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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

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Sagarin's are updated through Dec 2nd.
Last week they showed Florida @ 4, Michigan @ 2.
This week? The same. Importance? The assumption of many writers is that for Florida to make a move their best hope is to jump in the computer rankings.
I will try to dig through and get the old ELO_CHESS for Florida and Michigan from 11/27. Right now they are at 98.05 and 99.18 respectively. That might give some indication of the value of Florida's SEC championship victory in oher computer polls, or not, as the case may be.
 
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sandgk;676854; said:
Sagarin's are updated through Dec 2nd.
Last week they showed Florida @ 4, Michigan @ 2.
This week? The same. Importance? The assumption of many writers is that for Florida to make a move their best hope is to jump in the computer rankings.
I will try to dig through and get the old ELO_CHESS for Florida and Michigan from 11/27. Right now they are at 98.05 and 99.18 respectively. That might give some indication of the value of Florida's SEC championship victory in oher computer polls, or not, as the case may be.
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Tellshow and the ESPN BCS guru are both predicting a dead push between UF and scUM in the computers. If thats the case(and Tellshow's pretty accurate) then this is firmly in the hands of the pollsters. If I had to guess I'd say the overall national sentiment after last night will be for UF. The conference champ thing is the trump card imo.
 
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from yahoo, another BCS guru chimes in:


BCS expert Jerry Palm, the publisher of CollegeBCS.com, expects the Gators' victory over Arkansas will push them ahead of Michigan in all six computer rankings. If so, Florida will not need to pass Michigan in the two human polls. It just needs to close the gap enough to edge the Wolverines.
"I expect Florida to lead Michigan in computer average," said Palm. "Worst-case scenario is a tie."
"If UF leads Michigan in computers, they do not have to pass Michigan in the polls at all, just get close enough in point margin for the computer strength to matter."
The question is how close. Last week Michigan led Florida by 86 points in the Harris poll and 40 in the coaches' poll. With USC out, those numbers could move dramatically.
"My expectation is Florida has a 2.0 average and UM 3.0 (in the computers)," Palm said. "If that's right, Florida could be within 57 in the Harris poll and 31 in the coaches' poll (and) pass Michigan for No. 2 overall."
Both of those moves are possible and probably reasonable. Michigan's best hope is that it holds off Florida a bit in the computers, creating a tie. If so, then the polls will determine who is No. 2.
Either way, there is going to be no clear determination until the final announcement.
"It's too close to talk about how close it will be," said Palm.
This could come down to a single vote, or a single computer formula criteria; which is why one school is almost assured to be angry with the system.
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strohs;676930; said:
I doubt Tressel feels the same since he himself has to cast a ballot in this mess
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He was on sportcenter last night and mentioned how he didn't want to vote, because he didn't want to make whatever team we ended up playing mad if he voted for the other team ahead of them.


But yea, I'm sooo sooo glad we're the already locked team.
 
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sandgk;676854; said:
Sagarin's are updated through Dec 2nd.
Last week they showed Florida @ 4, Michigan @ 2.
This week? The same. Importance? The assumption of many writers is that for Florida to make a move their best hope is to jump in the computer rankings.
I will try to dig through and get the old ELO_CHESS for Florida and Michigan from 11/27. Right now they are at 98.05 and 99.18 respectively. That might give some indication of the value of Florida's SEC championship victory in oher computer polls, or not, as the case may be.
Click to expand...


It was Florida #4 96.60 and TSUN #2 99.52 on the 25 November rating.
 
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Jaxbuck;676912; said:
Tellshow and the ESPN BCS guru are both predicting a dead push between UF and scUM in the computers. If thats the case(and Tellshow's pretty accurate) then this is firmly in the hands of the pollsters. If I had to guess I'd say the overall national sentiment after last night will be for UF. The conference champ thing is the trump card imo.
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Overall sentiment of the pollsters - perhaps.
Overall sentiment of the nation - not so much. The ESPN have your say vote showed 54% wanting to see Ohio State retilt vs TSUN. Ohio, WV and most of SEC centric southern states squarely in the anti-rematch clumn.
 
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BearBuck27;676958; said:
I'd imagine they'll be holding the polls for Fox's BCS show tonight.
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the BCS poll, sure, but I'd think USA today would want to release their poll to gain traffic off it. They're their own poll that just happens to be included in the total BCS score and I'd imagine they can do what they want.

But maybe not.

Either way, the USAToday/Coaches poll is usually released around 1, so we'll know here soon enough.
 
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