2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[OregonBuckeye]

The way I see it, four teams control their own destiny:

1. tOSU
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. ND

You have to put Rutgers/West Virginia/Louisville ahead of ND since they have no losses.

 

[JXC]

I think three teams control their destiny...Ohio State, Michigan, and USC. The rest need help to get in. If ND beats USC, an undefeated West Virgina or Louisville would probably get in.

Was Iowa (who is likely now unranked) looking past Indiana to Michigan or what?

 

[Jaxbuck]

My .02:

#1 The winner of The Game will be undefeated and playing for the NC. Paint the endzones. There's half the NC picture solved right now.

#2 The winner of WVU/UL will more than likely be undefeated as well. Both teams have to play at Pitt and play Rutgers but I'm not holding my breath.

#3 USC ceratinly looks shakey but if they do run the table they will out-BCS the BE winner.

So essentially you have the 2 BE schools, USC and then all the 1 loss teams fighting for the spot opposite the OSU/scUM winner. As far as the 1 loss teams go Texas and any 1 loss SEC team will probably outrank ND so they have quite the list of things that need to happen imo.

 

[Dublin Buckeyes]

Because ESPN won't run 6 weeks of "Are the 2006 Buckeyes teh greatest team evar!!!11!!111!! one one one" before our bowl game if we're #2.

Well obviously USC 2005 is greater than Nebraska '95, FSU '99, OSU '02, pretty much everyone.

The real question I always ask, is could Ditka beat USC '05? I doubt it, I mean Ditka is one man, USC is a 3-Peat National Champion.

2003-2005 Forever!

The way I see it, four teams control their own destiny:

1. tOSU
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. ND

ND??????? What do they control? I guess ND along with USC might have control of the ESPN hype machine, but I don't see ND doing anything but waiting for an At-large bid, just like last year, no matter how many games they lose from here on out.

 

[Best Buckeye]

Well obviously USC 2005 is greater than Nebraska '95, FSU '99, OSU '02, pretty much everyone.

The real question I always ask, is could Ditka beat USC '05? I doubt it, I mean Ditka is one man, USC is a 3-Peat National Champion.

2003-2005 Forever!



ND??????? What do they control? I guess ND along with USC might have control of the ESPN hype machine, but I don't see ND doing anything but waiting for an At-large bid, just like last year, no matter how many games they lose from here on out.

I agree all the way with the ND . Too many teams would have to lose. WV could beat Louis and tOSU will beat Meech. So even if ND beats USC do they climb above all the unfeated? Lord I hope not. I wouldnt put it past the media to try.
:osu:

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

Regardless of who we play in the NC game, we will play our toughest opponent of the year on Nov. 18th. Make no mistake about it.

 

[sandgk]

ND??????? What do they control? I guess ND along with USC might have control of the ESPN hype machine, but I don't see ND doing anything but waiting for an At-large bid, just like last year, no matter how many games they lose from here on out.

I agree that ND does not have control of their destiny, but they are in a favorable position to win out till their game with USC and watch the unbeatens knock each other off.
This is true because ND does have going in their favor a very high relative ranking in the computer portion of the BCS calculation. This elevates them - based on last weeks polls - to #6 in the nation in the calculated BCS rankings. Following the Gator loss this may now be #5.
On paper the remainder of NDs schedule is weaker than the top part of the slate (other than USC). This could negatively impact that Computer generated rating, but also bolster their standing in the human polls. Meanwhile everyone above them OSU, TSUN, W. Va, UF etc) still have one or more tough games remaining on their schedule.
So, you have the prospect of attrition eliminating intermediate contenders and leaving ND pretty well positioned for that game in LA late in November.

 

[sandgk]

The latest USA Today (Coaches) Poll is out.
Florida drops 7 spots.
Ohio State has every first place vote. :)
Iowa drops 10 spots on their loss.
Wisconsin enters the ranks of the top 25 in this poll, being ranked 27th last week.
Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1______ Ohio State (63) (7-0) 1575 1
2______ USC (6-0) 1476 2
3______ Michigan (7-0) 1430 5
4______ West Virginia (6-0) 1411 4
5______ Texas (6-1) 1314 6
6______ Louisville (6-0) 1205 7
7______ Auburn (6-1) 1122 10
8______ Notre Dame (5-1) 1068 8
9______ Tennessee (5-1) 1060 9
10______Florida (6-1) 1045 3
11______California (6-1) 981 11
12______Clemson (6-1) 896 12
13______Georgia Tech (5-1) 703 15
14______LSU (5-2) 682 16
15______Oregon (5-1) 660 18
16______Nebraska (6-1) 596 20
17______Boise State (6-0) 575 19
18______Arkansas (5-1) 532 23
19______Rutgers (6-0) 415 24
20______Oklahoma (4-2) 354 22
21______Boston College (5-1) 321 25
22______Wisconsin (6-1) 288 27
23______Iowa (5-2) 172 13
24______Georgia (5-2) 139 14
25______Texas A&M (6-1) 111 31

 

[LordJeffBuck]

I can't understand the lack of respect for Arkansas. The Razorbacks beat Auburn, on the road, 27-10, yet they are 11 places behind Auburn, and only the fifth highest-rated team from the SEC? Maybe the victory over Auburn will ultimately prove to be a fluke, but in the mean time Arkansas deserves to be more highly rated, IMHO.

 

[BB73]

[rant]

Dammit, look at all those coaches still voting somebody else #1. tOSU gets no respect nationally, and I ....what, tOSU got every #1 vote?

[/rant]

:! Never mind.

Seriously, I agree that only 3 teams control their own destiny: tOSU, TSUN, and USC.

If the West Va-Lousville winner finishes undefeated, they'd be next in line if there are less than 2 undefeated among the 3 listed above. After that, a 1-loss SEC team (Tenn/Auburn/Fla) would also be ahead of ND, even if they run the table and beat USC.

Having Florida and Tennessee behind ND right now is a disgrace.

EDIT - LJB, I just did my poll and I have Ark 12th and ND 13th.

 

[sandgk]

I can't understand the lack of respect for Arkansas. The Razorbacks beat Auburn, on the road, 27-10, yet they are 11 places behind Auburn, and only the fifth highest-rated team from the SEC? Maybe the victory over Auburn will ultimately prove to be a fluke, but in the mean time Arkansas deserves to be more highly rated, IMHO.

Excellent point.
In fact one or more of the computer rankings agree with your position.
Sagarin in particular has Arkansas ranked #4 in the ELO _ CHESS rating (that which is employed by the BCS) though the overall rating from Sagarin - which is a composite of ELO _ CHESS and PREDICTOR rates them 22nd.
Colley had them ranked last week at 12, Anderson & Hester #7.

 

[Best Buckeye]

Great ! The bucks get all the N01 votes. I am a little surprised that USC stayed ahead of Meecch after the way they almost lost to ASU last night. and I'm glad to see ND stay up higher in the top ten.
Here is some BCS stuff
http://www.bcsfootball.org/cfb/story/6049454
"
On Sunday, October 15, the road to the BCS National Championship Game officially begins with the unveiling of this season's first BCS Standings live on FOX at approximately 4:15 PM ET during NFL postgame coverage. "

 

[scooter1369]

I'll admit, I'm late to the Arkansas bandwagon. I'm just not conviced about them yet.

I am still convinced Mizzou is better than they looked yesterday at Kyle Field though. They blew that game and had evry opportunity to win it. Pinkel needs to regroup his boys.

 

[sandgk]

The BCS meaningless but otherwise respected AP Poll is now out.
West Virginia still getting those oddball California votes?
Ohio State has all remaining first place votes.
Florida drops 7 places to #9 - one spot above ND, the Arkansas watch has them at #15 up two spots from last week.
Michigan solid at #2 after downing Penn State in Happy Valley.
Iowa plays "Where's Waldo" in this poll.
Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1______ Ohio State (63) (7-0) 1623 1
2______ Michigan (7-0) 1528 4
3______ USC (6-0) 1465 3
4______ West Virginia (2) (6-0) 1459 5
5______ Texas (6-1) 1355 6
6______ Louisville (6-0) 1223 7
7______ Tennessee (5-1) 1179 8
8______ Auburn (6-1) 1176 11
9______ Florida (6-1) 1143 2
10______Notre Dame (5-1) 1042 9
11______California (6-1) 1027 10
12______Clemson (6-1) 885 12
13______Georgia Tech (5-1) 772 13
14______LSU (5-2) 751 14
15______Arkansas (5-1) 734 17
16______Oregon (5-1) 639 18
17______Nebraska (6-1) 555 21
18______Boise State (6-0) 519 20
19______Rutgers (6-0) 400 24
20______Oklahoma (4-2) 394 23
21______Wisconsin (6-1) 366 25
22______Boston College (5-1) 330 26
23______Texas A&M (6-1) 127 NR
24______Missouri (6-1) 93 19
25______Wake Forest (6-1) 83 35

 

[Welsh0913]

What time does the BCS poll come out?