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Google No average home finale for Ohio State Buckeyes - Dayton Daily News

No average home finale for Ohio State Buckeyes - Dayton Daily News
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


No average home finale for Ohio State Buckeyes
Dayton Daily News
A player Meyer called “one of the best football players I've been around” committed before Meyer became coach of the Buckeyes in November 2011, becoming part of roughly a dozen players who gave or maintained commitments to the program through the ...
Sources: Baseball's 21-year run of labor peace could be in jeopardyFOXSports.com

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Google The Wake-Up Call: Buckeyes may not see John O'Korn, Ohio State owes one to scout team and...

The Wake-Up Call: Buckeyes may not see John O'Korn, Ohio State owes one to scout team and more - Landof10.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


The Wake-Up Call: Buckeyes may not see John O'Korn, Ohio State owes one to scout team and more
Landof10.com
We hope you'll start your day with us here at Landof10.com as we work to prepare you for everything that you need to know — Monday through Friday — around the world of Ohio State sports. Whether it's football, basketball, wrestling, hockey, baseball ...
Michigan QB John O'Korn visits Bo Schembechler's graveESPN (blog)

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LGHL Ohio State vs. Michigan 2016: Game preview, prediction, and 6 things to know

Ohio State vs. Michigan 2016: Game preview, prediction, and 6 things to know
Chuck McKeever
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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This year’s edition of The Game is the biggest since 2006.

In this, the golden era of the #take, there’s a tendency to overrate sports and what they mean. Players get likened to soldiers; games, to battles; rivalries often based on nothing more substantive than geography devolve into the ugliest sort of personal conduct imaginable.

But there’s another side to all this, the side that massively underrates what sports are, or perhaps what sports can be, when circumstances allow. Sports can be beautiful. They can be haunting. Occasionally, oh so occasionally, they can be transcendent.

This hints at the unsolvable contradictions that underlie football, that perfect paragon of American sports: a game that regularly features supernatural feats of grace and strength is also a grist mill that takes years of life away from those who play it at the highest levels. A game of extreme and incalculable violence is also one that tries to legislate out certain types of force but fails wholly to acknowledge others. Fame and glory and suffering and pain—on and off the field—are inextricably wrapped in each other in football, for good and for ill.

It’s fitting, then, that so much of this college football season—hurt and anguish and surprise and utter, transformative joy—will hinge on what will come on the regular season’s final Saturday. You’d be hard-put to script a better drama than what has unfolded in the Football Bowl Subdivision in 2016; for two teams in particular, a year’s hopes and dreams and visions of greatness will come down to three or so hours on the cold ground of Columbus, Ohio.

It had to be this way, didn’t it? These teams, these coaches, this crazy season? For all the drama of the last major iteration of the Ohio State-Michigan coaching rivalry, Tressel v. Carr always felt a bit like a pair of gentlemen playing chess. Let no one accuse them of being dispassionate; on the contrary, I suspect that there is little that either cared about more in those years than beating the other. But through the lens of history—and boy, do we relegate things to the past quicker than ever these days—there’s something that feels...quaint about that series of games. Football today doesn’t look like it did in 2002 or 2006. Hell, it doesn’t even look like it did in 2013.

Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh. A former madman, slightly reformed (or at least convincing us of as much) in the interests of his health; across the field, an unquestioned madman burning in the phoenix flame of his program’s rebirth. College football’s biggest regular-season stage paving the way for its biggest post-season stage.

SEC football might “just mean more,” but this game—The Game—means most.

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Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
This trendy fall look brought to you by 42-13.
Ohio State’s advantages


Late-game defensive play. All season, the Buckeyes have opened games sloppy on defense and, for the most part, finished them strong. Look no further than Ohio State’s quarter-by-quarter defensive S&P+ rankings for proof:

1st quarter: 27th

2nd quarter: 7th

3rd quarter: 2nd

4th quarter: 1st

If this game comes down to the wire—and, really, is there any other way for it to go?—there’s a strong body of evidence to suggest that the Buckeyes can slam the door shut on any late drives that the Wolverines might need to put together. This is what happens when your defensive rotation is so deep that your third and fourth corners and defensive ends routinely make big plays: you can keep everyone fresh for the game’s final minutes.

Michigan, meanwhile, is at its offensive worst in the fourth quarter; in that period of play, they rank just 37th nationally in offensive production. With Wilton Speight’s injury still looming large over Jim Harbaugh’s team, this isn’t great news for the Maize and Blue.

Curtis Samuel. College football’s best Swiss army knife suits up in Scarlet and Gray, despite what you may have heard about a certain do-it-all Wolverine (more on him in a minute). Curtis Samuel, aka Brooklyn’s Finest, is the only player to rack up more than 700 receiving and 600 rushing yards in FBS play this season. He’s accounted for 14 total touchdowns in 11 games. At his best, he’s nigh-unguardable.

The problem for the Buckeyes is that they still have to get him the ball against the country’s No. 1 defense. Samuel’s touches have waxed and waned to a huge degree all year; it feels like he’s either got the ball in his hands every play or he’s ignored completely. Ohio State will not win this game without a huge game from Samuel, the kind of game he played against Maryland. If Samuel does eat, the Wolverines might be in Hoke-sized trouble.

Act like you’ve been there before. No player on the Ohio State roster has ever lost to Michigan. The Buckeyes have won four straight against the Wolverines under Urban Meyer’s tutelage, with more than a fighting chance to rack up a fifth straight victory in the sport’s biggest rivalry game.

This team’s seniors have sweated out a close one before—who could forget the 42-41 thriller in 2013, saved by a Tyvis Powell interception on a two-point conversion?—but the last two seasons’ contests haven’t been particularly close. This crop of Buckeye players, and the coach that will lead them onto the field in Columbus, know what it means to beat Michigan. There are no demons to conquer here, only a mantle of greatness to take up.

Michigan’s advantages


Pass defense. The Buckeyes have struggled to stay consistent through the air this season, and that’s worrisome, given the defensive backs they’ll be lining up against on Saturday. By S&P+, Michigan has the nation’s best pass defense; they’ve hovered at or near the top all year. Teams have not been able to solve the puzzle of the Wolverine secondary yet in 2016, and the way J.T. Barrett is playing, the odds of Ohio State being the first team to shred them through the air seem slim.

The Wolverines have allowed so few receptions this season that you have to go 12 names down the list of the team’s top tacklers to find a true cornerback. They boast a punishing safety tandem in Dymonte Thomas and Delano Hill, a pair who are both capable of stout run support and help over the top on pass plays. Noah Brown, Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, and the rest of the Buckeye pass-catchers are going to have their hands full trying to get separation against anyone in the Wolverine secondary.

Jabrill Peppers. Peppers’ actual statistics this season aren’t eye-popping—his Heisman campaign seems based more on his novelty than his production—but the sheer amount of different things he can do on the football field is insane. The closest Buckeye analogue in recent memory was WR/PR/KR/DB Chris Gamble, and even he falls a few positions short of the categories on Peppers’ résumé this season.

The Ohio State-Michigan game is one of the most reliable kingmakers in college football. Peppers’ talents are ridiculous, and this just feels like the kind of game that he could single-handedly break wide open. A backbreaking return TD? A wildcat scramble for six? An interception that goes to the house? There are so many ways that a machine like Peppers can hurt a team.

Run defense. If you were hoping for a balm to ease the sting of reading about Michigan’s No. 1 pass defense, you’re in the wrong section. The Wolverines’ run-stopping is just as scary. Ohio State’s No. 2 rushing offense will be tasked with finding holes in Michigan’s No. 2 rushing defense, and those haven’t been easy to come by for anyone this season.

Even if Mike Weber, J.T. Barrett, and Curtis Samuel make it past the stout Michigan front four, they’ll be hard-pressed to gain ground in the second level. Linebackers Ben Gedeon, Jabrill Peppers, and Mike McCray haven’t let a whole lot past them in 2016. That could change on Saturday, given the combined 2,513 yards and 23 TDs those three Buckeye rushers have fought for through 11 games, but it’s hard to be optimistic.

F/+ prediction


Score: Ohio State 22.6, Michigan 25.1

Win probability: Michigan 56%

The advanced stats like the Wolverines by 2.5 points on Saturday. Vegas disagrees, predicting the Buckeyes to win by a touchdown. These are hardly wide margins to play with, but as our friends over at the Solid Verbal are fond of reminding us, you have to throw out the records in any rivalry game. This one’s no exception.

Ohio State has worn many hats in 2016. The Buckeyes have been, in turns, cheeky upstarts, plodding bores, underachievers, offensive juggernauts, a circus act. It’s impossible to know which version of the Scarlet and Gray will take the field in Columbus this weekend with so much to play for. All that is promised is a hell of a game, another insane chapter in this storied rivalry.

Go Bucks. Beat Michigan.


For the next few months, we are creating #Strangewiches, unexpectedly delicious sandwiches that embody the spirit and culture of your favorite college town that you can't find on a menu anywhere! For THE Ohio State University, our friends at SB Nation and Eater helped select the best ingredients to create the BEST, and most strange, #Strangewich for your tailgate in Columbus. Ingredients below!

Ohio State [Not so Sloppy Joe: swiss cheese, ground beef, barbecue sauce, worcestershire sauce, mayo, pumpernickel bread]

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LGHL 4-star TE adds name to list of recruits headed to Ohio State this Saturday.

4-star TE adds name to list of recruits headed to Ohio State this Saturday.
Austin Kemp
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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Also, a potential WR at the next level will be coming to see the Buckeyes, too

According to reports, Mustapha Muhammad (Missouri City, TX /Ridge Point) will be in Columbus on Saturday for the Michigan-Ohio State game. Muhammad, a tight end prospect, is rated as a four-star and the number for tight end in his class. Muhammad checks in at 6-foot-5 and nearly 240 pounds. He’s a matchup nightmare as he’s too fast for linebackers and presents a huge size disadvantage for defensive backs. Muhammad is a 2018 prospect and holds offers from 30 programs.

As seen on 247sports.com, Tim Beck and Ed Warinner are stated to have taken the lead in recruiting Muhammad. Though Ohio State is making a push for him, it looks as if Texas A&M is the favorite right now – followed by Clemson. Still, a good visit this weekend could flip the momentum into Ohio State’s favor as the Buckeyes have been extremely successful recruiting the state of Texas over the last several years. Muhammad is a sure-fire star at the next level and would be a huge pick up for the Buckeyes. Muhammad is a top 100 prospect according to 247Sports, coming in at No. 94.


It is a definite now, this top #Buckeye target will be in Ohio Stadium for the #OhioState - Michigan game (VIP) https://t.co/VW4hr31rO4

— Bill Kurelic (@Bill_Kurelic) November 22, 2016

Class of 2017 athlete Markquese Bell (Bridgeton, NJ / Bridgeton) will be in Columbus on Saturday as well. Bell, a likely wide receiver at the next level holds 19 offers and is rated as the No. 180 player in the country, according to 247Sports. In most classes, Bell is an absolute take for the Buckeyes, but with limited spots in 2017, it could leave Bell looking out.

Still, Ohio State will chase him because there is likely to be a couple spots open when all things are said and done. If the Buckeyes choose to pursue hard, it looks as if Rutgers and Michigan will be the top opponents. The New Jersey prospect is rated as the third best player in the state and comes it at 6-foot-3 and nearly 200 pounds.

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Google Helwagen Chat: Sorting through the B1G, CFB Playoff scenarios - 247Sports

Helwagen Chat: Sorting through the B1G, CFB Playoff scenarios - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Helwagen Chat: Sorting through the B1G, CFB Playoff scenarios
247Sports
Agree on Butt, he's hurt Buckeyes quite a bit. So did Chesson, I believe last year. We'll see how De'Veon Smith does vs. OSU run defense, although LJ Scott showed you there are some holes in there. foxr2001: Steve, how about providing us a unit for ...

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Google No average home finale for Ohio State Buckeyes - Springfield News Sun

No average home finale for Ohio State Buckeyes - Springfield News Sun
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


No average home finale for Ohio State Buckeyes
Springfield News Sun
A player Meyer called “one of the best football players I've been around” committed before Meyer became coach of the Buckeyes in November 2011, becoming part of roughly a dozen players who gave or maintained commitments to the program through the ...
Sources: Baseball's 21-year run of labor peace could be in jeopardyFOXSports.com

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Google All things even, committee says Buckeyes better than PSU - Altoona Mirror

All things even, committee says Buckeyes better than PSU - Altoona Mirror
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


All things even, committee says Buckeyes better than PSU
Altoona Mirror
But Ohio State already beat Wisconsin, on the road no less, so if the committee thinks there's a big gap between the Buckeyes and Lions now, that's not likely to change. Unless, perhaps, if PSU puts a 59-0 kind of whooping on Wisconsin, the way Ohio ...

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Google Ohio State football | Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankings - Columbus Dispatch

Ohio State football | Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankings - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football | Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankings
Columbus Dispatch
Ohio State (10-1) narrowly escaped an upset bid last week by Michigan State (3-8) in East Lansing, 17-16. Michigan also struggled to beat Indiana 20-10. Not since top-ranked Ohio State faced No. 2 Michigan in 2006 have the Buckeyes and Wolverines had ...
Michigan vs. Ohio State 2016: Wolverines try to end Buckeyes' streak in rivalry gameUPI.com
The power of JT Barrett's voiceESPN
What if Michigan wiped away the O's for this Buckeyes clash? Doug Lesmerisescleveland.com
Chronicle Telegram -Landof10.com
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Google Dotting the 'Eyes: Cleaning up the Ohio State visitor list, 2019 running back loves Zeke...

Dotting the 'Eyes: Cleaning up the Ohio State visitor list, 2019 running back loves Zeke and more - Landof10.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Dotting the 'Eyes: Cleaning up the Ohio State visitor list, 2019 running back loves Zeke and more
Landof10.com
Things change regularly and oftentimes swing from one extreme to the other. A month ago, Maryland defensive lineman Josh Paschal was talking about not just visiting Ohio State once in November, but twice. He had planned to see the Buckeyes on Nov.

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Google ESPN pulling out all the stops for coverage of The Game - 247Sports

ESPN pulling out all the stops for coverage of The Game - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


ESPN pulling out all the stops for coverage of The Game
247Sports
Chris Fowler calls the play-by-play alongside analyst Kirk Herbstreit and Samantha Ponder and Tom Rinaldi work from the sidelines, with Ponder reporting on the Buckeyes and Rinaldi the Wolverines. Derek Mobley (director) and Bill Bonnell (producer ...

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Google Wrestling: Buckeyes Dominate Kent State, Cleveland State in First Thanksgiving Throwdown -...

Wrestling: Buckeyes Dominate Kent State, Cleveland State in First Thanksgiving Throwdown - Eleven Warriors
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Wrestling: Buckeyes Dominate Kent State, Cleveland State in First Thanksgiving Throwdown
Eleven Warriors
The Ohio State wrestling team took a short trip up I-71 on Tuesday night, and returned home with a pair of victories over in-state foes. In an alternating tri-meet wrestled on two mats, the Buckeyes faced both the Kent State Golden Flashes and the ...


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Google Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, could he beat the Buckeyes but save the Browns? - cleveland.com

Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, could he beat the Buckeyes but save the Browns? - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, could he beat the Buckeyes but save the Browns?
cleveland.com
He can play linebacker, safety and cornerback on defense, then return punts and kickoffs, then slide to offense and take direct snaps or catch passes, running it like one of the best ball carriers in the country. What if doing it all for Peppers could ...

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Google It's time to start talking about two Big Ten teams in the playoff - ESPN

It's time to start talking about two Big Ten teams in the playoff - ESPN
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


It's time to start talking about two Big Ten teams in the playoff
ESPN
If the Nittany Lions, who have a head-to-head win over Ohio State (on Oct. 22), win the Big Ten title, the committee might be hard-pressed to go with the Buckeyes over the Nittany Lions in that scenario, even though Ohio State would have one fewer loss.
Ohio State football | Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankingsColumbus Dispatch
Ohio State Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankingSpringfield News Sun
Does the College Football Playoff committee think Ohio State and Penn State are comparable? What does it all mean?cleveland.com
Scout -The Sports Bank (blog) -CBS sports.com (blog)
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Google Is Ohio State's Curtis Samuel not running the ball because the Buckeyes need him as a...

Is Ohio State's Curtis Samuel not running the ball because the Buckeyes need him as a decoy? - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Is Ohio State's Curtis Samuel not running the ball because the Buckeyes need him as a decoy?
cleveland.com
So the Buckeyes haven't changed Samuel's role on purpose, at least as Meyer describes it. It's not that Samuel is just better catching the ball or because Weber has developed as a 1,000-yard rusher or because they're worried about Samuel taking too ...


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Google Ohio State Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff ranking - WHIO

Ohio State Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff ranking - WHIO
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff ranking
WHIO
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer watches the action during the first quarter of the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium on November 19, 2016 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images). 0. Share.

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Google Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson hold on to top four spots - ESPN

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson hold on to top four spots - ESPN
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson hold on to top four spots
ESPN
Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson continue to hold the inside track for spots in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The biggest game of this coming weekend will pit the Buckeyes against the Wolverines, while the Crimson ...
Ohio State Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankingDayton Daily News
Where will Ohio State rank in the next College Football Playoff rankings?Landof10.com
Ohio State football | Buckeyes stay at No. 2 in playoff rankingsColumbus Dispatch
The Sports Bank (blog) -CBS sports.com (blog) -WagerTalk Sports News (press release) (blog)
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LGHL Ohio State remains No. 2 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings

Ohio State remains No. 2 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings
Harry Lyles Jr.
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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The Bucks are in good shape.

Ohio State had a tough time with Michigan State on Saturday, coming away with a 17-16 victory in less than ideal conditions in East Lansing.

After that result, the Buckeyes come in at No. 2 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as we come down the stretch. They remain behind Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide, just as the rest of the country has all season.

The Buckeyes will have one final test in the regular season against the Michigan Wolverines. A win there would help the Buckeyes in fulfilling their College Football Playoff hopes moving forward, whether that turns into a Big Ten Championship game appearance or not.

Navy and Houston were newcomers to the rankings at No. 25 and No. 20 respectively. Big Ten foe Penn State moved up to No. 7.

Here are your entire College Football Playoff rankings:

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Google Why Ohio State CB Gareon Conley could be the Buckeyes' most important player vs. Michigan -...

Why Ohio State CB Gareon Conley could be the Buckeyes' most important player vs. Michigan - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Why Ohio State CB Gareon Conley could be the Buckeyes' most important player vs. Michigan
cleveland.com
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- There was a College Football Playoff logo on the football Gareon Conley intercepted to seal Ohio State's 17-16 win at Michigan State on Saturday. Conley brought it into the postgame interview room and tucked it under his arm as he ...


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Google Inside the Ohio State vs. Michigan matchups: Buckeyes CB Gareon Conley vs. Wolverines CB...

Inside the Ohio State vs. Michigan matchups: Buckeyes CB Gareon Conley vs. Wolverines CB Jourdan Lewis - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Inside the Ohio State vs. Michigan matchups: Buckeyes CB Gareon Conley vs. Wolverines CB Jourdan Lewis
cleveland.com
Ohio State's new secondary wrinkle will make things interesting, especially if John O'Korn is Michigan's quarterback on Saturday and continues his passing struggles. The last few games, in third-down nickel situations, the Buckeyes have been using ...


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tBBC Guest Post by @StefanWolejszo: A Detailed Look at Ottawa’s Attendance

Guest Post by @StefanWolejszo: A Detailed Look at Ottawa’s Attendance
T6S
via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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The Senators’ attendance issue is something that’s been tackled by a variety of news sources, but until now, this site hasn’t really discussed the sparse crowds in great detail until now.

The following post was penned by the excellent @StefanWolejszo. If you’re not already, give your head a shake and give the man a follow on Twitter.

Take it away, Stef.

The dramatic drop in attendance for Ottawa Senators’ home games this season has become both a local and a national story. Both of the main Ottawa newspapers have mentioned low attendance in post-game summaries, and secondary news sources such as The Ottawa Report have keyed in on low attendance in feature stories about the Senators. NBC Sports published an article on Ottawa Senators’ attendance woes before the Senators played their 4th home game, and CBC also ran a feature this past week focusing on how Ottawa fans have been staying at home in large numbers so far this season.

Media attention, along with the experience of attending or watching Senators games played before a lot of empty seats, has fueled speculation about why people are staying away.

A quick survey of fan thoughts reveals a staggering number of possible reasons for the attendance drop, including (in no particular order): federal government employees suffering through an ongoing pay issue created by the government’s decision to switch to Phoenix; the discussion of new arena this past summer helps make the current game day experience feel insufficient; there’s the inefficient location of Canadian Tire Center; many local sports fans allocating their entertainment dollars to go to RedBlacks CFL football games; many sports fans elected to stay home and watch the Blue Jays’ playoff run instead; low scoring games this season fuelling the perception of an unentertaining style; “Melnyk malaise” has set in; a lack of changes in personnel that leads fans to believe team cannot or will not improve; an underwhelming in-game experience for fans; a genuine concern for the lack of team direction or an investment of hope that current management and ownership can deliver a winner; the prohibitive cost of going to games coupled with how enjoyable and affordable the experience is watching on HDTV at home; the abandonment of Capital Tickets and transition to the new Ticketmaster system has not been smooth; the ignorance and complete disregard for tradition (ie. this organization has a stunning ability to take what should be a slam dunk decision and doing the complete opposite (ie. Lyndon Slewidge, their hesitancy to embrace analytics, bungling the Daniel Alfredsson contract negotiations); there are roster decisions that fuel the perception that this team is putting its short-term interests and low benchmarks ahead of its long-term interests; there have been too many home games stacked too close together against dreadful draws; casual fans and season ticket holders have a hard time being enticed to go to a game or renew their ticket packages when the team is stuck in a perpetual cycle of mediocrity; the easily identifiable blue line problem that has existed since the conclusion of the 2006/07 season still hasn’t been fixed; fans having a hard time stomaching talks about internal budget; the quality of the team’s marketing department has noticeably deteriorated; some believe that the promotion of the Pierre Dorion maintained status quo or at the very least, view him as being complicit in the way this franchise has operated over the past number of years; and finally, many fans remain skeptical and would prefer to wait and see whether this product is worth investing time and money into.

Whew, that is quite a long list, but by no means is it exhaustive.

For the most part individual fans and media identify their own gripes with the team and work backwards from there.

That is understandable, but often time not particularly illuminating. For example, although Bryan Murray remains a popular figure in Ottawa are fans really staying away by the thousands because they are outraged that he is no longer the GM of the team, as NBC suggested?

Does the argument that fans staying away because the current structure is boring hold up when attendance was down from the first game of the season?

Was autumn in Ottawa this year really that much better than every other year over the past couple of decades? And, are Ottawa fans really bandwagoners considering they supported some pretty crappy teams in the past?

Comparing Apples to Apples

The first step in looking at attendance issues with the Ottawa Senators this season is to piece together how big a drop has actually occurred.

Media accounts that I have seen have compared this year’s attendance to date with averages from past seasons.

Using this method CBC, for example, showed that the team has experienced a drop of 3000-4000 fans per game.

This is misleading because the initial 11 games of the season may not ever draw as many fans as later games when the stakes get higher and the team is in a playoff drive. To correct this I have compiled historic averages in attendance of only the first 11 games of each season. Note that I relied on data from the Ottawa Senators website which only goes back to the 1997-98 season.

Mean Average Attendance for First 11 Home Games

Season Attendance Team Success Notes
1997-98 16353 Lost 2nd round
1998-99 15572 Lost 1st round
1999-00 16819 Lost 1st round
2000-01 17048 Lost 1st round
2001-02 16464 Lost 2nd round
2002-03 16120 Lost 3rd round President’s Trophy winners
2003-04 17076 Lost 1st round Melnyk becomes owner
2004-05 n/a Season cancelled
2005-06 19220 Lost 2nd round Start of CASH (Pizza) line
2006-07 18927 Cup Finalists
2007-08 19406 Lost 1st round
2008-09 18970 Missed playoffs
2009-10 18221 Lost 1st round
2010-11 17817 Missed playoffs
2011-12 19051 Lost 1st round First (last?) year of mini-rebuild
2012-13 18981 Lost 2nd round Lockout shortened season
2013-14 17539 Missed playoffs No more free tickets
2014-15 18474 Lost 1st round First RedBlacks season
2015-16 17562 Missed playoffs
2016-17 14984 TBD LeBreton Arena proposals in summer

The drop in attendance from last season appears to be about 2500 fans. It should be noted that 2015-16 was also on the low end of normal so the falloff could be a bit higher. Comparing the first 11 games of this season with the first 11 games of other seasons corrects the perception that the Sens have lost 3000-4000 fans.

Unlikely

Several fan theories seem unlikely based on these figures. For example, the theory that Ottawa fans will only support a winner is not really true given that attendance was really good in 2011-12 despite missing the playoffs two out of the prior three seasons.

The lack of free tickets is also not likely because there was no real falloff in attendance after the team stopped giving tickets away in 2013-14. In fact, if you consider that the numbers prior to 2013-14 were probably inflated by giveaways there were probably more ticket buyers after the change in team policy.

The team played its 11th game of this season on Nov 19, and the density of home games (i.e. how close they are together) is similar to 2015-16 (for example), while 2013-14 had more home games in a shorter period of time at the start of the season. We can safely set aside the argument that the density of games was the driving factor. There was definitely a lot of suckage among early opponents and the Sens faced teams that never draw particularly well such as Carolina and Arizona. However, attendance was also down against Toronto and Montreal, who are typically huge draws, so it is unlikely that the mix of teams that were visiting was that big a driver in the attendance drop.

I also classify things that have not changed from year to year as being unlikely causes of the drop in attendance. For instance, although the Kanata location sucks it does not suck any more than it did a decade ago when the Sens were playing in front of a packed house. Ditto for parking, and if anything the food has marginally improved. I am highly skeptical that discussing the possibility of a move to LeBreton a few years down the road provided a psychic shock to fans that led them to suddenly realize, en masse, that Kanata is essentially a sewer built on top of a swamp located in the middle of nowhere. I am also skeptical that there has been a drop in marketing quality this particular year that is so massive that a couple of thousand people who would otherwise attend game opted to just stay at home instead.

One argument that certainly appears to make sense is that since coming onto the scene in 2014 the Ottawa RedBlacks football team is siphoning off dollars from a limited pool of sports fans in the city. The question, however, is whether this argument holds up when looking more closely at the numbers. RedBlacks attendance over their three years in Ottawa is shown in the table below.

Ottawa RedBlacks Attendance

Year Regular Season Playoffs
2014 24295 n/a
2015 23432 25093
2016 24673 24248

There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Senators and RedBlacks share a lot of the same fans. However, when looking at attendance figures for football and hockey it is hard to justify the argument that Sens attendance has dipped because of the RedBlacks.

When football first came onto the scene in 2014 Senators actually increased their average ticket sales by about 900. The Sens dropped by about 900 the next season when the RedBlacks had a better team and made the playoffs, but RedBlacks regular season attendance that year was down almost as much as the Sens. Furthermore, the amount the Sens dropped can be interpreted as a return to normal because their attendance over the first 11 games of 2015-16 was roughly the same as it was over that same stretch in 2013-14. The only real argument left is that the RedBlacks attendance went up by 1250 or so fans in 2016 and they made the playoffs. However, that gain in fans simply brought them back to the level they were at in 2014 when the Sens were at a high mark in attendance.

Lastly, if the RedBlacks playoff game in 2015 had no negative impact on Sens attendance over the first 11 games of that season there is no real reason to believe the playoff game this year, with lower attendance, explains the Sens fans staying at home this year. Some fans who initially attended both football and hockey games may indeed have come to the conclusion that they will keep supporting the RedBlacks but not the Sens, but that appears to be an issue of the Sens losing those fans more than the RedBlacks stealing them away.

Plausible

When unlikely arguments, and facets of the franchise that do not really change from season to season, are stripped away we are really left with two plausible explanations for the drop in Senators attendance: the impact of Phoenix issues, and a general dissatisfaction about the direction of the team.

The Phoenix pay issues for Government of Canada employees seems like a good fit because those issues coincide with the drop in attendance. However, two things that happen at the same time are not necessarily related to each other. With this in mind I started to double-check whether the math adds up (beware, math coming- if you are not interested skip ahead to the next paragraph). Phoenix initially impacted on the pay of 80,000 Government of Canada employees, and that number was reduced to 40,000 by the summer with 18,000 or so lingering cases right now. About 42% of federal public servants are in the National Capital Region (NCR), which means (assuming pay issues were randomly distributed) approximately 33,600 people in the Ottawa area were initially impacted.

According to Statistics Canada, the Ottawa-Gatineau area has a population of 1.11 million people, 772,900 of whom are in the labor force. Assuming more people who attend Sens games are on the Ottawa side it should be noted that Ottawa itself has a population of 839,000 with 580,800 in the labor force. Using only number for Ottawa the Phoenix pay issue impacted on about 5.8% of workers in Ottawa, with 2.9% of the workforce still impacted over summer and about 1.3% of Ottawa’s work force still experiencing Phoenix-related pay issues.

The long and the short of it is that compared with last season the Senators experienced a drop in attendance over the first 11 games of about 14.7% while Phoenix pay issues, at their worst point, impacted on roughly 5.8% of the work force. At first glance that does not add up, but there are two other factors to consider in this equation. First off people do not exist in isolation, so if a pay issue hits one person in a couple it is possible that neither will go so two tickets will not be sold.

This effect is further amplified for people who normally bring children to games. Of course there are probably plenty of cases where there is no such multiplication of effects, such as when Phoenix issues impact on potential ticket buyers who are single, or when both individuals who form the couple experience separate Phoenix issues. Also, with a relatively small proportion of lingering pay issues left people could simply buy tickets to games once their pay issues are resolved. Second, public servants may be disproportionately represented among ticket buyers.

This actually makes some degree of sense since public servants typically have a decent level of pay, and it is not hard to imagine a lot of them would want to relax and take in a game after sitting in a cubicle and praying for death all day long. For this reason I prefer to err on the high side with my estimates of the impact of Phoenix issues on ticket purchases.

At the end of the day, at its worst, Phoenix issues could potentially account for as much as a 10% drop in attendance. Even if it does actually account for 10% of the difference between last season and this season it still leaves us with about 1000-1500 less fans to account for (after a loss of almost 1000 fans the season before).

At this point it is likely that fan perception of the direction of the team is a factor. Fans weigh many factors when deciding to spend money to buy tickets, and if they stop having faith in the direction of the team they will spend their $50, or $100, or $200 elsewhere. The most important thing a team sells to fans is hope, and although it is anecdotal it appears that working on a low-end budget and trying continually to “win now” and earn playoff revenue is not capturing the imagination of parts of the fan base in Ottawa. That is not to say trying to make the playoffs is a bad thing. In fact, just making the playoffs is a very reasonable goal for franchises who have been bad for a while, and long-suffering fans always appreciate the jolt of energy when their team makes it back in. But that does not seem to be that way in Ottawa, and at least some fans are becoming jaded about the notion that this team will progress and ultimately contend for the Cup in the near or medium horizon. As they search for something to get behind, many fans are struggling to figure out what direction the team is actually going in and what the larger plan is.

Implications

In their annual review of team finances, Forbes lists Ottawa Senators gate receipts for 2015 as being $41 million. The loss of fans is not randomly distributed across different sections, but for our purposes we can estimate that a 14.7% drop in attendance over the course of the season would represent a loss of revenue of about 5 or 6 million. In fact, it has probably already cost the team somewhere in the range of $1.0-$1.5 million in ticket sales alone. It gets worse when you look at revenue per fan, which accounts for a portion of fans paying for parking, buying a drink, and having a snack. In 2015 the Sens made, on average, $76 per fan. If the team budgeted based on projections for similar ticket sales as last season, the shortfall of about 2500 fans per game represents a shortfall of over $2 million already, and if fans continue to stay away at this rate it would mean the team will be $8 million below projected revenues by the end of the season.

Yikes!

The first thing I thought of when that number came up on my calculator was Melnyk’s comments shortly after Dorion was hired. In his initial presser Dorion told the media that he had the financial flexibility to hire any coach he wanted, even someone with a hefty price tag like Boudreau. Melnyk quickly did his own media spot where he suggested that any money Dorion spends on a coach will come from other places. The 8 million dollar question is what will happen when the team ends up in the black for what appears to be a pretty hefty amount.

Once the holiday season arrives and we get into the winter months, I anticipate that we’ll continue to see that trend where attendance rises, but it’s impossible to ignore this market’s response to the state of the Ottawa Senators.

Thanks to one playoff series win in the past ten years and the perception of Eugene Melnyk as a meddling owner who puts generating profit ahead of a championship as one of his benchmark goals, who can blame fans for staying away?

Ottawa is a smart fan base and fatigue has set in and they’re voicing their displeasure with their wallets. That doesn’t mean that this city and its fans don’t support this hockey club. They do. It just means that there’s a serious distrust with the way that their hockey team is operating. Until there’s a significant improvement or the vision for this team’s future outlook becomes less muddied, it’s an issue that the organization will have to address.

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BH: Film don't lie | Where are they weak?
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Agree on Butt, he's hurt Buckeyes quite a bit. So did Chesson, I believe last year. We'll see how De'Veon Smith does vs. OSU run defense, although LJ Scott showed you there are some holes in there. foxr2001: Steve, how about providing us a unit for ...
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