Unreasonable Expectations: An undefeated 2024 Ohio State football season
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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It’s not just an Ohio State thing, it’s simply unreasonable to expect any team to go unbeaten.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about our Unreasonable Expectations. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our Unreasonable Expectations here.
Around this time last year, I wrote about my unreasonable expectations that there would be no drop-off in quarterback performance after C.J. Stroud. It turned out that those expectations were indeed unreasonable, although the numbers indicate the drop-off wasn’t as precipitous as some fans (loudly) proclaimed it to be.
That was mainly down to big game performances, third downs, and the loss of Emeka Egbuka for part of the year. In the end, no first-year starter should be expected to reach veteran Stroud numbers, which is what made the expectation unreasonable in the first place.
My unreasonable expectation this season is for
Ohio State to go undefeated in 2024. This kind of expectation is unreasonable for fans of any team, regardless of schedule.
There are just far too many variables over the course of a college football season to expect a team — especially in a conference like the Big Ten — to make it through 12 games without a defeat. Add in a conference championship game and postseason and you get a statistical improbability of a perfect campaign.
Even the best teams with the weakest schedule are subject to key injuries. The loss of a starting quarterback may not have prevented an Ohio State national championship a few years back, but it easily could have.
It’s pretty easy now to look back upon what Cardale Jones was able to do and apply that universally, but it isn’t that simple. What Jones and those Buckeyes did was incredible — hanging 59-0 on Wisconsin before beating Alabama and Oregon, while having to go through the three Heisman Trophy finalists in a row, all while your quarterback starts his first three college games, is remarkable even for those with the highest standards.
Here’s the schedule that awaits Ohio State this fall:
- Aug. 31 vs. Akron
- Sept. 7 vs. Western Michigan
- Sept. 21 vs. Marshall
- Sept. 28 at Michigan State
- Oct. 5 vs. Iowa
- Oct. 12 at Oregon
- Oct. 26 vs. Nebraska
- Nov. 2 at Penn State
- Nov. 9 vs. Purdue
- Nov. 16 at Northwestern
- Nov. 23 vs. Indiana
- Nov. 30 vs. Michigan
Without taking into account a conference championship game or expanded playoff matchups, the Buckeyes have a good shot at an undefeated campaign, but there are some obvious hurdles. The biggest is the early road game at Oregon. That’s going to be an insane atmosphere for Ohio State to manage with a new quarterback at the helm (or a fairly inexperienced one if Devin Brown wins the job).
Other obstacles include the Oct. 5 battle with Iowa, the Nov. 2 meeting with the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley, and The Game at the end of November. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ohio State to win any of those games individually, but few teams go undefeated, so it’s unreasonable to expect the Buckeyes to win them all. Believing they will doesn’t necessarily make you a blind homer, but it perhaps speaks to a lack of consideration of probability and variables.
Ohio State appears poised to go into preseason camp with a roster capable of winning a national championship. The Buckeyes could do that without going undefeated, especially with an expanded playoff. Doing so without losing a game is attainable, but it’s not a slam dunk.
The roster has question marks. Quarterback is an unknown variable at this point, and that’s the most important position on the field. Egbuka returns, but the 2024 Buckeyes will have far less experience at the wide receiver position than they’ve had for quite some time. The offensive line has to prove itself relative to the 2023 group. New players at linebacker have to perform.
Those are the unknowns, and they are numerous for a team with national championship aspirations. That’s before taking into account less forseeable things such as injuries.
I grew up in an era when three losses served as the dividing line between a successful Ohio State season and one that wasn’t good enough — keeping in mind that if none of those three losses came against Michigan, it was still pretty much good enough.
By today’s standards, fans would lose their minds over three losses, demanding literally every university in the football program be fired and most of the players replaced. As that’s what has been “normal” during the bulk of my 57 years on this planet, I’ve never expected an undefeated Ohio State season.
However, for the sake of this article, and just to try something different, I’m going to entertain that unreasonable expectation in 2024 and see how it goes. No one should do this, but if you do, at least I’m with you in 2024.
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