2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[DaddyBigBucks]

For Auburn to get to the SEC Championship, they need to win out and they need Arkansas to lose two times:

Arkansas remaining schedule:

Mississippi - probable W
Louisiana-Monroe - Definite W
At South Carolina - Possible L
(7) Tennessee - Possible L
At Mississippi State - Probable W
(14) LSU - Possible L

They get their toughest remaining games at home (Tennessee and LSU). I think they will split those games. That means that the South Carolina game is crucial. Other than that, it will be an huge upset for any of the other teams to beat them.

Auburn's remaining schedule:

Tulane Definite W
At Mississippi Probable W
Arkansas State Definite W
Georgia Probable W
At Alabama Probable W

While the Auburn schedule is soft, that doesn't necessarily help them. If, for instance, the slot for the BCS game comes down to Auburn (say they beat Florida again in the SEC Championship game), one loss Cal, one loss Texas, Unbeaten WVU (or Louisville) - who would you take? Well obviously the undefeated team, but wouldn't those other one loss teams have the better OOC schedule? Of course it will all come down to the computers, because the Human polls have Texas, USC, Tennessee and MIchigan all ahead of Auburn at this time.

If I had to make a guess, I think one of the Big East teams will be in Glendale before the SEC winner.

It is entirely possible that Auburn is shut-out of the SEC championship game and still ends up in Glendale.

Teams that have failed to garner a spot in their conference championship game have played for the NC (and lost) before.

 

[Dryden]

It is entirely possible that Auburn is shut-out of the SEC championship game and still ends up in Glendale.

Teams that have failed to garner a spot in their conference championship game have played for the NC (and lost) before.

Bingo. That's my guess for what happens this year, too. Either Auburn or Tennessee, who both have virtually no shot of playing in the SEC Championship Game, will sneak into the #2 slot and be going to Glendale.

Then all the BCS wonks will bitch about the system, and they'll tweak it again for the 137th time, adding back in the loss/point component system they used to use, which retroactively fixes all the screwed up matchups of the past, but planting the seed for screwing up the title game matchup in 2008.

But don't worry, because they'll "fix" it again then, too.

 

[Mike80]

It is entirely possible that Auburn is shut-out of the SEC championship game and still ends up in Glendale.

Teams that have failed to garner a spot in their conference championship game have played for the NC (and lost) before.

I'm pretty certain you have to win your conference championship to qualify for the BCS Championship.

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I'd thought they had changed the rule that you needed to be the conference champion to qualify. By reading the following passage, neither team could be a conference champion and STILL be BCS 1 and 2 and get into the NC game. What a jacked up system...

"Qualifications for At-Large Bids
There are two at-large spots available in the BCS games. If one or both of the participants in the national championship game are not champions from those conferences whose champions have an annual automatic berth in a BCS game, they are considered at-large teams. Only one team from a conference whose champion has an annual automatic berth in a BCS bowl may be selected as an at-large participant, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked one and two. No more than two teams from any conference may play in the BCS bowl games in any given year.."

http://www.fanblogs.com/bcs_poll/005929.php

 

[Dryden]

I'm pretty certain you have to win your conference championship to qualify for the BCS Championship.

No. Nebraska played Miami for the title in 2001, but didn't even appear in the Big-XII title game (Oklahoma/Colorado). There is no rule preventing that from happening again.

 

[Mike80]

No. Nebraska played Miami for the title in 2001, but didn't even appear in the Big-XII title game (Oklahoma/Colorado). There is no rule preventing that from happening again.

I probably missed it then. When I left for Iraq (early 2004) there was a lot of discussion about having a rule requiring the participants in the BCS National Championship game to be the champion of that conference. This was right after the Oklahoma/LSU/USC debacle. I'm guessing that since it makes perfect sense that's why they didn't enact it.

 

[methomps]

I probably missed it then. When I left for Iraq (early 2004) there was a lot of discussion about having a rule requiring the participants in the BCS National Championship game to be the champion of that conference. This was right after the Oklahoma/LSU/USC debacle. I'm guessing that since it makes perfect sense that's why they didn't enact it.

It sounds like a good rule, but it really isn't. The two best teams in the nation may very well be from the same conference. It doesn't make sense, then, to bar one of them in favor of the #3 team in the country.

 

[Mike80]

It sounds like a good rule, but it really isn't. The two best teams in the nation may very well be from the same conference. It doesn't make sense, then, to bar one of them in favor of the #3 team in the country.

Honestly the one and only thing that makes sense is a playoff, which won't happen in my time.

This is a perfect example. I am of the opinion that the best two teams are in the Big Ten. But only one will play in the BCS Championship game.

I hope that in 2009 or whenever the current BCS TV contract is up, they realize that the time has come for a playoff or at the very LEAST a plus one game.

 

[sandgk]

It sounds like a good rule, but it really isn't. The two best teams in the nation may very well be from the same conference. It doesn't make sense, then, to bar one of them in favor of the #3 team in the country.

On a fair play basis I absolutely agree methomps.

But you know and I know what almighty denomination is ruling the roost here, wealth, and the spreading of the same.

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

Not nessisarily, if say two teams from the Big10 were to both go undefeated and not play each other they could still play for the title... since both would be co-champions.

 

[Mike80]

Not nessisarily, if say two teams from the Big10 were to both go undefeated and not play each other they could still play for the title... since both would be co-champions.

The only conference that can truly happen in is the Big Ten.

With the addition of the 12th game, the Pac10 went ahead and tweaked their scheduling so that each team plays each other.

The loophole is there, but I'd have to say it's not very likely. But that's completely like the BCS to leave a hole like that in plain sight.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

MOREDICH'S NIFTY NINE

1. Ohio State (7-0): If the Buckeyes need a reminder of how somebody could be picked off in an upset, they are playing the right team. Indiana surprised Iowa last week. The Hoosiers won't sneak up on Ohio State.
2. West Virginia (6-0): Mountaineers have catching up to do. They are not winning style points fromr voters, needing meaningless fourth-quarter touchdowns to make final scores appealing.
3. Michigan (7-0): The Wolverines understand the stakes: a Big Ten title, a shot at a national championship and a date with destiny. OK, that's not until they play Ohio State on Nov. 18, but they have to keep winning.
4. USC (6-0): Trojans coach Pete Carroll jokingly said that by the end of the year his young team will be pretty good at close games. It already is, but sooner or later, luck won't go the Trojans' way.
5. Louisville (6-0): Cardinals are getting healthy again, which is bad news for everybody on their schedule.
6. Texas (6-1): Seven undefeated teams left in the country. Longhorns are the best one-loss team around.
7. Notre Dame (5-1): UCLA must win shootout, but Bruins will be shooting blanks.
8. Tennessee (5-1): Quarterback Erik Ainge comes from a basketball family, but he has the Volunteers rolling on the gridiron.
9. Auburn (6-1): Tulane finally provides a break in the tough schedule. The Tigers should enjoy it before returning to SEC play next week.

 

[Steve19]

The new Coaches Poll is out at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

 

[OSU_Buckguy]

that's great. lol. florida, who didn't even play this weekend, switched spots with neutered lame. nd barely beats ucla and drops two spots.

they're still overrated.

 

[Dryden]

The new Coaches Poll is out at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

Interesting ... USC, WVU, and Texas all lost votes to Michigan following wins or byes, though it wasn't significant enough for anyone to actually change spots.

This week:
1. Ohio State (63) 8-0 1,575
2. Southern California 6-0 1,469
3. Michigan 8-0 1,454
4. West Virginia 7-0 1,394
5. Texas 7-1 1,308

Last week:
1. Ohio State (63) 7-0 1,575
2. USC 6-0 1,476
3. Michigan 7-0 1,430
4. West Virginia 6-0 1,411
5. Texas 6-1 1,314

 

[JXC]

Interesting ... USC, WVU, and Texas all lost votes to Michigan following wins or byes, though it wasn't significant enough for anyone to actually change spots.

This week:
1. Ohio State (63) 8-0 1,575
2. Southern California 6-0 1,469
3. Michigan 8-0 1,454
4. West Virginia 7-0 1,394
5. Texas 7-1 1,308

Last week:
1. Ohio State (63) 7-0 1,575
2. USC 6-0 1,476
3. Michigan 7-0 1,430
4. West Virginia 6-0 1,411
5. Texas 6-1 1,314

Same thing happened in the AP poll. And you know...some of it has to do not with how Michigan plays, but how the media is hyping up The Game. Eventually people will just want to vote Ohio State/Michigan 1/2