Ohio State men’s basketball vs. No. 20 Michigan: Game preview and prediction
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Roddy Gayle returns to Columbus as Jake Diebler and Dusty May face off for the first time.
Ohio State (15-10, 7-7) will host No. 20 Michigan (19-5, 11-2) on CBS at 1:00 p.m. ET at the Schottenstein Center.
According to Ohio State Athletics, Sunday’s game will be the 192nd all-time meeting between the two schools. Officially, Ohio State leads the series 102-82, taking into account the vacated games.
The teams have split the last 20 meetings (10-10), and Ohio State holds just a 20-point edge (1,363-1,343) in combined points in those games.
Last year, the teams split their regular season meetings, with each winning on its home floor. Michigan won 73-65 win in Ann Arbor, and but in the second meeting the Buckeyes dominated from start to finish in an 84-61 victory on Senior Day.
Michigan comes into this game on a five-game winning streak, taking down Purdue in its last game 75-73.
This is the game of storylines, with first-year head coaches Dusty May and Jake Diebler facing off for the first time and former Ohio State guard Roddy Gayle returning to Columbus after spending two years as a Buckeye and transferring to Michigan.
Preview
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Michigan is led by the Twin Towers, two seven-footers, in Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. Goldin is a transfer from Florida Atlantic that May brought with him to Ann Arbor, and Wolf is a transfer from Yale that was one of the more coveted targets in the transfer portal last season.
Goldin averages 15.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. He shoots 63.9 percent from the field and 74 percent from the free-throw line. He also has shot 47 percent from beyond the three-point line this season, although it has been on limited attempts (9-for-19).
Wolf averages 12.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Wolf is also second in the Big Ten in turnovers per game, averaging 3.4 giveaways per game.
Auburn transfer guard Tre Donaldson has also been a valuable addition to the Wolverines, averaging 12.9 points per game, 3.5 rebounds per game, and 4.2 assists per game. He’s also shooting 42% from three-point range on nearly five attempts per game.
Gayle has been up and down for Michigan, similar to his sophomore season at Ohio State. He is averaging 10.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. He has struggled shooting the ball, shooting 45 percent from the field and 22 percent from the three-point line. His turnovers are slightly down, believe it or not, but basically all other counting stats — including his minutes — have gone down from a year ago.
Nimari Burnett averages 10.1 points and 3.5 rebounds per game as the fifth Michigan player to average double-digit points. He’s Michigan’s most efficient three-point shooter, knocking them down at 42.7% on just under five attempts per game.
For the Buckeyes, junior point guard Bruce Thornton leads the team in scoring at 17.3 points per game. He’s also grabbing 3.4 rebounds per game and dishing out 4.3 assists per game. Both of those marks are lower than last year, but he’s been incredibly efficient scoring the basketball, shooting 52 percent from the field, 46 percent from three-point range, and 83 percent from the free-throw line.
Sophomore forward Devin Royal is averaging 13.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, leading the team in the latter category. Freshman guard John Mobley Jr. has been one of the top shooters in the country, averaging 13.4 points per game on 42 percent from three-point range and 91 percent from the free-throw line.
Mobley has made five three-pointers in back-to-back games and now leads the Big Ten with 63 three-pointers. He’s one of just 13 players in the country, and just one of three freshmen, to have made a three-pointer in every game this season. Mobley is also on pace to have the best free-throw season in program history. The current record holder is Jody Finney, who hit 90% of his free throws during the 1968-1069 season.
Micah Parrish averages 12.5 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. He’s averaged 21.3 points per game over the last three games, shooting 53.4% overall and 42.8% from three-point range during that time. Parrish is playing in his 160th career game on Sunday and has been great over the last month. He’s also averaged a team-best 17.4 points per game over the last eight games.
In his previous four seasons, he scored 20 points in a game just three times. In the last seven games, he’s recorded 20 or more points three times, including a 30-point game last Sunday at Nebraska.
Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart are averaging 6.8 and 5.7 points per game, respectively. Stewart also averages 5.8 rebounds per game.
Both teams are rated favorably according to the metrics, with Michigan ranked No. 22 and Ohio State ranked No. 28 in KenPom. Michigan is No. 25 in offensive rating and No. 18 in defensive rating, while Ohio State is ranked No. 29 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Prediction
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This game will come down to how well Ohio State can defend Goldin and Wolf due to their size and how well they run the pick-and-roll action between the two of them. Sean Stewart and Evan Mahaffey will be the defensive catalysts for this, and if they can use their athleticism to slow those two down, the Buckeyes have the advantage at guard and can lead them to a win.
Also, the Buckeyes have proven they can win games that they are outmatched in the frontcourt. They beat Purdue against Trey Kaufman-Renn and defeated Maryland with Derik Queen and Julian Reese.
This is one of the games that Thornton has to assert himself as the best player on the floor. He has had games where he has done that and scored 30 points, but in other games, he has tried to set others up and facilitate when he should be taking the offense into his own hands.
This game should be high-scoring, as these are two of the top-scoring teams in the conference, with Michigan averaging 81.4 points per game and Ohio State averaging 79.8 points per game.
This is also a sandwiched game for Michigan, as they just played Purdue and play
Michigan State in its next game on Friday, so there could be a little let-down and look ahead for the Wolverines.
ESPN BPI: Ohio State 60.4%
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 83, Michigan 78
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