradually morphed into Florida?s big run producer. Chicks, and Heisman voters, still dig the long ball.
Last Week: 17-of-26 for 155 yards and 1 INT (LSU)
This Week: at Auburn
2006 Season: 101-of-156 for 1,395 yards, 14 TDs and 5 INTs
Barometer: Falling
7.
WR Ted Ginn, Ohio State ? Needing a big game to remain relevant in this discussion, Ginn delivered a career-best 10 catches and a 57-yard touchdown reception to cap the Buckeyes? scoring against Bowling Green. To get out of neutral, he?ll have to do pop off a few electrifying plays soon, preferably as a punt returner.
Last Week: 10 catches for 122 yards and 1 TD (Bowling Green)
This Week: at Michigan State
2006 Season: 33 catches for 459 yards and 6 TDs
Barometer: Steady
8.
RB Marshawn Lynch, Cal ? After Lynch left Saturday?s game with an ankle sprain, the offense, including the running game, did not skip a beat. In fact, the Bears flourished with Justin Forsett carrying the load?not exactly a recipe for Heisman success. If Lynch is out for any period of time, his already tenuous campaign is over.
Last Week: 7 carries for 50 yards (Oregon)
This Week: at Washington State
2006 Season: 86 carries for 605 yards and 4 TDs ? 12 catches for 146 yards and 3 TDs
Barometer: Falling
9.
QB Chad Henne, Michigan ? For the time being, another crisp, efficient effort from Henne has the quarterback surpassing teammate Michael Hart as unbeaten Michigan?s most eligible Heisman bachelor. He needed just 11 completions against Michigan State to throw three touchdown passes for the second consecutive week. This week?s primetime, nationally televised trip to Happy Valley will provide an enormous opportunity for Henne to make up some ground in the minds of voters.
Last Week: 11-of-17 for 140 yards and 3 TDs (Michigan State)
This Week: at Penn State
2006 Season: 80-of-129 for 1,103 yards, 13 TDs and 4 INTs
Barometer: Rising
Heisman Contender of the Week
10.
QB Erik Ainge, Tennessee ? Ainge?s resurgent junior season continued with Saturday night?s 51-33 demolition of Georgia between the hedges. The nation?s sixth-rated passer had his hand in three touchdowns, which was good enough to earn Player of the Week recognition and some additional Heisman support. Had he not been picked off last month by Florida safety Reggie Nelson as the Vols drove for the game-winning score, Ainge might be leading this race at the halfway point.
Last Week: 25-of-38 for 268 yards and 2 TDs ? 1 rushing TD (Georgia)
This Week: vs. Alabama
2006 Season: 118-of-171 for 1,657 yards, 14 TDs and 5 INTs ?1 rushing TD
Barometer: Rising
Also Getting Votes ? WR Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech), Michael Hart (Michigan), QB John David Booty (USC), RB Ray Rice (Rutgers), DeSean Jackson (Cal), RB James Davis (Clemson), Nate Longshore (Cal), Chase Daniel (Missouri) and Kenny Irons (Auburn)