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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

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Dispatch

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Southern Cal moves to No. 2 in BCS rankings
Monday, November 27, 2006
Ken Gordon
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

It appears the national championship game will have the look of a classic Rose Bowl: Ohio State and Southern California.
As expected, Southern Cal, on the strength of its convincing win Saturday over Notre Dame, vaulted past Michigan and into the No. 2 spot in the latest Bowl Championship Series standings.
Barring an upset by 6-5 UCLA on Saturday, the 10-1 Trojans should be OSU?s opponent in the national title game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
The final pairings will be announced Sunday night.
Michigan has to hope the Bruins pull the upset. It appears No. 4 Florida does not have much chance at making the title game, even with a UCLA upset and a Gators victory over Arkansas in the Southeastern Conference championship game.
OSU and USC have met 21 times, with the Trojans holding a 11-9-1 edge in the series. They met seven times in Rose Bowls between 1955 and 1985.
The teams have played only twice since the 1985 Rose Bowl. USC has won the past five meetings, with OSU?s last win coming in the 1974 Rose Bowl.
The last meeting was a regular-season game in 1990, a 35-26 USC win known as the "Lightning Bowl" because the game was called with 2:36 left because of a severe storm over Ohio Stadium.
OSU (12-0) is aiming for its second national title in five years. The Buckeyes are 4-0 in BCS games.
Because the Rose Bowl will lose both conference tie-in champions to the title game, it will have the first two picks of at-large teams.
It almost certainly would take Michigan with the first choice, and then officials will have to decide whether Notre Dame deserves a rematch with the Wolverines, who beat the Irish 47-21 in September.
If not Notre Dame, likely candidates include Louisiana State or Florida, if the Gators lose in the SEC title game.
Three other bowls have one automatic conference tie-in and one at-large choice.
After the Rose picks, next up is the Sugar Bowl, which must take the SEC winner. Then comes the Orange, which is bound to take the Atlantic Coast Conference winner (Georgia Tech or Wake Forest).
The Fiesta gets the final pick, matching an at-large team with the Big 12 Conference champ (Oklahoma or Nebraska).
Two other teams are guaranteed BCS berths: the Big East champ (Louisville or Rutgers) and Boise State (12-0). Rutgers can clinch the berth with a win at West Virginia this week. Louisville goes with a win over Connecticut and a Rutgers loss.
Under this system, teams ranked as low as No. 22 (Georgia Tech) and No. 20 (Nebraska) have a chance at a BCS berth, and No. 7 Wisconsin is already ruled out because the Big Ten has two teams ranked higher and there is a two-team limit per league.
 
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Dispatch

Monday, November 27, 2006
Ar0180800.gif
 
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SI

November to remember

Following an impressive month, USC vaults to No. 2

Posted: Tuesday November 28, 2006 12:30PM; Updated: Tuesday November 28, 2006 1:21PM

I could prepare an extensive dissertation for you on why I moved USC up to No. 2 this week (just as many of you have flooded my inbox with lengthy arguments and statistics supporting Michigan or Florida), or I could sum it up to you thusly: USC is playing better than the other one-loss teams.
Too simplistic? Let me put it this way: Over the past month, the Trojans have won four games by a combined score of 144-43. One of those foes was Stanford, but the others were 7-5 Oregon, 8-3 Cal and 10-2 Notre Dame. Conversely, in two of its past three games Michigan lost to Ohio State and had to fend off Ball State, while Florida hasn't had a convincing win against a decent opponent since early October.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I am not a computer. And my rankings don't affect the BCS. Therefore, I vote for who I think are the best teams right now. While I don't ignore early-season results, what happened in September can often be irrelevant by the time you get to December. USC isn't the same team that struggled to beat Washington on Oct. 7, just as Florida isn't the same team that routed LSU that same day.
But just in case I needed to justify my rankings with some sort of "body-of-work" argument, I do have my little nugget at my disposal. On CollegeBCS.com, Jerry Palm still calculates the old strength-of-schedule formula (two-thirds opponents' combined record, one-third opponents' opponents' record) the BCS used in its standings from 1999-2003. The current rankings:
No. 1 USC
No. 2 Michigan
NCAA Football Power Rankings Rank LW
Team 1 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
Do you think Troy Smith's eyes lit up when he saw Brady Quinn pull off that 60-yard run against USC? The Buckeyes are going to have a month to game plan for their title-game opponent. If that foe happens to be the Trojans, here's guessing it may include some running plays for Smith.
Next game: Jan. 8 BCS National Championship Game vs. TBA. 2 3 USC Trojans (10-1)
The Trojans' secondary was extremely impressive against Notre Dame. USC did not get huge pressure on Brady Quinn, but the Irish QB repeatedly had to throw it away or take off running because no one was open. Cary Harris and Terrell Thomas both had notable pass break-ups.
Next game: Saturday at UCLA. 3 2 Michigan Wolverines (11-1)
The most entertaining place to spend Saturday might not be the Rose Bowl or the Georgia Dome but on a Michigan player's couch in Ann Arbor as he watches the USC-UCLA game. I'm thinking Mike Hart -- he seems like the type that would go out and buy a UCLA sweatshirt just for the occasion.
Next game: Bowl game TBA. 4 5 Florida Gators (11-1)
Whether or not Florida reaches the national championship game, the Gators have gotten their money's worth from Urban Meyer. In his second season, he led Florida to its first 11-win season in a decade and its first division title since 2000. Was the Ron Zook era really only two years ago?
Next game: Saturday vs. Arkansas. 5 8 Louisville Cardinals (10-1)
Now there's the Brian Brohm we know and love. Finally healed from his midseason thumb injury and looking more comfortable on his surgically repaired knee, Brohm went 21-of-29 for 337 yards and four TDs in Saturday's 48-24 win at Pittsburgh. That follows a solid performance against USF the week before.
Next game: Saturday vs. Connecticut. 6 10 LSU Tigers (10-2)
The play of the weekend may have been Trindon Holliday's 92-yard fourth-quarter kick return against Arkansas. Darren McFadden had just broke an 80-yard touchdown run and momentum seemed to be returning to the Razorbacks when Holliday's explosion put LSU back up by 12.
Next game: Bowl game TBA. 7 9 Wisconsin Badgers (11-1)
Depending on which SEC team the Badgers draw in Orlando -- most likely the Florida-Arkansas loser -- the Capital One Bowl could wind up being a better matchup than several of the BCS games. It will also be a chance for Wisconsin to earn the respect it feels it's been lacking all season.
Next game: Jan. 1 Capital One Bowl vs. TBA. 8 12 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
Credit for Oklahoma's unexpected surge into the Big 12 title game can be heaped on any number of individuals, but how about the entire Sooners defense? After struggling mightily early in the season, Oklahoma has allowed just 13.3 points per game during its seven-game winning streak.
Next game: Saturday vs. Nebraska. 9 4 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)
It's not every day your two tailbacks run for a combined 319 yards -- and you lose. Darren McFadden and Felix Jones are sensational, but Razorbacks coach Houston Nutt never fully solved his quarterback situation. Maybe just have McFadden attempt every pass against Florida?
Next game: Saturday vs. Florida. 10 13 Boise State Broncos (12-0)
Broncos QB Jared Zabransky: "When you lay out a bunch of goals and you actually reach all those goals -- every goal that we wrote down we reached -- it's just an amazing feeling of accomplishment." Now, coach Chris Petersen has added a new goal: Winning the bowl game.
Next game: Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl vs. TBA.
 
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ABJ

BOWLS FOR BOTH -- Southern Miss and Houston will learn their bowl fates shortly after the Conference USA championship Friday. League officials said the winner will automatically advance to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., on Dec. 29. The loser will receive an invitation to the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Ala., on Jan. 7.
ARMED FORCES BOWL -- Tulsa (8-4) accepted a bid to represent Conference USA in the Armed Forces Bowl against Utah (7-5) Dec. 23 on the TCU campus in Fort Worth, Texas.
EMERALD BOWL -- Florida State (6-6) is set to play UCLA (6-5) in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on Dec. 27.
HAWAII BOWL -- Arizona State (7-5) will play No. 24 Hawaii (10-2) in the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24.
HOLIDAY BOWL -- No. 21 California (8-3) will play in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28 in San Diego for the second time in three seasons.
INTERNATIONAL BOWL -- Western Michigan (8-4) has accepted an invitation to play in the inaugural International Bowl, to be held Jan. 6 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto against a Big East opponent.
MOTOR CITY BOWL -- Central Michigan (8-4) accepted a bid to play in the Motor City Bowl, becoming the first Michigan team to participate in the decade-old postseason game in Detroit.
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- New Mexico (6-6) will play San Jose State (7-4) in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 23 at University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M.
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- Rice will make its first bowl appearance since 1961 after accepting a bid to the New Orleans Bowl. The Owls (7-5), will play Troy or Middle Tennessee on Dec. 22.
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL -- East Carolina (7-5, 5-3) accepted a bid to play in the inaugural PapaJohns.com Bowl against a team from the Big East on Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Ala.
POINSETTIA BOWL -- Northern Illinois (7-5) accepted an invitation to play TCU (9-2) in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 19.
SUN BOWL -- Oregon State accepted a bid to play in the Sun Bowl on Dec. 29 in El Paso, Texas. Oregon State (8-4) will face either Missouri or a Big East team.
 
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Dispatch

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
What you should know about OSU?s challengers
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Tony Barnhart
THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION



This year, there?s no debate about who?s No. 1. But with four days to go until the Bowl Championship Series selection show, the argument over who should play Ohio State for the national title is lighting up talk shows and burning up the blogs.
Southern California? Florida? Michigan? None of the above?
Here are a few things you should know about the top No. 2 contenders before you take part in your next debate:
No . 2 USC ( 10-1 )

Why they belong: The Trojans played the toughest nonconference schedule in Division I-A, according to NCAA statistics. They beat No. 9 Arkansas by 36 points, No. 10 Notre Dame by 20 and No. 20 Nebraska by 18. All three of those teams are still in contention for BCS bowl spots.
Why they don?t: Michigan lost to No. 1 Ohio State. Florida lost at No. 11 Auburn. USC lost to unranked Oregon State.
No . 3 Michigan ( 11-1 )

Why they belong: No one put up a better fight against the No. 1 Buckeyes than the Wolverines, who fell 42-39 in Columbus. They also smacked Notre Dame by 26 in South Bend.
Why they don?t: Michigan had its shot at Ohio State and came up short. Besides, the Rose Bowl isn?t too shabby a consolation prize.
No . 4 Florida ( 11-1 )

Why they belong: Counting Saturday?s game with Arkansas, Florida?s opponents have a cumulative record of 81-45. Michigan?s opponents were 77-47, USC?s 75-46. Beat the Razorbacks, and the Gators are 12-1 and SEC champs.
Why they don?t: The Western Carolina laugher aside, Florida hasn?t beaten a Division I-A opponent by more than seven since taking down Louisiana State 23-10 on Oct. 7.
No . 5 LSU ( 10-2 )

Why they belong: The Tigers have won six straight since losing at Florida, a stretch that includes victories at Tennessee and Arkansas. This team has more quality athletes than anybody. If not for a 7-3 loss at Auburn on Sept. 16, which included a questionable officiating call, the Tigers might be sitting at No. 2.
Why they don?t: Blown calls or not, LSU has two losses ? and a two-loss team doesn?t deserve to play for the national title.
No . 6 Louisville ( 11-1 )

Why they belong: If not for Rutgers? miraculous comeback on Nov. 9, Bobby Petrino?s high-powered bunch would be sitting at 11-0. With Brian Brohm running the show, the Cardinals can score a bundle of points on anybody. Why they don?t: A one-loss Florida or a two-loss LSU would likely have a better chance of beating Ohio State.
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OUCH

Miami gets invited to Boise for bowl game
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/30/06

Larry Coker's difficult and final year at Miami will end on the blue turf of Boise.
The Hurricanes accepted an invitation Wednesday to the MPC Computers Bowl, where they'll meet Nevada (8-4) of the Western Athletic Conference on Dec. 31 in Idaho's capital city. It'll be the first meeting between the programs, plus Miami's first appearance in that bowl.
It will also be Coker's 75th and final game at Miami; he was fired last week after a 6-6 regular season, one that dropped his six-year record with the Hurricanes to 59-15 with one national championship. The school retained him for the bowl game, while it conducts a search for his replacement.
"We have a lot of young players, and I think a bowl experience will be very good for them," said Coker, whose team will resume practice in mid-December after finals.
The Hurricanes haven't formally revealed a complete list of who's under consideration to replace Coker, but athletic director Paul Dee confirmed that defensive coordinator Randy Shannon ? who is thought to have the support of Hurricane players ? is a candidate.
Other speculation has centered around Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, a former Miami assistant; former Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez, who has a close relationship with Miami president Donna Shalala; South Florida's Jim Leavitt and, of late, former Alabama coach Mike Shula ? son of Miami Dolphins coaching legend Don Shula.
 
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osugrad21;673908; said:
OUCH

Miami gets invited to Boise for bowl game
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/30/06

Larry Coker's difficult and final year at Miami will end on the blue turf of Boise.
The Hurricanes accepted an invitation Wednesday to the MPC Computers Bowl, where they'll meet Nevada (8-4) of the Western Athletic Conference on Dec. 31 in Idaho's capital city. It'll be the first meeting between the programs, plus Miami's first appearance in that bowl.
It will also be Coker's 75th and final game at Miami; he was fired last week after a 6-6 regular season, one that dropped his six-year record with the Hurricanes to 59-15 with one national championship. The school retained him for the bowl game, while it conducts a search for his replacement.
"We have a lot of young players, and I think a bowl experience will be very good for them," said Coker, whose team will resume practice in mid-December after finals.
The Hurricanes haven't formally revealed a complete list of who's under consideration to replace Coker, but athletic director Paul Dee confirmed that defensive coordinator Randy Shannon ? who is thought to have the support of Hurricane players ? is a candidate.
Other speculation has centered around Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, a former Miami assistant; former Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez, who has a close relationship with Miami president Donna Shalala; South Florida's Jim Leavitt and, of late, former Alabama coach Mike Shula ? son of Miami Dolphins coaching legend Don Shula.
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:slappy:
I hope it's really snowy.
 
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Dispatch

COMMENTARY
Numbers, nostalgia beg for OSU, USC game
Thursday, November 30, 2006

TODD JONES
20061130-Pc-D1-0900.jpg
</IMG>


With snow in the forecast, thinking about the USC Song Girls dancing in the sunshine ?
Oh, sorry. Back to work. Let?s ponder the Southern California football team.
OK, the numbers surrounding USC show that the Trojans, not Michigan or Florida, should play Ohio State for the national title.
USC, 10-1 and No. 2 in the Bowl Championship Series ratings, is expected to earn a Jan. 8 matchup with the Buckeyes if it beats crosstown rival UCLA on Saturday.
The Trojans are facing their 10 th bowl-eligible opponent. They?ve played the toughest schedule in Division I-A, according to NCAA statistics, and defeated four teams ranked in the top 25.
USC whipped Notre Dame, Arkansas and Nebraska (three teams with a combined 29-7 record) by a total of 74 points.
Yes, the Trojans lost to thenunranked Oregon State 33-31 on Oct. 28, but since then they?ve won four straight games by an aggregate score of 144-43. Their defense has allowed just five touchdowns in the past 17 quarters.
Of course, if numbers aren?t enough, think of the juicy story lines related to a showdown between the Trojans and Buckeyes.
You?d have two universities ? one small and private, the other a huge state school ? from different cultures and parts of the country.
The football programs are saturated with tradition: Rose Bowl meetings (seven), consensus national championships (13) since 1936, Heisman Trophy winners (13) and NFL firstround draft picks (130).
Imagine loosey-goosey Pete Carroll ? an Ohio State assistant under Earle Bruce in 1979 ? battling wits against buttondowned Jim Tressel while Hang on Sloopy blares against Fight On.
Who knows, O.J. Simpson might even show up on Traveler, the USC white horse mascot, in search of the real killer.
Ohio State-USC would have an Old West gunfight feel ? appropriate because Marion Morrison, a USC tackle in the 1920s, later became known as John Wayne ? because the teams would be playing for more than the national championship.
The Buckeyes and Trojans would grapple for early claim to the title "Team of the 21 st Century." These have been the two best programs since 2002, the second season at each school for Tressel and Carroll.
Again, as in most things BCS, just check the numbers.
USC is 58-5 in those five seasons, with just two losses (by a total of five points) in its past 46 games. Ohio State is 55-8, with just two losses (by 10 points) in its past 26 games.
The Buckeyes (12-0) are going for their second perfect season under Tressel. Carroll has had one (13-0 in 2004).
Combined, the teams have finished the previous four seasons ranked No. 4 or better in the nation seven times. They?ve have had just one season between them with more than two losses since 2002.
Tressel has won his past four bowl games and Carroll is 3-1, with five of those total postseason wins coming over Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Miami and Iowa.
Ohio State won the 2002 national title. The Trojans were named the BCS national champion in 2004, claimed a share of the 2003 title by finishing No. 1 in the final Associated Press poll, and lost the national championship game last season to Texas 41-38 only because they blew a 12-point lead in the game?s final 6:42.
USC has had the past two Heisman winners, Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, and the 2002 winner in Carson Palmer. Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith is expected to win the Heisman next week.
The past four NFL drafts have featured 31 Buckeyes selected ( eight in the first round) and 25 Trojans picked ( seven first-rounders).
All the numbers, current and in the recent past, are enough to get the heart racing about the first meeting in 16 years between OSU and USC.
And then there?s those USC Song Girls ?
Todd Jones is a sports columnist for The Dispatch. [email protected]
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Miami's fortunate they even got to a bowl game. Coker was obviously riding the coattails of one Butch Davis. I only wish Butch would have had the same effect on my beloved brownies up in Cleveland. Oh well. At least Tressel has proved he's no Coker following up Cooper's recruiting prowess.
:osu:
 
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CPD

OHIO STATE FOOTBALL

<H1 class=red>Layoff can't rattle confident Buckeyes

</H1>

Friday, December 01, 2006 Doug Lesmerises

Plain Dealer Reporter

Columbus- Ohio State gets practices today for the first time since the Buckeyes' 42-39 win over Michigan 13 days ago. And then it's only . . . whew, another 38 days until gameday.
Compared to three hours on the runway and a bus trip from Milwaukee to Chicago the night before a 44-point win, the Buckeyes figure a break long enough to mummify them shouldn't be a problem.
With the Big Ten ending its schedule before any other conference and the national title game pushed back an extra week starting this season, Ohio State is in the midst of a 51-day span between action, the longest layoff possible in college football.
In the 51 days that ended with the regular season finale against the Wolverines on Nov. 18, the Buckeyes played eight games. In the next 51 days, the Buckeyes will play only each other and then for the fifth national title in school history.
"We're not finished, not by a long shot," quarterback Troy Smith said Thursday, tossing aside any worries about the Buckeyes going soft. "Everybody's thirst and hunger was not just through the regular season, it was to have a chance at the national championship. This is the beginning of the end, but it doesn't seem that way to everybody."
So the players, who had 44 days off before their bowl last season and 39 the year before, aren't worried about forgetting the plays or packing on a spare tire. They were off last week for the holiday.
"I like the layoff," receiver Anthony Gonzalez said. "A lot of people think it could maybe be a negative, but I don't think that it is. It just gives us a little bit more time with our families than other teams, and that's always a positive."
Part of the confidence lies in the players' belief in coach Jim Tressel to prepare them for any circumstance. Defensive tackle David Patterson said that was reinforced the Friday before the Northwestern game, when bad weather delayed the Buckeyes' flight and then forced the team to land in Wisconsin, the Buckeyes arriving at their hotel at 11 p.m. They didn't seem bothered in a 54-10 win that kicked off 15 hours later.
"Our coaches do a good job of keeping everybody focused," Patterson said.
The Buckeyes don't yet know where that focus should be aimed. Smith said he'll be watching Saturday when USC meets UCLA, with a Trojans' win cementing a USC-Ohio State showdown in Glendale, Ariz. Smith said he may even pick up on a suggestion to have some teammates over to watch the game with him.
Whether it's USC or Michigan or Florida, bowl practice, as usual, is as much about next year. Extra time in December 2006 should only help in September 2007.
"It's more days of practice for the young kids," Tressel said. "We've got to make sure we approach it the right way because it is a battle, both emotionally and physically. We've got to use the days, the right doses of time off, the right doses of rehab, the right doses of gameplanning and the bonus dose of young kids getting some chances to work."
"I think it's good. It's not professional football. They go to school, they have a lot on their plate. We've evolved to this 12-game thing and year-round workouts and all that. I get more nervous about not enough time off than I do layoffs."
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter:
[email protected], 216-999-4479
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CPD

OK, USC's KO'd, so BCS gives OSU...


Sunday, December 03, 2006 Doug Lesmerises
Plain Dealer Reporter

Columbus- UCLA at least doubled the ratings for tonight's Bowl Championship Series selection show, especially in Michigan and Florida.
Southern Cal's 13-9 upset loss to the Bruins on Saturday threw the national title picture into disarray, and now no one knows which team Ohio State will face in the BCS national championship game Jan. 8.
It will be either SEC champion Florida, which never has played the Buckeyes in football, or Michigan, which hasn't played the Buckeyes in 15 days.
"The voters are going to have a say in this," BCS analyst Jerry Palm said Saturday night as the Gators were wrapping up a 38-28 victory over Arkansas in the SEC title game. "But if Michigan is as far ahead of Florida in the polls this week as they were last week, I don't think the computers will be enough. Florida has to get closer."
Beating a tough Arkansas team while Michigan's season ended two weeks ago might allow the Gators to do that.
This could have been much simpler. Last week, USC was second in the coaches poll, the Harris poll and the computer ratings and completely in control of its own destiny. But the Trojans blew it.
"I'm always asked to speculate on a Friday where we're going, and if I hold my breath and wait until Monday, the questions are totally different because so many different things happen," BCS Commissioner Mike Slive said this week.
The question now is all about a rematch.
Is it deserved for the Wolverines? Is it good for college football? Is it fair that some voters are sure to let their feelings about a rematch influence their vote? In talking about Ohio State's 42-39 win over the Wolverines on Nov. 18, Slive termed the matchup an elimination game for the national title.
Would a rematch of an elimination game, in some sense, be a sign of a BCS failure?
"It could be viewed that way by some, but the reality is, there's no asterisk or no exceptions to the 1-2 determination," Slive said.
So who's the new No. 2?
A 12-1 Florida team with wins over three currently ranked teams, No. 5 LSU, No 8 Arkansas and No. 17 Tennessee, and a 10-point loss to No. 11 Auburn?
Or an 11-1 Michigan team with wins over two currently ranked teams, No. 7 Wisconsin and No. 12 Notre Dame, and a three-point loss to the No. 1 Buckeyes?
If things don't change, the answer is Michigan. The Wolverines were third in both human polls last week while Florida was fourth in both polls. Michigan held a 40-point lead over the Gators in the coaches' poll, which includes 63 voters, and an 86-point lead in the Harris poll, which includes 114 voters. Each poll counts for one-third of the BCS total, and the results are based on a percentage, so every vote counts.
Six computer ratings account for the other third of the BCS, with the highest and lowest computer ratings thrown out for each team. Last week, Michigan was second in three computers, third in one and fourth in two others. Florida was third in two computers and fourth in the other fourth. Beating a highly rated Arkansas team will aid the Gators in the computers, but how much?
Everyone will find out tonight, the BCS controversy surviving to the final hour. Then there will be more than a month for No. 3 to complain.
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter:
[email protected], 216-999-4479
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