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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

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Canton

No big surprise for OSU
Monday, October 16, 2006
[FONT=Verdana, Times New Roman, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]By Todd Porter REPOSITORY SPORTS WRITER[/FONT]
16osu.jpg

Offensive tackle Kirk Barton (74), a Perry High School graduate, and the Ohio State football team are ranked No. 1 in the initial Bowl Championship Series. Ohio State, Southern Cal and Michigan control their own density as the Buckeyes and Wolverines play Nov. 18 in what could be a showdown to determine who gets to play for the national title. ​


COLUMBUS If the college football season ended today, Ohio State would play Southern Cal in the BCS national championship game.
It's a good thing the season doesn't end today, because No. 2 Michigan would not have a voice, and the Wolverines don't plan on playing with a sock in their mouth. Michigan could have the final say in whether Ohio State goes to the BCS national title game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
The Buckeyes, ranked No. 1 in both the writers and coaches' poll by near unanimous proportions, became the first Big Ten team to hold the top spot in the initial Bowl Championship Series rankings, when they were released Sunday evening.
"We appreciate the recognition of our difficult schedule, but we are fully aware that the final poll is the only one that matters," Ohio State Head Coach Jim Tressel said Sunday evening.
Southern Cal is second and Michigan third, just percentage points behind. Then there is a slight dropoff to another bunch at fourth through seventh - Auburn, West Virginia, Florida and Louisville.
But the Buckeyes didn't sweep the three components of the BCS rankings.
The BCS takes a compilation of the Harris Interactive and USA Today coaches' polls and the average of six computer polls?- of which each team's highest and lowest rankings are dropped.
Ohio State has all 63 first-place votes in the USA Today poll. The Buckeyes also have 63 of 65 first-place votes in The Associated Press poll, which is not part of the BCS equation.
Computers aren't as convinced. Ohio State's computer average is No. 3, trailing Southern Cal and Michigan.
The Buckeyes (7-0) have games left against Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan. Head Coach Jim Tressel doesn't seem too concerned about the initial rankings. There is still more than a month of football to play.
"I didn't even know that the BCS rankings were coming out (Sunday), so that tells you how much stock I put into it," Tressel said last week.
"The only thing we've ever discussed about the BCS from the get-go is the only chance you have to play in the championship game is if you win all of your regular-season games. So we better go to work and try to do that and worry about the BCS rankings some other time. That's the way we've always approached it."
The Ohio State-Michigan game Nov. 18 at Ohio Stadium will be for a spot in the national title game so long as neither team loses before then.
"The top three teams control their own destiny, and that's a little unusual this early to have a small number of teams in that position," said Jerry Palm, a BCS analyst and operator of collegebcs.com. "Now, that can change, and there are a bunch of teams behind the top three needing help."
The Buckeyes' four opponents prior to Michigan are a combined 10-18 . The Wolverines play Iowa, Northwestern, Ball State and Indiana, a combined 13-15.
Southern Cal has a tougher road ahead. The Trojans have six games left against opponents with a combined 20-13 record. Three of those teams - Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame - are ranked.
Does Ohio State have to beat Michigan to get to the national championship game?
Probably, according to Palm, who has been analyzing the BCS since its inception in 1998. Mathematically, though, the answer is no.
"Ohio State can lose to Michigan and still play for a national title," Palm said. "There are a lot of teams whose seasons don't end until Dec. 3. If you lose that day, you drop in the polls and have no chance to come back. Ohio State's last game is Nov. 18. There are two full weeks of the season left then.
"Ohio State could lose, not drop very far in the polls and if the teams in front of them lose, they could be No. 2. ... It pays to lose early, but early is relative."
And that means, although the odds are long, a second Ohio State-Michigan game could be held in the desert.
The Buckeyes would much rather settle that score in Columbus. Reach Repository sports writer Todd Porter at (330) 580-8340 or e-mail: [email protected]
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Link

OSU, USC, Michigan lead BCS race



October 16, 2006
the associated press

NEW YORK -- Let the countdown begin to what could be the biggest Ohio State-Michigan game ever.

The Buckeyes and Wolverines, along with Southern California, topped the first Bowl Championship Series standings released Sunday, putting the Big Ten powers and the Trojans in control of the national title race.
The first-place Buckeyes and third-place Wolverines play in Columbus on Nov. 18. If the archrivals can avoid a major upset before then, the winner of that game is all but assured of a spot in the BCS title game. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan has an opponent currently ranked left on their schedules -- besides each other.
Second-place USC still has the toughest part of its schedule ahead, but if the Trojans remain unbeaten they'll most likely play in a third straight title game.

The top two teams in the final BCS standings will meet Jan. 8 in the title game at the new stadium in Glendale, Ariz., that will also be the site of the Fiesta Bowl. For the first time, the BCS title game will played about a week after the four major bowls -- the Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.
The Buckeyes have a commanding lead in the coaches' poll and the Harris poll, which count for two-thirds of a BCS average. Ohio State (7-0) comes in third behind USC (6-0) and Michigan (7-0) in the computer rankings used for the other third.
In the coaches' poll, USC was No. 2 and Michigan was third. In the Harris poll, Michigan is No. 2 with a slight edge on USC.
The Buckeyes' BCS average was .9731 out of a possible 1.000. USC's average was .9559 and Michigan's was .9341.
In the AP poll, Ohio State was No. 1, followed by Michigan and USC.
Auburn was in fourth place in the BCS standings, ahead of unbeaten West Virginia. Florida was sixth and unbeaten Louisville was seventh.
Notre Dame, Texas and California rounded out the top 10. The Fighting Irish would qualify for an at-large bid with a top-12 finish in the BCS, and can also earn an automatic bid with a top-eight finish.
Michigan's 17-10 victory over Penn State on Saturday night, combined with Auburn's 27-17 win over previously unbeaten Florida, cemented the Wolverines' spot in the top three of the BCS standings.
The Gators and Tigers both have one loss and will need lots of help to reach the national title game, which leaves Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville yearning for a playoff system.
"Until we get a playoff, the SEC's going to be on the outside looking in," Tuberville said Sunday, the day after his Tigers knocked off Florida to leave the Southeastern Conference with no unbeaten teams. "I don't think it will ever happen."
"I think people are enamored by not losing, rather than voting on who the best teams are," he said. "The national champion to me is the best team at the end of the year, not the team that goes through their schedule."
Two years ago, Auburn went 13-0 and was left out of the BCS title game in favor of USC and Oklahoma, who were both undefeated.
The teams that seem to be in danger of being undefeated and left out of the title game this season are West Virginia and Louisville. The Big East rivals meet Nov. 2, but unless one of those top three teams drops a game -- or there is a dramatic and unexpected shift in the polls -- the Mountaineers and Cardinals can't win enough to catch up.
USC remained unbeaten Saturday with a 28-21 victory at home over Arizona State, the third straight game in which the Trojans have played down to the wire with an unranked team. USC has been either first or second in the BCS standings for 25 straight weeks.
The winners of the Big Ten, Big 12, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big East, Southeastern Conference and Pac-10 earn automatic bids to the multimillion-dollar BCS games.
Teams from outside the automatic qualifying leagues earn a BCS bid automatically by finishing in the top 12. That means unbeaten Boise State at 15th in the standings still has work to do to earn an at-large bid out of the Western Athletic Conference. The Broncos' BCS average was .4319.
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DDN

Buckeyes atop first BCS standings

The rating puts Ohio State in position to play in the Jan. 8 national championship game.


By Doug Harris
Staff Writer

Monday, October 16, 2006

COLUMBUS ? The computers may not be showing the Ohio State football team much love, but coach Jim Tressel's team is the darling of the human polls.
The Buckeyes claimed the No. 1 spot in the first Bowl Championship Series standings released Sunday by virtue of their commanding position as the top-ranked team in a pair of polls that account for two-thirds of the formula.
"We appreciate the recognition of our difficult schedule, but we are fully aware that the final poll is the only one that matters," Tressel said.
They snagged all 63 first-place votes in the USA Today coaches poll and 112 of 114 in the Harris Interactive ratings.
But they were a mere third in the average of the computer polls that make up the other third of the BCS, getting the top rating in only one of the six.
OSU had a .973 rating, followed by Southern California (.956) and Michigan (.934). It's the first time the Big Ten has held two of the top three spots.
Florida fell to sixth after losing Saturday to Auburn, which was a distant fourth.
The top two teams in the final BCS poll will play for the national title Jan. 8 on Fox-TV, which invited former Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez to join its NFL crew during the live announcement of the initial standings.
Fox's Terry Bradshaw and Howie Long both picked the Buckeyes to reach the championship game.
"I like the Buckeyes' quarterback," Long said, referring to Troy Smith. "I like the coach. When he's got a month to prepare, Tressel's about as good as it gets."
"He is," said Alvarez, who is the only Big Ten coach with a winning record against Tressel, having gone 3-1. "And the question mark was the defense going into the season. A young defense, could it hold up? Their defense is playing super."
OSU and Michigan were ranked No. 1 and 2 by Harris and in The Associated Press poll, which isn't part of the BCS. The Wolverines leapfrogged Southern Cal, which has been winning unimpressively.
 
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Link

Let the BCS chaos begin

Published October 16, 2006


The first BCS standings of the season, released Sunday, held no real surprises. Certainly, the top three spots were as expected: Unbeaten Ohio State is No. 1, followed by unbeaten USC and unbeaten Michigan.

The two Big East unbeatens -- West Virginia and Louisville -- are fifth and seventh, respectively. Two one-loss SEC teams -- No. 4 Auburn and No. 6 Florida -- keep the Big East teams from being higher.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that reigning national champion Texas is ninth. The polls love the Longhorns, who are fifth in both the Harris Interactive and USA Today coaches polls. But the computers don't like the Longhorns, whose cumulative computer rank was only 15th.

USC is helped by its computer standing, ranking No. 1, with Michigan second and Ohio State third.

West Virginia is fourth in both polls, but the Mountaineers are 14th in the computer rank. WVU is ranked fifth by one computer, but one has them 22nd and another 17th.

The three components of the standings are the coaches poll; the Harris poll, voted on by media members and by former players, coaches and administrators; and six computers. Each of the components counts one-third. The best and worst computer ranking are thrown out, and the others are averaged to come up with the BCS' computer number. While strength of schedule isn't a BCS component, all six computers have a strength-of-schedule factor in their rankings.

The final BCS standings are released Dec. 3. Teams first and second in the final standings meet in the BCS National Championship Game on Jan.8 in Glendale, Ariz.

Two non-BCS league schools are in the top 25: Boise State at 15th and Tulsa at 25th. A non-BCS league team finishing in the top 12 is guaranteed a BCS berth. The computers love Boise, with the Broncos 11th in the computer component. They are 17th (coaches) and 18th (Harris) in the polls.

Unbeaten Rutgers is 16th in the standings, thanks to a ranking of ninth in the computer component; that's the highest of any Big East team. The Scarlet Knights (6-0), 19th in both polls, have beaten North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio U., Division I-AA Howard, USF and Navy.

Five unbeatens have a legit shot at the title game: Louisville, Michigan, Ohio State, USC and West Virginia. Remember, though, that Louisville hosts West Virginia on Nov. 2, and Michigan is at Ohio State on Nov. 18. USC, which has won its past three games by 19 total points, still has to play California, Notre Dame and Oregon -- all in the top 14 in the BCS.

What all that means is one-loss teams in the current BCS top 10 still have title dreams.
 
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Dispatch

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
OSU on top in first BCS rankings
Team?s computer average trails USC, Michigan

Monday, October 16, 2006

Tim May
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH




Maybe Ohio State still has to prove itself to the computer geeks, but in the overall computations the Buckeyes stood on top of the first edition of the Bowl Championship Series rankings yesterday, ahead of Southern California and Michigan.
OSU is the unanimous No. 1 in the USA Today coaches poll, and it received all but one of the 113 first-place votes in the Harris Interactive poll, two of the BCS formula?s three components. But the Buckeyes were No. 1 in just one of the six computer rankings used for the third component. They were No. 3 in the other five, and since the highest and lowest are dropped, their computer average was third, behind USC and Michigan.
Based on the love the computers were showing for USC, some experts projected last week Ohio State would be No. 2 in the BCS?s first ratings. But previously unbeaten Florida losing to Auburn on Saturday night helped change that, along with Michigan jumping from fourth to second ? and over USC ? in the Harris poll.
The Buckeyes know the key is being in the top two in the final BCS ratings Dec. 3, because those teams will move on to the national title game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
"We appreciate the recognition of our difficult schedule, but we are fully aware that the final poll is the only one that matters," OSU coach Jim Tressel said.
Still, having the computer rankings disrepect them is a little unsettling, OSU guard T.J. Downing said.
"We?ve beaten the No. 2 team in the country (Texas), the No. 11 team (Iowa), and we?ve beaten everybody else," he said. "So anybody saying that we?re not No. 1 in any category of any poll or anything, it?s absurd to me, because we are the No. 1 team in the country."
On the other hand, the computer rankings like Auburn, despite the fact it was upset by Arkansas two weeks ago. The Tigers are No. 4 in the BCS, even though they are No. 7 in both the Harris and USA Today polls. In the BCS, they are ahead of unbeaten West Virginia, which is No. 4 in both major polls but has a computer average ranking of 14 th.
The bottom line is there are three teams at the moment who can control their destiny by winning out: Ohio State, USC and Michigan. OSU and Michigan will be favored to win their next four games before their meeting Nov. 18 in Ohio Stadium, which for all intents and purposes could be a national semifinal.
USC, meanwhile, despite being the darling of the computer rankings, has struggled to win the past two games. But it will face a key final four starting Nov. 11 vs. Oregon, followed by California, Notre Dame and UCLA. The first three are home games, though, and they?ll play UCLA a few miles away in the Rose Bowl.
[email protected]
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CPD

NATIONAL INSIDER

Human touch puts Bucks atop BCS

Monday, October 16, 2006
Doug Lesmerises Plain Dealer Reporter


Here is a quick six around the world of college football.

1. Ohio State on top: So the Buckeyes are the third best team in the country, or so the comput ers say. But since nearly every voting human is pro-OSU, Ohio State holds a commanding lead in the first Bowl Championship Series rankings released Sunday.
Here's your BCS refresher.
The Harris Interactive poll, the USA Today coaches poll and six combined computer rankings each make up one-third of the standings. What matters in the polls are total votes, so with all 63 first-place votes from the coaches, the Buckeyes had a per fect score of 1.000. With 112 out of 114 first-place Harris votes, the Buckeyes scored .999.
"We appreciate the recognition of our difficult schedule," Ohio State coach Jim Tressel said Sunday night, "but we are fully aware that the final poll is the only one that matters."
The computers didn't recog nize Ohio State's schedule, at least compared to USC and Mich igan. Five of the six computers had OSU third, behind both the Trojans and Wolverines. That computer third of the final stand ings is tabulated by throwing out the best and worst computer rankings for each team and aver aging the other four. So USC, with five firsts and a second, had a perfect 1.000; Michigan, with five seconds and one third, scored .960; and the Buckeyes, with a first and five thirds, scored .920.
Adding together Ohio State's 1.000, .999 and .920 and averag ing them arrived at its score of .9731, ahead of USC's .9559 and Michigan's .9341. Auburn was fourth at .7478. It should be a major relief to the top three that Florida's loss Saturday elimi nated the last chance of an unde feated SEC team.
With the computers loving USC, it's abundantly clear the Trojans will play the Ohio State- Michigan winner in the BCS title game if everyone wins out. And frankly, even a one-loss Trojan team might make the champion ship, because the other unde feated title contenders, West Vir ginia and Louisville, aren't getting computer respect, ranked 14th and 10th, respectively, by the computers at the moment. Сge=005 Column=001 OK,0001.01ߠ 2. Big Ten on top: The confer ence could puff out its chest with two Big Ten teams in the top three of the BCS for the first time since the creation of the rankings in 1998.
Michigan made other news by Сge=005 Column=002 OK,0000.00ߠjumping to the No. 2 spot in the AP poll behind the Buckeyes. This is the first time a conference has had the top two AP teams since Nebraska and Kansas State in 2000, and it's the first time two Big Ten teams have been on Сge=005 Column=003 OK,0000.00ߠtop since Iowa and Michigan in 1985. The Buckeyes and Wolver ines were last on top together in September 1976, when Michigan was No. 1 and OSU No. 2. 3. Get your own show: The new format for releasing the BCS standings is disconcerting. An nouncing it as part of the NFL show on Fox makes no sense - does anyone really want to hear how Terry Bradshaw likes "Gon zalez" for Ohio State? 4. Poll woes: We've reached the point where everyone is beating everyone else, so voting is more difficult. Still, the fact that 5-1 Arkansas soundly beat 6-1 Au burn two weeks ago and is ranked No. 15 by the AP while Auburn is No. 8 makes sense only to Bradshaw. What makes less sense is that 5-2 LSU, which lost to Auburn and Florida, also is ranked ahead of Arkansas at No. 14. Some people can't let go of preconceived notions, but polls aren't supposed to be pre dictors but reflections of what has happened.
Сge=005 Column=004 OK,0028.05ߠ 5. Hurricane woes: Suspending eight players after Saturday night's brawl with Florida Inter national was a step for Miami. Winless FIU was at fault, too, but a national program like Miami should know better. No matter who started it, the Hurricanes were the big brother in this fight. Miami coach Larry Coker said Sunday he has a strong grip on the program. When his players are swinging their helmets at op ponents, that can't be true. 6. Just like FIU: There are six winless teams left: Duke, Tem ple, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Stanford and Florida Inter national. Not wanting to be lumped in a group with Florida International should be an extra motivation for victory. It must have worked for Miami (Ohio) on Sunday, with the RedHawks picking up their first victory in a win over Buffalo. The game was delayed from Saturday by a snowstorm.
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter: [email protected], 216-999-4479
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hey all, its been a while since i posted, certainly haven't upheld my end of the bp poll(i'll try to get back on that)

Congrats on having the computers rank you where you should be....seems to be a rare thing this year. Between Cal over Tenn(Tenn. did win that game right?), Auburn at #4 and Texas at #9(after only losing to the #1 team) I don't have much faith in the system this year.

At this point i am hoping to play ND in the fiesta just for shits and giggles...I fear being paired with Boise State...

anyway, none of that is really all that important, I should be around more but more than anything just wanted to say good luck with the rest of the season and beat the hell outa mich.
 
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High Lonesome;634922; said:
hey all, its been a while since i posted, certainly haven't upheld my end of the bp poll(i'll try to get back on that)

Congrats on having the computers rank you where you should be....seems to be a rare thing this year. Between Cal over Tenn(Tenn. did win that game right?), Auburn at #4 and Texas at #9(after only losing to the #1 team) I don't have much faith in the system this year.

At this point i am hoping to play ND in the fiesta just for shits and giggles...I fear being paired with Boise State...

anyway, none of that is really all that important, I should be around more but more than anything just wanted to say good luck with the rest of the season and beat the hell outa mich.
Click to expand...

Thanks, HL. I thought there could be a tOSU-Texas rematch in the desert, but with the computers not giving the 'horns much love, a lot of teams would need a second loss before that could happen.
 
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High Lonesome said:
hey all, its been a while since i posted, certainly haven't upheld my end of the bp poll(i'll try to get back on that)

Congrats on having the computers rank you where you should be....seems to be a rare thing this year. Between Cal over Tenn(Tenn. did win that game right?), Auburn at #4 and Texas at #9(after only losing to the #1 team) I don't have much faith in the system this year.

At this point i am hoping to play ND in the fiesta just for shits and giggles...I fear being paired with Boise State...

anyway, none of that is really all that important, I should be around more but more than anything just wanted to say good luck with the rest of the season and beat the hell outa mich.
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I would love to see NA play Texas in the bowl. Keep that bowl winless streak alive :biggrin:
 
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Sporting News

BCS tipping its hand after first week
October 15, 2006

Look, this is what Roy Kramer wanted when he dreamed up this BCS contraption. So let 'er rip. ...
Let's get beyond the thought that USC is the same ol' USC. Because obviously, it ain't. That thrilling win over pop-tart Arizona State should leave no doubt. The Trojans will lose to Cal, and likely once more to Oregon, Notre Dame or UCLA.
Don't get too out of sorts over USC's No. 1 ranking by the geek squad. That number is nice for now, but it won't last long.
The Big East can forget about playing in the national title game. Look at the BCS numbers: WVU already is behind one-loss Auburn and will soon be behind one-loss Florida no matter what the 'Ers do the rest of the way.
Louisville is in the same situation. I'm not saying it's right; I'm saying look at the numbers.
Here's my Week 1 scenario:

Unbeaten Ohio State beats unbeaten Michigan on Nov. 18.
USC will lose two games before the end of the regular season.
The Big East is no factor.
If Auburn and Florida win out (and Arkansas loses as an underdog to Tennessee and LSU), the SEC Championship game will decide who plays Ohio State in the national title game.
 
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