2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[OregonBuckeye]

Why?

It's quite simple, really. 0 losses>1 loss.

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

I must not understand something, how exactly is ohio state BETTER than the 1.000 in both polls?

 

[BB73]

I must not understand something, how exactly is ohio state BETTER than the 1.000 in both polls?

They shouldn't be. Those numbers need to be updated so vote totals are divided by (the number of actual voters times 25).

bcsfootball.org


Compilation of Standings

The Standings include three components: USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive College Football Poll and an average of six computer rankings. Each component will count one-third toward a team's overall BCS score.

All three components shall be added together and averaged for a team's ranking in the BCS Standings. The team with the highest average shall rank first in
the BCS Standings. The first BCS Standings of the 2005 season will be released on Sunday, October 15. The BCS Standings will be used for:


1. Selecting the teams that will participate in the national championship game.
2. Determining any other automatic qualifiers; and,

3. Establishing the pool of eligible teams for at-large selection.


Polls

In the Harris Interactive College Football Poll and USA Today Coaches Poll, a team will be evaluated on the number of voting points it receives in each poll. A team's Harris Interactive score will be its points in the poll divided by its total possible voting points (2850=114 x 25). The same formula will apply to the USA Today Coaches poll and its total voting points (1550=62 x 25).

The number of actual voters, which can vary, is figured into the computation on a weekly basis in stating each team's percentage of a possible perfect score.

 

[sandgk]

It's quite simple, really. 0 losses>1 loss.

O losses to sisters of the poor vs 1 loss to another well ranked team does not = 0>1

Relativism is needed.

Here are the full 25 rankings

BCS Standings
Rk --- Team --- W-L ---- Harris ----------------- Coaches --------------- CPU % - BCS
--- --- -------------------- Rk --- Points --- % --- Rk --- Points --- % --- -------- Prev --- Avg
1 --- Ohio State --- 7-0 --- 1 --- 2848 --- 1.008 --- 1 --- 1575 --- 1.016 -- .000 --- 4 --- .973
2 --- USC ---------- 6-0 --- 3 --- 2652 --- .939 --- 2 --- 1476 --- .952 --- .000 --- 1 --- .956
3 --- Michigan ---- 7-0 --- 2 --- 2663 --- .943 --- 3 --- 1430 --- .923 --- .000 --- 20 --- .934
4 --- Auburn ------ 6-1 --- 7 --- 2055 --- .727 --- 7 --- 1122 --- .724 --- .000 --- 9 --- .748
5 --- W. Va. ------ 6-0 --- 4 --- 2502 --- .886 --- 4 --- 1411 --- .910 --- .000 --- 11 --- .745
6 --- Florida ------ 6-1 --- 9 --- 1935 --- .685 --- 10 --- 1045 --- .674 --- .000 --- 17 --- .738
7 --- Louisville --- 6-0 --- 6 --- 2188 --- .775 --- 6 --- 1205 --- .777 --- .000 --- 19 --- .718
8 --- Notre Dame- 5-1 --- 10 --- 1920 --- .680 --- 8 --- 1068 --- .689 --- .000 --- 6 --- .694
9 --- Texas -------- 6-1 --- 5 --- 2360 --- .835 --- 5 --- 1314 --- .848 --- .000 --- 2 --- .684
10 --- California - 6-1 --- 11 --- 1772 --- .627 --- 11 --- 981 --- .633 --- .000 --- 0 --- .668
11 --- Tennessee - 5-1 --- 8 --- 2009 --- .711 --- 9 --- 1060 --- .684 --- .000 --- 0 --- .653
12 --- Clemson --- 6-1 --- 12 --- 1607 --- .569 --- 12 --- 896 --- .578 --- .000 --- 0 --- .504
13 --- Arkansas -- 5-1 --- 17 --- 1044 --- .370 --- 18 --- 532 --- .343 --- .000 --- 0 --- .471
14 --- Oregon --- 5-1 --- 15 --- 1136 --- .402 --- 15 --- 660 --- .426 --- .000 --- 5 --- .449
15 --- Boise St.-- 6-0 --- 18 --- 942 --- .333 --- 17 --- 575 --- .371 --- .000 --- 0 --- .432
16 --- Rutgers --- 6-0 --- 19 --- 746 --- .264 --- 19 --- 415 --- .268 --- .000 --- 0 --- .395
17 --- Nebraska - 6-1 --- 16 --- 1088 --- .385 --- 16 --- 596 --- .385 --- .000 --- 0 --- .354
18 --- LSU ------ 5-2 --- 14 --- 1241 --- .439 --- 14 --- 682 --- .440 --- .000 --- 12 --- .350
19 --- Ga Tech -- 5-1 --- 13 --- 1289 --- .456 --- 13 --- 703 --- .454 --- .000 --- 24 --- .340
20 --- BC -------- 5-1 --- 21 --- 605 --- .214 --- 21 --- 321 --- .207 --- .000 --- 21 --- .259
21 --- Wisc. ----- 6-1 --- 22 --- 567 --- .201 --- 22 --- 288 --- .186 --- .000 --- 18 --- .254
22 --- OU ------- 4-2 --- 20 --- 654 --- .232 --- 20 --- 354 --- .228 --- .000 --- 23 --- .158
23 --- Iowa ----- 5-2 --- 23 --- 290 --- .103 --- 23 --- 172 --- .111 --- .000 --- 0 --- .070
24 --- Missouri - 6-1 --- 25 --- 221 --- .078 --- 27 --- 89 --- .057 --- .000 --- 0 --- .680
25 --- Tulsa ----- 5-1 --- 33 --- 5 --- .002 --- - --- - --- .000 --- .000 --- 0 --- .06

I must not understand something, how exactly is ohio state BETTER than the 1.000 in both polls?

That did look curious to me as well. We need to look at the calculation used.
For Harris I think the correct number should be

2848/2850 = 0.999, rather than the 1.008 displayed, invert those numbers though and you end up with 1.007

For Coaches the same calcualtion should yield
1575/1575 = 1.00

Now, if someone at BCS used the methodology as described in this page

that would lead to a Coaches Poll calculation of:
1575/1550 = 1.016 or if you will the mistake that was printed by Fox / MSN
I'll call this overly fair and unbalanced reporting :)
Less generously, do you think they made an error in the calculation? I do.

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

Ok, so we got that straightened out, next question, why are all of the computers listed as 0's? just more fox/msn bafoonery?

 

[TheMile]

I'm interested in the possibility of a UM-OSU rematch in the National Championship Game. If WVA, Louisville, and USC all fall and The Game is a close one, which 1 loss team is going to jump the loser?

I know pollsters hate late season losses, but I'd have to think a 1 loss Michigan would remain above a 1 loss ND in the polls given how our game was so high profile and such a complete asskicking. Maybe I'm underestimating the media's absurd love for the Irish.

After that, I think a 1 loss Tennessee/Florida/Auburn would be the major danger, but I think a rematch is a real possibility.

 

[bucknut11]

I'm interested in the possibility of a UM-OSU rematch in the National Championship Game. If WVA, Louisville, and USC all fall and The Game is a close one, which 1 loss team is going to jump the loser?

I know pollsters hate late season losses, but I'd have to think a 1 loss Michigan would remain above a 1 loss ND in the polls given how our game was so high profile and such a complete asskicking. Maybe I'm underestimating the media's absurd love for the Irish.

After that, I think a 1 loss Tennessee/Florida/Auburn would be the major danger, but I think a rematch is a real possibility.

It's not too often we get to beat you guys twice in one season. Troy Smith could become the first QB to beat TSUN 4 times in his career.


Seriously though, I'd love to see it, but I think the possibility of it happening is fairly unlikely. I would doubt the powers that be want to see a conference NC game.

 

[tedginn05]

I must not understand something, how exactly is ohio state BETTER than the 1.000 in both polls?

We're that damn good.


But really, I don't know.:tongue2:

 

[methomps]

It's quite simple, really. 0 losses>1 loss.

1 loss>2 losses. With that in mind, go look up the rankings of Ohio State (2 losses) and Oregon (1 loss) in last year's BCS.

 

[BuckBackHome]

1 loss>2 losses. With that in mind, go look up the rankings of Ohio State (2 losses) and Oregon (1 loss) in last year's BCS.

I no knot what ewe are speaking of? I love a life of ignorance.

 

[BB73]

I'm interested in the possibility of a UM-OSU rematch in the National Championship Game. If WVA, Louisville, and USC all fall and The Game is a close one, which 1 loss team is going to jump the loser?

I know pollsters hate late season losses, but I'd have to think a 1 loss Michigan would remain above a 1 loss ND in the polls given how our game was so high profile and such a complete asskicking. Maybe I'm underestimating the media's absurd love for the Irish.

After that, I think a 1 loss Tennessee/Florida/Auburn would be the major danger, but I think a rematch is a real possibility.

It's unlikely, but possible. Florida got the re-match with FSU after the 1996 season under the Bowl Alliance, which didn't include the Big Ten and the Pac 10.

I'd add Cal and Texas to your list. If Cal beats USC, and their only loss is the early one to Tennessee, many voters will see that score and not remember how badly they were dominated.

Texas is the highest rated 1-loss team in the human polls, so they also have to be considered a factor. But a close result in The Game could leave both teams ahead of the 'horns.

 

[TheMile]

I'd add Cal and Texas to your list. If Cal beats USC, and their only loss is the early one to Tennessee, many voters will see that score and not remember how badly they were dominated.

The computers don't like Texas at all, and I don't blame them - the Big 12 is weak this year. I also don't see a one loss Texas jumping a one loss OSU, and against a one loss Michigan, the voters would have to choose between rematches anyway. You're right about Cal; I was assuming they lose to USC.

It's as you say - unlikely, but possible. Tantalizingly possible.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

O losses to sisters of the poor vs 1 loss to another well ranked team does not = 0>1

Relativism is needed.

I didn't say I agree with it but the polls are going to have an undefeated Louisville or West Virginia team ahead of a 1-loss ND team.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

1 loss>2 losses. With that in mind, go look up the rankings of Ohio State (2 losses) and Oregon (1 loss) in last year's BCS.

Ohio St.'s SOS was 4th in the nation while Oregon's was 47th. I don't think there will be that much of a difference between ND's schedule and Louisville's/West Virginia's. I could be wrong but I don't think it's a smart idea to say ND has more control of their destiny than UL/WVU.

 

[Steve19]

Here is the BCS in pdf format from ESPN. Ohio State's poll ratings do not exceed 1.00 points. Sorry, can't get this to post in readable fashion otherwise.