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Week 11 CFP Rankings with Context

Some more context....

With sacks removed (as they should be, but are not in CFB), Indiana actually rushed 36 times for 179 yards, which makes the Buckeyes' numbers even worse.

But some more context....

Here is the length of every rush by Indiana: -2; -2; -1; -1; -1; 0; 0; 1; 1; 1; 2; 2; 2; 2; 3; 3; 3; 3; 3; 4; 4; 4; 4; 4; 4; 5; 6; 6; 7; 7; 8; 10; 11; 16; 16; 44

Factor out the clear anomaly (the 44-yard run on a trick play to begin the 3rd quarter), and the Buckeye defense gave up 135 yards on 35 carries, which isn't so bad.

Now factor out the QB runs from Dexter Williams II, the Hoosiers' reserve QB for whom the defense did not game plan: -1; 2; 3; 4; 4; 4; 5; 7; 7; 8; 16; 16

So the Buckeye defense allowed 23 carries for 60 yards on "traditional" runs, with 16 of those 23 runs resulting in a "win" for the defense (3 yards or less allowed): -2; -2; -1; -1; 0; 0; 1; 1; 1; 2; 2; 2; 3; 3; 3; 3; 4; 4; 4; 6; 6; 10; 11

The Buckeyes clearly have problems containing QBs who can run, and they are still susceptible to the occasional trick play, but it's not like the defense is getting consistently gashed up the middle like last year.

I miss GPAs
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2024 MO TE Jaden Reddell (Georgia Verbal)

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  • Four-star 2024 tight end target Jaden Reddell: “I had an amazing time at Ohio State, the environment was amazing. Loved talking to all the coaches they were all caring and easy to talk to. I loved the place can’t wait to go back.”
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...owing-the-buckeyes-56-14-victory-over-indiana
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Rivals: Ohio State vs. Michigan (New documentary)

It’s a novel approach to telling the story. They take the angle of examining the science behind rivalry and judge it by a number of metrics. It’s got a lot of the same characters as the HBO Sports doc The Rialry, shot in 2006 and released in 2007. So this has an updated history with Urban at OSU and RichRod, Hoke, and Harbaugh at Michigan. There’s no Spielman, but they examine the Boren family and how Michigan legacy Justin transferred from UM to OSU. Justin, Zach, and their parents are in it. No mention of Jacoby. I don’t know why that is.

I thought it was pretty good. If you didn’t like it, I don’t know what you were looking for. It’s fun and more lighthearted than The Rivalry which I still watch every year the week before The Game. I’ll watch this again.

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2018 Torrents - Ohio State vs Oregon State

Hi! Can anyone please reseed these 2018 games? I'm missing all but the B10 championship. I would greatly appreciate it!

I've been a lurker here for years, but didn't get into torrenting until a couple of years ago. I want to build a "canonical" OSU football collection. I'm seeding all of buckdubbs work from 2019 onward, but i'm missing 2018 and before (except 2014). I have a home server where I can seed this collection for years. Feel free to dm me if you are feeling generous and wish to discuss. I've got several of the "season packs" that I've found combing the forum threads idling in my bittorrent client if you happen to have them available. Thanks!

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  • 2018 Game 1 - Ohio State vs Oregon State - September 1 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
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tOSU @ Northwestern, Sat Nov 5, 12pm, ABC

Thoughts and observations before we move on to the Indinia game:

The rushing offense had fans pulling hairs out again, and understandably so. But if one just watch the box score instead of the game, it was hardly a bad day for the run game in the office:
Team O
Rushing 207
Rushing Attempts 35
Yards per rush 5.9
That was a better ypc average than TTUN did against Butgers:
Team M
Rushing 282
Rushing Attempts 53
Yards per rush 5.3
I also charted all tOSU runs from the NW game, and the rolling 3-play ypc:
upload_2022-11-12_5-3-48.png

tOSU had bad stretch in the 1Q (culminated in the failed 4th-and-1 rush), but actually recovered or adjusted fairly well afterwards; their rolling 3-play ypc never dropped below the critical 3.5 line until the final drive when they just couldn't wait to get out of Evanston. (If a team is averaging more than 3.5 ypc consistently, it can keep drives alive by rushing exclusively ... without risking it on 4th.) IMO the bad stretch in the 1Q skewed our perception of the rush O adversely.

However, we do have a short yardage problem (dating back to summer camp, or even laster year). Remember this nugget from August?

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All the short yardage runs from the NW game (any down, distance < 3):
perioddowndistanceyardsGainedathleteName
1413Miyan Williams
1310Miyan Williams
1310Miyan Williams
1410Miyan Williams
2332Miyan Williams
24116C.J. Stroud
33327Miyan Williams
4222Miyan Williams
4326Miyan Williams
That was a conversion rate of 5/9, or 55%. Definitely needs more work. If we count consecutive 3rd & 4th down runs as 1 data point, the conversion rate looks a little better at 5/7, or 71%.

For reference, I found an article charting average 3rd down conversion rate based on distance from Covid-shortened 2020 season:
league_averages.png


Now regarding the rush defense, NW gained 200+ yards, but scored only 7 points (61 rush yards on NW's only TD drive in the 1H).

In general, tOSU played bend-don't-break defense. NW would break occasional big runs, especially early in drives, but never had sustained success. This can be visualized in the following chart. NW's run game was very herky-jerky, every spike (big run from NW to start a drive) was followed by a trough below the critical 3-play 3.5 ypc mark (consecutive run stops by tOSU to kill a drive):
upload_2022-11-12_5-25-35.png

The spike-and-plunge pattern actually repeated itself throughout the game, making one wonder whether this was by design from Knowles? Nobody likes to give up yards, but it was a much better alternative than giving up points, especially in an extreme weather game where scoring was a premium. The way to lose a game to an inferior opponent in a low scoring affair is to give up fluky or "cheap" big-play touchdowns. So bend-don't-break would make sense here.

Or, I have another theory that I didn't bother to verify. Was the pattern a result of the DL substitutions? i.e. 1st string DL takes a break, big run from NW; 1st string DL comes back, put out fire. Probably too much work for a game against NW, but if any of you managed to chart the players on the field for each defensive play, this would be an interesting point to look for.
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CFP - But With Context

Now I see it. .3 jump is pretty big for UGA. They did seem to do most of their damage in the passing game too as well as QB runs which are as much a part of the passing game as it is the running game imo. Let's see where we land after a half a hundred on Indiana this week.

With DSA, you can’t move up as much by beating the Indiana’s of the world as you can by beating Tennessee by several scores.
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Brooklyn Nets (official thread)

Nike relationship with Kyrie Irving likely over, Phil Knight says

The relationship between Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving and Nike is likely severed for good, the shoe giant's co-founder told CNBC.

"I would doubt that we go back," co-founder Phil Knight said in an interview that aired Thursday. "But I don't know for sure."

Nike announced last Friday that it has "suspended" its relationship with Irving and canceled its plans to release his next signature shoe, part of the massive fallout that followed his tweeting a link to a film containing antisemitic material.

The Nets also suspended Irving for at least five games; he has missed four already.

Irving signed with Nike in 2011 and has had a signature line of shoes since 2014, with his annual endorsement deal believed to be worth at least $11 million.

"Kyrie stepped over the line," Knight said. "It's kind of that simple. He made some statements that we just can't abide by and that's why we ended the relationship. And I was fine with that."

Entire article: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/34994728/nike-relationship-kyrie-irving-likely-phil-knight-says

OK, he's already financially set for life and doesn't actually need the money; but still $11M a year is a good chunk of change. He does have a K.A.I. Family Foundation that supports several charities that could undoubtedly do a lot of good with the extra $11M a year.
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LGHL Play Like a Girl podcast: Justin Fields is finally figuring it out

Play Like a Girl podcast: Justin Fields is finally figuring it out
Meredith Hein
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Alexis also shares her thoughts on if the Eagles could win it all, plus a recap of this weekend’s best games.

On LGHL’s Play Like a Girl podcast, Alexis and Meredith talk everything from Ohio State sports to advocacy for women in sports and all the happenings in between.

Check out the podcast below, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts:


Welcome back to the Play Like a Girl podcast! This week, Alexis and Meredith caught up on NFL news, including an update on Alexis’ undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and her thoughts on completing the season undefeated, making it to the Super Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl.

Plus, the pair talk about our resident favorite quarterback Justin Fields’ record-breaking rushing performance Sunday — and how another Ohio State quarterback performed on the ground in Chicago Saturday.

They also review how Team Cat did vs. Team Dog this week and talk about what we expect from Ohio State this weekend against Indiana. Hopefully more offense.


Contact Alexis Chassen
Twitter: @lovelybuckeye

Contact Meredith Hein
Twitter: @MeredithHein

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LGHL MC&J: TCU will try and stay undefeated when they take on Texas on Saturday

MC&J: TCU will try and stay undefeated when they take on Texas on Saturday
Brett Ludwiczak
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

Plus, picks for six other interesting games outside the Big Ten on Saturday.

Last week ATS: 11-3 (4-3 B1G, 7-0 National)

Season ATS: 75-75-3 (35-39-1 B1G, 40-35-2 National)

If only I could make picks every week like I did last week. Thanks to the huge week, our record is back to even with a month of games left to go, as well as bowl season.

National games:


(All lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook.)

No. 7 LSU (-3.5) v. Arkansas - 12:00 p.m. - ESPN

LSU enters this matchup coming off the emotional win over Alabama last week. After a tough start to the season, Jayden Daniels has become more comfortable in the LSU offense. Not only has Daniels recorded 24 total touchdowns this year, the Arizona State transfer has done a great job at limiting mistakes, only throwing one interception.

After starting the season with a ton of promise, Arkansas has fallen apart, losing four of their last six games The most recent loss came last week when they were defeated in Fayetteville by Liberty. KJ Jefferson has the ability to match Daniels on the ground and through the air, the Arkansas quarterback just isn’t getting much help.

Normally I’d say this game is a textbook scenario to take the Razorbacks. While the idea of taking an unranked home underdog hosting a ranked team coming off a huge win sounds great, this LSU team feels a little different. The Tigers look like they are buying into Brian Kelly’s coaching. Arkansas could make things interesting for a while, I just think LSU ends up winning this game by 7-10 points.

LSU 31, Arkansas 21


Louisville v. No. 10 Clemson (-7) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN

Are we really sure that Clemson is that much better of a team than Louisville right now? The Cardinals have found a bit of a rhythm, winning their last four games. Malik Cunningham isn’t going to wow anybody with his passing, but he can keep opponents off balance with his ability to run the football. The Louisville offense is pretty balanced, throwing for 221 yards per game, while running for 202 yards per contest.

Clemson is in a lot of trouble right now. The Tigers looked listless in a 35-14 loss to Notre Dame last week. Even though the Tigers are still in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship Game, it is obvious they had a bigger goal for this season. It’ll be interesting to see if Dabo Swinney sticks with D.J. Uiagalelei, or turns to freshman quarterback Cade Klubnik.

Some may think the loss to the Fighting Irish might wake the Tigers up. I’m not so sure since Clemson has a number of problems. The Tigers don’t have playmakers on either side of the football that they have had in the past. A dynamic quarterback like Cunningham could cause fits for the Tigers, who are already dealing with confidence issues.

Louisville 28, Clemson 24


No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) v. No. 11 Ole Miss - 3:30 p.m. - CBS

We have all seen this snuff film before. Alabama drops a game and Sabanbot2000 has his team ready to murder in their next game. The Crimson Tide obviously don’t have the receivers that we have seen from them over the last few years. What they do have is Bryce Young. Even though the quarterback isn’t in the Heisman Trophy conversation after winning last year, he is still one of the most dangerous players in college football.

Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country at running the football. Unfortunately for the Rebels, Alabama doesn’t give up much on the ground, with opponents averaging 104 yards per game rushing against the Crimson Tide. If Alabama is able to slow down Quinshon Judkins, that puts more pressure on Jaxson Dart, who has thrown seven interceptions this year.

Even though Ole Miss has just one loss this year, they haven’t really played anyone aside from LSU. I’m not convinced the Rebels are ready to win, or even keep a game like this close. The Crimson Tide keep themselves in position in the SEC West in case LSU falters down the stretch. Alabama wins their six straight against the Rebels by at least 15 points.

Alabama 45, Ole Miss 23


No. 22 UCF v. No. 17 Tulane (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN2

If at the beginning of the year you told me I’d be writing about this game in November, I would have thought you were crazy. Saturday’s contest in New Orleans will go a long way at determining the New Year’s Six Group of Five representative.

UCF has an offense that is averaging over 500 yards per game. What we don’t know is who is going to be taking the snaps for the Knights. Last week, John Rhys Plumlee missed the 35-28 win over Memphis with a concussion. In Plumlee’s place, Mikey Keene threw for 219 yards and three scores, while running back RJ Harvey rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown.

Tulane does a lot of little things well. The Green Wave are allowing just over 300 yards per game this year, while scoring 33 points. I’m just not convinced this is a good matchup for them. UCF has a lot of tough wins over the last few years, while Tulane hasn’t been tested all that much. I feel like Plumlee will be back, which makes things even tougher for the Green Wave in this game.

UCF 34, Tulane 30


No. 1 Georgia (-16) v. Mississippi State - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN

Under Mike Leach, Mississippi State seems to make a name for themselves by putting up a bunch of points against bad teams, and then folding like a cheap tent against good team. Hell, Leach was even folding chairs himself on the sidelines because he didn’t think his wide receivers deserved to sit in them.


Last week: Mike Leach said last week he was worried his WRs kids would have T-Rex arms because they sucked so bad at catching.

Tonight: Leach throws all his WR's chairs on the ground b/c they don't deserve to sit. (h/t @JonathanFlippo) pic.twitter.com/DlhVnr0ZPR

— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) November 6, 2022

Aside from a road game against Missouri last month, Georgia hasn’t really been tested this year. The Bulldogs destroyed Oregon in the opener, and in the last two weeks they’ve easily handled Florida and Tennessee. Even though Georgia lost a lot of the stars from last year’s title team to the NFL, Stetson Bennett is still in Athens, running an offense that doesn’t make many mistakes.

While there will be plenty of cowbells ringing in Starkville, Georgia is too good to be effected by the road trip and the Mississippi State fans. As we saw last week, Kirby Smart’s team can shut down the pass. It’s not like Mike Leach’s squad can hurt you any other way when you take away their air attack.

Georgia 38, Mississippi State 14


No. 25 Washington v. No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) - 7:00 p.m. - FOX

After dropping games to UCLA and Arizona State, Washington has rebounded with wins in their last three games. The victories might have not been runaways, with the Huskies winning the games against Arizona, Cal, and Oregon State by a combined 20 points, but wins are wins. Amazingly, last week against the Beavers saw Michael Penix Jr. fail to throw for at least 300 yards in a game for the first time this season. Penix finished with 298 yards passing in the win.

If you take away the 49-3 loss to Georgia in the opener, and there is no way the Ducks would be outside the top-four in the CFP rankings. Oregon has scored at least 40 points in each of the eight games following the drubbing by the Bulldogs. With four total touchdowns last week against Colorado, Bo Nix now has 35 scores on the season.

Oregon has largely dominated this series of late, winning 15 of the last 17 meetings with their neighbors to the north. The only two Washington wins during that span came in 2016 and 2017. I feel like the Ducks are going to earn another win on Saturday night, I’m just not sure it will be by two touchdowns. The last three games between the rivals have been decided by a combined 17 points. Washington has the firepower to at least keep the Ducks from running away with the game.

Oregon 41, Washington 31


No. 4 TCU v. No. 18 Texas (-7) - 7:30 p.m. - ABC

Honestly, I’m not even sure why they are playing this game. All I’m hearing is how it is a lock that Texas is going to win, and the College Football Playoff committee is going to be so relieved when the Longhorns hand the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season. I must have missed where Texas became such a reliable team.

Not that I don’t get why people are already burying TCU. The Horned Frogs have been playing with fire for the last month, with all five of their wins coming by 10 points or less. In most of those games, TCU was trailing in the second half. While some might knock the Horned Frogs for needing so long to get things together in games, I actually credit them for never giving up.

Texas certainly is a different team with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Let’s not kid ourselves though, Bijan Robinson is what makes the Longhorn offense tick. Robinson has 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. Even with Robinson and Ewers, Texas still has to work way too hard to win games. The Longhorns almost lost to Iowa State and Kansas State, while dropping an extremely winnable game against Oklahoma State.

I know Austin is going to be rocking on Saturday. It’s not anything TCU can’t handle, though. It just seems like everybody and their mom is on the Longhorns in this game, which makes it hard to pass up taking the touchdown with the Horned Frogs against a Texas team that loves making a meal out of everything they do.

TCU 37, Texas 34

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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