Handicapping the race for the Heisman Trophy
By Tim Roberts
Wed, Oct 11, 2006
My condolences to those of you who took
Michael Bush or
Brian Brohm as this year`s Heisman winner-to-be back in August.
They were reasonable bets at they time, but their injuries soon became one of the unforeseeable factors in the Heisman race. The good news for bettors is the favorites for the prize are getting more obvious. Consider the following, however, before laying money down on anyone.
All odds courtesy Pinnaclesports.com, and much historical info from the excellent
Heisman Trophy website.
Backfield or bust
Even if his knee surgery didn`t jeopardize his chances,
Michigan receiver
Mario Manningham`s (+2540) position already did. Same with
Calvin Johnson (+6227) at
Georgia Tech.
The only non-backfield players who took home the prize since players started wearing facemasks are receivers Tim Brown and Desmond Howard and cornerback Charles Woodson. All three were massive threats in the return game.
Manningham will have be content with a shot at the national championship while Johnson will just have to settle for becoming filthy rich as an NFL star.
Ohio State`s Ted Ginn (no odds) could`ve excelled in the Brown and Howard role, but has three factors against him: he`s barely the leading receiver on his own team, his longest return of the year is 22 yards and he has an overachieving teammate. Which leads us to...
Clashing teammates
The Buckeyes boast the current favorite for the trophy in quarterback
Troy Smith (+206). He`s the quarterback on the nation`s No. 1 team and already has 15 touchdown passes in what has largely been a mistake-free season. The Big Ten tops the conferences with 15 past Heisman winners, and Ohio State leads the conference with six of those trophies.
But Ginn and
Antonio Pittman could steal Smith`s thunder with monster games on November 18 against Michigan.
Similarly the Wolverines` Manningham,
Chad Henne (+4101) and
Mike Hart (+1211) are hurting each other`s chances for the Heisman as the year goes on. Manningham puts the points on the board, Henne runs the offense and Hart has been the best player game in and game out.
Don`t look at the 2005
USC Trojans as a reason to lean on one of the Buckeyes or Wolverines. Reggie Bush beating out teammates Matt Leinart and LenDale White was the exception, not the rule. Bush was a spectacular athlete with spectacular performances, regularly standing out even against his talented teammates. With apologies to Smith, it`s a different scenario this year.
It`s more like 2004, when
Oklahoma`s Adrian Peterson (+466) and Jason White finished 2-3, or 2002, when
Miami (Fl.)`s Willis McGahee and Ken Dorsey kept each other from more serious consideration.
Respect your elders
Seniors are favored. Juniors are accepted, but they`d better pack a helluva season.
Sophomores and freshmen just don`t rate, and that kills
Steve Slaton (+805) at
West Virginia. Fair or not, Heisman voters want the trophy winners to have paid their dues. Tony Dorsett had to wait, Herschel Walker had to wait. So will Slaton.
Small school, small chance
The heck with the monster numbers,
Garrett Wolfe (+5000) doesn`t have a chance at
Northern Illinois.
Yes, Wolfe put up 285 yards from scrimmage against Ohio State to start the season, but his team lost 35-12. When Ty Detmer won the Heisman at BYU, he also played the nation`s No. 1 team early in the year. The difference is, Detmer led his Cougars to an upset win over Miami (Fl.) back in 1990.
The candidates from the major conferences have tough opponents nearly every week from here on in. The MAC isn`t a joke, but giving Wolfe the Heisman would be.
Voter bias
Heisman voters totally ignore the small schools and do a good job of ignoring a lot of big ones.
It`s not surprising that the Big XII and Big Ten lead in Heisman wins in the entire history of the award and over the past 20 years. But it is very surprising that the SEC teams have only been home to one winner of the past 20. The ultra-competitive schedule and stat-stunting defenses really put a clamp on the conference`s skill players like
Kenny Irons (+4101) at
Auburn and
Erik Ainge (no odds) at
Tennessee.
Hey, if Peyton Manning can lose to a Big Ten defensive back, then who is Ainge to suddenly act as the saviour of the SEC?
Remaining schedule
Don`t overestimate players whose teams have already been through their tough games and similarly, don`t underestimate teams yet to hit the tough spots.
It`s another factor against Slaton that his only remaining huge game is in Louisville on Nov. 2.
Cal`s Marshawn Lynch (+5158), who will have to light up the USC defense on Nov. 18 to make a decent impression on voters. There`s no real chance to do so before or after for either.
John David Booty (+4101), on the other hand, ends the season with USC`s three biggest Pac-10 games plus a visit from
Notre Dame. Plenty of chances to win votes.
Intangibles
Florida`s Chris Leak (+2026) is a sweet-throwing senior quarterback on a potential national champion. Unfortunately, he`s the second-most talked about quarterback on his own team. I assume Heisman voters have seen the Gators` two biggest games of the year against Tennessee and
LSU? It would be a touch, umm, how to say this... "ludicrous" (yeah that`s the word), to give the award to Leak when a freshman quarterback is regularly taking key snaps for the Gators.
Then there`s
Brady Quinn (+302). He`s a senior quarterback with monster numbers at Notre Dame, which has as many Heisman winners as anyone (seven), but has been shut out since Brown won in 1987. Voters are gagging to give an award to an Irish man and Quinn is the best candidate to come from South Bend in a while.
Unfortunately for the Golden Dome posse, Quinn`s nationally-televised performances against Georgia Tech and Michigan were downers. His only chance to boost himself above second or third in the voting is with a huge game against USC. The Irish play the service academies, UNC and UCLA before facing USC. High-profile games but not as good as ending the season with a Big Ten or SEC schedule. Too many other players will have too many other chances to impress.
And the winner is (or at least the best value) ...
Peterson at +466. Yeah, the Sooners have already lost two games, but team record isn`t as huge a factor as you`d think in Heisman voting. Peterson is the best running back in the country and plies his trade for a school that voters love. Ricky Williams at Texas, Marcus Allen at USC and Bo Jackson at Auburn filled similar roles and all walked away with the Heisman. All three played for teams who lost at least three games that same year.
Peterson has acquitted himself well in both of Oklahoma`s losses. He was dominant against
Oregon and was the focal point for the
Texas defense yet still put up triple-digit rushing yards. He has a solid schedule remaining with lots of traditional conference showdowns against above-average teams. Each and every one of them, however, represents a 200-plus yard opportunity. Troy Smith has been fantastic and Brady Quinn has the whole "Touchdown Jesus" thing, but Peterson was the best talent in the country two years ago and voters will be happy to reward another monster season with the Sooners.