Ohio State v. Northwestern: 2024 game preview and prediction
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The Buckeyes will be looking to hit a home run at Wrigley Field on Saturday against Northwestern.
Ohio State will play in one of the most iconic sports venues in the country on Saturday when they travel to the “Friendly Confines” to take on the
Northwestern Wildcats at Wrigley Field. The Buckeyes will look to build off last week’s 45-0 domination of Purdue, while also staying healthy with home games against Indiana and Michigan on deck to close out the regular season.
Following tight games with Nebraska and Penn State, Ohio State was able to breathe easy last week, shutting out the Boilermakers in Columbus. Will Howard was nearly perfect, Jeremiah Smith set two more freshman receiving records, and the defense continued to stymie opponents in the blowout win by the Buckeyes.
The shutout was Ohio State’s second of the season, marking the first time since 2014 that the Buckeyes have recorded at least two shutouts in a season.
History with Northwestern
Saturday’s game against Northwestern will be the fifth-straight game between the schools played outside Columbus. The teams met in Evanston in 2019 and 2022, while playing in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2018 and 2020.
Ohio State has won 65 of the 79 games played in the series, and is riding a 10-game winning streak against the Wildcats. The last win by Northwestern over the Buckeyes was a 33-14 triumph in 2004. Ohio State won the most recent meeting 21-7 in 2022 in a game that will be remembered for the extremely windy conditions that kept the Buckeye offense grounded, snapping a streak of seven straight games in which they scored at least 40 points.
Rounding the bases
Even though Ohio State will be playing at Wrigley Field for the first time, this won’t be the first time the Buckeyes and Wildcats have met at a baseball stadium. In 1991, the teams played at Cleveland Municipal Stadium, with Ohio State winning 34-3.
This will be the sixth MLB stadium the Buckeyes have played in. Previous Ohio State has played at the Polo Grounds, the Metrodome in Minneapolis, Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego, and Anaheim Stadium.
Finding their groove again
Will Howard continues to be the steady leader of the Ohio State offense, completing 21 of his 26 pass attempts against Purdue, totaling 260 yards and three touchdowns through the air, and also adding a rushing touchdown to open up the scoring in the game. For his efforts last week, Howard was named the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Week.
By finishing with a completion percentage of at least 80 percent last week, Howard now holds the single-season and career school records with five games where he has completed at least 80 percent of his passes. The 74 percent completion percentage by Howard currently ranks second in the country.
The biggest story offensively last week for Ohio State was Jeremiah Smith taking over the top spot of two more school freshman receiving records. After passing Cris Carter for most receiving yards by a freshman in school history two weeks ago, last week Smith moved past Carter’s freshman reception and receiving touchdown marks.
Entering this week’s game, Smith has caught 45 passes for 765 yards and nine touchdowns. The yardage and touchdown totals from Smith this year are currently leading the team.
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
The only receiving category Smith isn’t leading is receptions, as Emeka Egbuka has two more than Smith. Egbuka’s only catch last week was a touchdown, pulling him one receiving touchdown away from tying Garrett Wilson’s 23 career receiving touchdowns, which ranks eighth in school history. Along with the receiving touchdown mark, Egbuka is six catches away from moving past Chris Olave for third in school history, and 60 yards from passing Devin Smith’s 2,503 receiving yards for seventh all-time at Ohio State.
By sharing touches with Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson looks fresh as we enter the middle of November. Last week Henderson ran for 85 yards and a score on just carries, while also grabbing three passes for 43 yards. Henderson now has 3,333 rushing yards, which moves him past J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller for seventh place in school history, just 50 yards away from passing Chris “Beanie” Wells. The senior is averaging 7.5 yards per carry this season, which is a career-high.
Unlike Henderson, Judkins has had a hard time finding running room lately. Judkins has run for less than 30 yards in three of the last four games, with his 95 yards against Penn State being the only game in the last month where he has had some success on the ground. Even with his recent struggles, Judkins is still averaging 6.1 yards per carry this season.
A top-tier defense
Despite allowing nearly 500 yards and 32 points to Oregon, Ohio State still statistically has one of the best defenses in the country. The Buckeyes are tops in the nation in total defense, giving up just 250.8 yards per game. When it comes to points allowed, Ohio State is giving up just 10.7 points per game, good for second-lowest in the country. Aside from the loss to the Ducks, the Ohio State defense hasn’t allowed more than 273 yards in a game this season.
The Buckeye linebackers have continued to solidify the middle of the defense. With six tackles against Penn State, Cody Simon led the team in tackles for a fourth straight game. Simon has 49 tackles on the season, leaving him eight tackles shy of tying his career-high from last season. The senior has also been more active behind the line of scrimmage lately, recording 4.5 tackles for loss over the last three games.
Leading the team in tackles this season is Sonny Styles, who has been credited with 57 tackles through nine games. The junior secured a career-high in tackles with the five stops he made last week, pushing him past the 53 tackles he made as a sophomore. After moving from safety to linebacker in the offseason, Styles hasn’t taken long to adapt to his new position, becoming a force at linebacker thanks to his outstanding athletic ability.
Reports of J.T. Tuimoloau’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Tuimoloau can be a frustrating watch at times since Buckeye Nation has seen just how much he can change a game, as evidenced by his 2022 performance at Penn State. The senior now has at least half a tackle for loss in seven straight games, giving him a team-high 10 TFLs this year, putting him just half a TFL away from matching his 2022 total. Tuimoloau has five sacks this year, matching his 2023 total, which he notched last season.
Tuimoloau forced a fumble against Purdue which was picked up and returned for a touchdown by Jack Sawyer. Maybe the scoop and score can snap Sawyer out of his recent funk. In the three games prior to last week’s contest, Sawyer failed to record a sack or a TFL. The senior will be looking for a similar close to the season as last year, when he had 7.5 tackles for loss and five sacks over the final three games of the season.
After sitting out the Penn State game because of injury, Lathan Ransom returned to the lineup last week, picking off a Hudson Card pass as Purdue was driving. The senior safety has done a little bit of everything in 2024, intercepting a pass for the third straight season, forcing two fumbles, recovering a fumble and returning it for a touchdown in the season opener against Akron, and recording a career-high 4.5 TFLs.
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While Caleb Downs hasn’t been as prolific statistically as he was during his freshman year at Alabama, that doesn’t mean Downs isn’t playing at a high-level. Downs is still demanding respect from opposing offenses, daring them to give him a chance to make a game-changing play.
Plus, Downs isn’t having to shoulder as much of the load this year since he has so much talent around him in the secondary with Ransom, Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun, and Jordan Hancock.
Northwestern’s season so far
Northwestern enters this game coming off a 26-20 overtime win over Purdue two weeks ago, pushing their record to 4-5 this season. The Wildcats never trailed in the game against the Boilermakers, earning the victory on a 22-yard receiving touchdown by running back Joseph Himon II. With three games left in the season, Northwestern needs to win two games to earn bowl eligibility in back-to-back seasons under head coach David Braun.
Last year the Wildcats beat Utah 14-7 in the Las Vegas Bowl to cap off an 8-5 season under Braun, who was elevated to head coach shortly before the season after the removal of Pat Fitzgerald because of a hazing scandal. For Northwestern’s success last year under tough circumstances, Braun was named the 2023 Big Ten Coach of the Year.
Who the Wildcats look to on offense
In the win over Purdue, Northwestern finished with 424 yards of offense, which is their highest total against an FBS team this season. After Mike Wright started the first two games of the season, Jack Lausch was named the starter prior to the third game of the season.
Lausch enters the game with 1,120 yards passing, five touchdown tosses, four interceptions, and 218 yards and a score on the ground. Against Purdue, Lausch finished with 250 yards passing and the game-winning touchdown pass in overtime. While Lausch has been solid since taking over at quarterback, one area where he could improve is with his completion percentage, as he has connected on just 53.6 percent of his passes this year.
Leading the charge at running back for Northwestern is Cam Porter, who has reached at least 80 carries in four different seasons. This year, Porter has carried the football 97 times for 387 yards, finding the end zone a career-high six times. The Buckeyes will have to keep tabs on Lausch finding Porter with screen passes, as the running back has 39 receptions over the last two seasons. The Cincinnati native will be playing Ohio State for the third time in his career, rushing for at least 50 yards in each of his first two meetings with the Buckeyes.
Joseph Himon II is coming off the best game of his college career. The sophomore running back rushed for 78 yards and a touchdown, while also hauling in three passes for 34 yards and the game-winning touchdown. Himon’s big play ability compliments the grinding running style of Porter. Following the Purdue game, Himon will come into this game with a lot of confidence. Expect the Wildcats to look for more ways to get Himon the football after what he showed against the Boilermakers.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
The leading receiver for Northwestern entering this game is A.J. Henning, who has 40 catches this season. The former Michigan wideout is five catches away from tying his career-high, which he set last season. Henning has 426 yards receiving to lead the team, 12 yards more than Bryce Kirtz, who has missed the last two games.
Prior to suffering an injury against Wisconsin, Kirtz had two outstanding games, hauling in 13 balls for 251 yards against Indiana and Maryland. Henning and Kirtz are the only Wildcats with at least 20 catches and 200 receiving yards this season. Much like the last two games, Kirtz is unlikely to play, as head coach David Braun said he is optimistic Kirtz will play before the end of the year, which doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement for the wide receiver suiting up this week.
Northwestern on defense
Like Kirtz, one of the best defenders for the Wildcats has been dealing with an injury. Xander Mueller also hasn’t played since the Wisconsin game. The linebacker had a tremendous 2023 season, registering 110 tackles, five sacks, and three interceptions. With his output last season, Mueller became just the third Big Ten defender since 2000 to record 100 tackles, five sacks, and three interceptions in a season.
With Mueller on the sidelines, Mac Uihlein has shouldered more responsibility at linebacker. Uihlein leads the team with 58 tackles. The junior has two games with at least 10 tackles, including a career-high 13 stops in the blowout win over Maryland last month. If Mueller can’t play on Saturday, expect Grayson Metz to start for a third straight game. Metz had a team-high eight tackles in the overtime win against Purdue two weeks ago.
One surprise at linebacker has been Nigel Glover barely seeing the field this year for the Wildcats. After committing to Northwestern, Glover transferred to Ohio State following the firing of Pat Fitzgerald. The four-star prospect wasn’t able to get comfortable in Columbus, transferring back to Northwestern during the offseason. Glover has appeared in five games this year, but has yet to record a tackle.
The most dangerous defensive lineman Northwestern has is Aidan Hubbard. The redshirt junior from Cleveland has 10 sacks since the start of the 2023 season, which is tied with J.T. Tuimoloau for third-most in the Big Ten during that span. This season, Hubbard has a team-high four sacks. Fellow defensive linemen Michael Kilbane and Anto Saka each have 2.5 sacks this season. Like Hubbard, Kilbane is also a Cleveland native.
In the secondary, Theran Johnson is second on the team with 44 tackles, while also picking off two passes this season, returning one for a touchdown. Along with Johnson, Northwestern has received contributions from a number of defensive backs. Five others in the secondary have recorded at least 27 tackles this year, with four of those defensive backs intercepting a pass.
Graduate senior free safety Coco Azema is the most senior member of the unit, while juniors Johnson and safety Devin Turner give the group veteran leadership. Cornerbacks Braden Turner, Robert Fitzgerald, and Evan Smith are only sophomores and provide a solid core for the secondary to build on over the next couple seasons.
Prediction
Saturday’s game will likely look a lot like Ohio State’s game against Purdue last week. Even though Northwestern will show more fight than the Boilermakers did, the Wildcats are still a heavy underdog in this game. Northwestern has had a tough time consistently generating offense this season, and the lack of scoring pop will be amplified if Bryce Wirtz is again sidelined.
Honestly, the tougher opponent for the Buckeyes in this game is going to be the venue. Since Wrigley Field is a baseball stadium there are going to be some quirks. Not only is there not a lot of space in the back of the end zones, last year there was major issues with the turf when Iowa and Northwestern played at Wrigley.
Ohio State is going to have to be careful to try and avoid injuries to some of their important players since the Buckeyes still have a ton to play for the rest of the season. The best course of action is to try and build a comfortable lead early and pull their starters earlier than normal.
The good news for Ohio State is they don’t have to deal with the wild weather they encountered the last time they were in the Chicago area. Saturday isn’t expected to be anywhere close to as windy as 2022, plus the temperature will be pretty good for mid-November in Chicago. The elements shouldn’t hamper the Buckeye offense in any way.
As long as Ohio State avoid a slow start in this game, they shouldn’t have any issues with Northwestern. With Jack Lausch still being a relatively new starter, J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer should be able to put pressure on Lausch. If the dynamic defensive end duo can’t get to Lausch, they should be able to force him into mistakes that the rest of the defense can clean up.
One area the offense needs to focus on is getting Quinshon Judkins going since the talented running back has had a tough time finding space lately. The issue can’t be blame on the offensive line since TreVeyon Henderson has been running behind the same line and been tearing it up. The Buckeye offense will be even tougher to stop if they can get both Judkins and Henderson on the same page over these next few weeks.
To sum up Saturday’s game in simple terms: Build an early lead, keep your foot on the gas, stay healthy, move on to Indiana.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 42, Northwestern 10
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