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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

osugrad21;668207; said:
? Penn State is in the Outback Bowl, making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time since the 1998 and '99 seasons. The Nittany Lions (8-4) and an SEC team will play Jan. 1 in Tampa, Fla.
Good for PSU and the conference, the extra month of practice for their offense will pay huge dividends during the 2007 season. However, who are they going to play? LSU? Auburn? Tennessee?

They're going to get creamed.
 
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Dryden;668281; said:
Good for PSU and the conference, the extra month of practice for their offense will pay huge dividends during the 2007 season. However, who are they going to play? LSU? Auburn? Tennessee?

They're going to get creamed.

I heard someone on ESPN saying that its possible that we've been over estimating the SEC all year. I'm not really sure how valid that is, but it would be awesome to see PSU beat a SEC team in thier bowl game.
 
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OmahaBeef;668574; said:
I heard someone on ESPN saying that its possible that we've been over estimating the SEC all year. I'm not really sure how valid that is, but it would be awesome to see PSU beat a SEC team in thier bowl game.

It's about time that someone has pointed out that possibility. Look at non-conference match ups. What is the SEC's biggest out of conference win??? <crickets chirping> OK, Ok it is Tennesee over Cal. And that is all folks. Other "big" wins by the SEC: Georgia over Colorado, Auburn over Wash St. All were home games.

Other matchups against top ranked opponents: Vandy waxed by Michigan, Miss St wacked by West Virginia, and Arkansas smoked by USC.

I say until the SEC proves their "supremecy" on the field in the bowls, we should refrain from annointing them the greatest conference in the history of collge football.
 
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It seems to me that the Harris poll is only used for the BCS formula. That's contrary to the AP and Coaches' polls, where people actually look at them and say, "My team has moved up to #9!!!" or "How the hell did Team X jump over my team in the rankings?" No one looks at the Harris poll that way.

So here's my question: do the voters for the Harris poll realize that their only job is to help determine #1 and #2 teams in the BCS? And, if so, will any of them become renegades and vote Michigan #25 or not ranked at all in an attempt to keep a rematch from happening? Or vote Michigan #1, and USC, Florida, and Notre Dame not ranked to help the chances of a rematch? What's keeping them from doing that? Credibility? Does anyone care that Mr. So-and-So is a voter in the Harris poll?
 
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MuckFich06;668607; said:
It's about time that someone has pointed out that possibility. Look at non-conference match ups. What is the SEC's biggest out of conference win??? <crickets chirping> OK, Ok it is Tennesee over Cal. And that is all folks. Other "big" wins by the SEC: Georgia over Colorado, Auburn over Wash St. All were home games.

Other matchups against top ranked opponents: Vandy waxed by Michigan, Miss St wacked by West Virginia, and Arkansas smoked by USC.

I say until the SEC proves their "supremecy" on the field in the bowls, we should refrain from annointing them the greatest conference in the history of collge football.

UGA beat a shitty Colorado team by the skin of their teeth. Trailed the whole game and got a last second TD to beat a winless team at home.

I am fully of the opinion that the SEC has tremendous depth of very good and tough teams this year. They are by far the best conference top to bottom. That said, they have NO exceptional teams...just a bunch of good ones beating the shit out of each other all year.

This is yet another example of why they shouldn't have pre season polls. They had several teams pre season top 10 so all year its just a circle jerk of #3 vs #5 type thing so they don't drop very far when they lose.

PSU is as close as we have this year to an SEC school. Tremendous D, talented skill players on O but bad QB's that make the offense sub par overall. LSU, Auburn and PSU are all very evenly matched. In fact Auburn's D has a serious problem with straight ahead, running, physical offenses. I'd favor PSU over them and say LSU is even.

UT is probably better on paper than PSU but Fulmer is the worst big game coach this side of Cooper. ANY team they play in a Bowl has a shot and Paterno was the master of Bowl game preperation back in the day, he could still probably out game plan fat Phil.

I'd like to see the Arkansas vs Wisky matchup if it happens. You talk about physical...holy shit that game would be brutal.
 
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OSUBuckeye4Life;666589; said:
Herbstreit's latest ballot:

1 Ohio St.
2 Michigan
3 Southern Cal
4 West Virginia
5 Arkansas
6 Notre Dame
7 Florida
8 Louisville
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin
11 LSU
12 Texas
13 Georgia Tech
14 Boston College
15 Auburn
16 California
17 Virginia Tech
18 Tennessee
19 BYU
20 Boise St.
21 Texas A&M
22 Penn St.
23 Clemson
24 Wake Forest
25 Arizona

Link


Wow. No Rutgers in the Top 25.
i hope i don't get reprimanded for this, but from where i'm sitting, Kirk's credibility has been taking some big hits recently... there is a fine line between doing your job and completely selling out and becoming a shill...
 
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this has not been kirk's best season. it started when he picked miami to play notre dame for the national championship. he also picked brady to win the heisman. i don't have an issue at all with his not picking ohio state and not picking troy. that's fine. however, to pick two teams with glaring inadequacies was hard to digest, considering that he's usually spot-on. kirk drank as much of the weis kool-aid as anyone else. i guess that he thought that defensive secondary speed could be created over the winter. perhaps kirk's at his best when his alma mater's not the front runner. at times he gushed too much over the bucks, and at other times he appeared to be making too much of an effort not to look like a buckeye grad.

regardless, he's still an exceptional analyst, especially when you consider his colleagues.
 
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What bothers me about the whole rematch thing is this...

How do we really know scUM and tOSU are the top 2 teams out there? Everyone is saying it, repeating it, and assuming it. It's a constant barrage from every media personality, poster, etc. In reality, its mainly based on style-points. When you think about it, how much OOC play has there really been? tOSU has 1 big win OOC. scUM has 1 big win OOC. As far as I'm aware, the B10 has no major victories over the SEC, the P10, or for that matter, the Big Least. It may just be that we're drinking our own Koolaid. Yea, I hear the bitching about SEC love, but maybe, just maybe, they are that good. Or maybe, just maybe, the P10 is just that good. Same for Big Least (although that seems unlikely).

And no, its not fair to rely too heavily of the logic Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, therefore Team A is better than Team C. This is college football, and we all know how that tends to play out in real life.

The fact of the matter, there is not enough interconference play to allow a rematch to happen. Am I afraid of Michigan, F--- no! They couldn't stop Troy all day, and they won't again in January. But we have no measure of relative conference strength. Not unless you count the polls, which are often embarrassingly wrong. It is grossly unfair to all other teams to rematch 2 teams where the outcome has been clearly established. And it was clearly established.

A rematch is just plain wrong
 
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MuckFich06;668607; said:
It's about time that someone has pointed out that possibility. Look at non-conference match ups. What is the SEC's biggest out of conference win??? <crickets chirping> OK, Ok it is Tennesee over Cal. And that is all folks. Other "big" wins by the SEC: Georgia over Colorado, Auburn over Wash St. All were home games.

Other matchups against top ranked opponents: Vandy waxed by Michigan, Miss St wacked by West Virginia, and Arkansas smoked by USC.

I say until the SEC proves their "supremecy" on the field in the bowls, we should refrain from annointing them the greatest conference in the history of collge football.

Good points about the SEC. They need to start playing some good OOC games away from their own region.

BTW, CBS analyst and former SMU semi-pro player Craig James is the only AP voter who has 3 SEC teams in the top 6!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/extern...ball_rankings/voters.php?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME
 
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Link

Frank Rigas column: Too early to debate the BCS


[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
If anything, the BCMess, er, S, makes for great debate.

For the last few weeks, college football (a sport overrun by the three y's ? hypocrisy, subjectivity and money) has been gripped by gripes over its confounding process of determining who gets to play in the national championship game.

Unbeaten and top-ranked Ohio State has locked up one of the berths. But who deserves to play the Buckeyes is still uncertain, thus, the raging debate.

Some say it should be Michigan. Others say USC, or Florida or Arkansas. Or Notre Dame.

Here's a suggestion: let the season play out. All of the title hopefuls have at least one more game left.

In just another week or so, the BCS' computer will spit out its No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup.

Then we'll really have something to debate.

Reach Frank Rigas at [email protected]
[/FONT]
 
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Cincy

Kickoff: It's Trojans-Buckeyes
...Provided, of course, the Trojans beat Notre Dame today and then crosstown rival UCLA next Saturday

ENQUIRER NEWS SERVICES

1. WE'VE SEEN THIS ALREADY
A Michigan-OSU Big Ten rematch wouldn't be as good as the first one, and the Wolverines would have an advantage. Remember Florida-Florida State 10 years ago? On Nov. 30, 1996, Florida State defeated top-ranked Florida in the third consecutive regular-season game when an Associated Press No. 2 team defeated a then No. 1-ranked opponent. A month later, Florida won a rematch with FSU in the Sugar Bowl that gave the Gators the 1996 national championship.
Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, whose team handed Florida its only loss (27-17) and was beaten soundly at home by Arkansas (27-10), is against a OSU-Michigan sequel.
"I think it would be ridiculous," Tuberville said last week on a conference call with reporters. "Those two teams had their shot, and one of them (Ohio State) proved it was better. Now it's time to let another team have their shot. I think Arkansas or Florida should get that opportunity. It shouldn't even be close."
[
2. YOU KNOW WHO THEY ARE
Under sixth-year head coach Pete Carroll, it's been back to the head of the class during the early part of the 21st century for the school that doesn't put its name on the front of the jersey or its players' names on the back. Carroll's Trojans are 19-0 in November and are in the midst of a 32-game home winning streak. The Trojans have won 54 of their last 57 games, with the losses coming by a total of eight points. Southern Cal (No. 3 in the latest BCS standings) still holds the record with 16 consecutive weeks at No. 1 in the BCS from 2004-05 and 24 straight weeks in one of the top three positions in the standings.
3. BCS EXPERT SAYS BET ON USC
According to Brad Edwards, college football researcher at ESPN: "Don't be fooled by this week's standings; the Wolverines (BCS No. 2) do need some help. Despite what you think you see, USC is still in the driver's seat to finish second behind Ohio State, and there will be no Michigan-OSU rematch without a loss by the Trojans. The Men of Troy are slightly ahead of Michigan in both BCS polls (remember, the AP poll doesn't count) but trail the Wolverines in all but one computer. If USC closes the season by beating Notre Dame and UCLA, it will not only climb ahead of Michigan in most, if not all, of the computers, but it could even jump Ohio State in some. ..."
4. NOT SCARED TO SUCCEED
USC, based in Los Angeles, is not overwhelmed by the glare of the spotlight. There is no NFL team in L.A. SoCal doesn't need one; the Trojans serve as the area's "professional" team. The Trojans have been in the national title game in each of the last three years, winning after the 2003 and 2004 seasons and losing to Texas after the 2005 season.
The Trojans aren't afraid to travel and play anybody. Their nonconference wins this season have included Arkansas and Nebraska. Their lone loss was to Oregon State 33-31.
5. USC JUST RELOADS
The talent just keeps coming for Carroll and crew. The Trojans have landed the nation's top recruiting class for three consecutive years, cleaning up in California and landing prize prospects from across the country.
Ohio State's Troy Smith is almost assured of winning the Heisman Trophy this season, but the Trojans have dominated the award recently. They've won three of the last four, with Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer.
6. FLORIDA STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT
It's possible, according to ESPN's Edwards, that Michigan could overcome any of the other one-loss contenders. The toughest for the Wolverines to crack would be Florida. But if Notre Dame beats USC, Michigan is probably a lock to finish with better overall computer ratings than the Gators, even if Florida beats a 10-2 Arkansas team in the SEC championship game. In that case, Florida would have to move past Michigan in the polls to trump UM in the BCS standings. It could happen, but it's far from a sure thing.
Arkansas, No. 6 in the BCS standings, saw its slim chances evaporate Friday, with a 31-26 loss to LSU.
Florida coach Urban Meyer says Southern Cal and Florida are the logical choices to play Ohio State in Arizona on Jan. 8, if they win out.
"You can make the case for Southern Cal because of the schedule they have played and the fact they beat Arkansas," Meyer said on an SEC conference call early this week. "You can make the case for Florida in that our only loss was on the road in a hostile environment (Auburn). When you look at that, those are the schools that should be considered if they win their last two games."
Meyer said he won't be angry if Southern Cal gets the BCS nod over the Gators. We will see Dec. 3.
OUR SOUTHERN CAL- NOTRE DAME PREDICTION
USC 35, Notre Dame 28: With Matt Leinart gone, John David Booty has taken over at quarterback for the Trojans. He should pick apart the ND secondary.
/QUOTE]
 
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