You’re Nuts: Who is a dark horse candidate for the 2024 Heisman Trophy?
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
As preseason camp begins this week, Land-Grant Holy Land is diving into its final theme every week of the off-season. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
We are now less than a month away from the start of the college football season. We have already seen conferences release their preseason all-conference teams, and soon enough we are going to see positional awards name their preseason watch lists. While the most prestigious individual award in college football doesn’t have its own watch list, there have been odds posted on who will win this year’s Heisman Trophy for months.
More often than not the Heisman Trophy finalists end up being composed of those with some of the lowest odds in the preseason, but there are also players who don’t get as much attention heading into the season who find their way to New York City in December. Today we want to know what dark horse candidate you think could factor into the conversation for the golden stiff-arm this year.
By “dark horse” candidate, we’ll go with any player that has posted odds of +3000 or higher to win this year’s Heisman Trophy. Last year’s finalists all had lower odds than that, but back in 2022 Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett had preseason odds of +8000. A few of the favorites to win this year’s Heisman Trophy are Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Carson Beck of Georgia, Texas signal-caller Quinn Ewers, and
Ohio State’s Will Howard.
Today’s question: Who is a dark horse candidate for the 2024 Heisman Trophy?
We’d love to hear your choices. Either respond to us on Twitter at @Landgrant33 or leave your choice in the comments.
Brett’s answer: Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (+3500)
Even though it pains me to say anything positive about Penn State, I think there is some great value in Drew Allar’s odds of winning the Heisman. Last year Allar took over for Sean Clifford, who exhausted his college eligibility after starting at quarterback for the Nittany Lions for what felt like 37 years. In his first year as the starter, Allar completed nearly 60 percent of his passes, throwing for 2,631 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. While Allar did have rough starts against Michigan and Ohio State, he did throw for four touchdowns against a stout Iowa defense.
Not only should Allar be even more comfortable running the Penn State offense in his second year as the starter, the Nittany Lions have a pretty favorable schedule. The toughest game on Penn State’s schedule is in early November when they’ll host Ohio State. Honestly, the Nittany Lions don’t even have to win the game for Allar to stay in the Heisman conversation, he just has to make some throws to keep Penn State in the game.
The rather soft schedule should keep Penn State in the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff, which will benefit Allar’s chances. A road game at USC could be in primetime, and Allar should be able to carve up the soft defense of the Trojans. A couple weeks later Penn State travels to Wisconsin, where they’ll see a raucous crowd at Camp-Randall Stadium in a winnable game against the Badgers. Then the Nittany Lions will host Washington following the Ohio State game. If Penn State goes 3-1 or better in that stretch, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Allar as a Heisman contender.
What will also help Allar is he’ll be the star of the Penn State offense, unlike Ohio State where you could see a few of their offensive weapons stealing votes from each other. The talent the Buckeyes have amassed will be better for winning the national title, where Allar could do enough to lead the Nittany Lions to a playoff spot and be named a Heisman finalist, but it’ll be hard for them to get over the next hurdle in late December and beyond.
Matt’s answer: Utah quarterback Cam Rising (+4000)
When Cam Rising is healthy, he is one of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football, but following an injury suffered in the
Rose Bowl at the end of the 2022 season, the Utah Utes quarterback missed all of the 2023 campaign. However, he has apparently healed from his ACL, meniscus, MPFL, and MCL tears and is looking to lead his squad in the newly configured Big 12.
In 2022, Rising completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,939 yards through the air and accounted for 31 total touchdowns — six on the ground. There’s no telling yet exactly how the QBs rebuilt knee will respond and if he will be the same player as he was before. However, it is safe to expect that he will be one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12.
With Oklahoma and Texas now departed for the SEC, there is a power vacuum at the top of the league and Utah seems like as good of a program to take advantage as any. Avery Johnson at
Kansas State, Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman, Shedeur Sanders from Colorado, new Baylor signal-caller Dequan Finn (previously of Toledo), and Rising will compete for the top QB spot in the league.
Because of the Utes’ always sturdy defense, it’s likely that they will be in more games than not, so that should give Rising the opportunity to have multiple Hesiman moments. And when it comes to projecting the contenders for the biggest individual award in the sport, you can’t overestimate the importance of narrative.
After a second season-ending injury (Rising injured his shoulder in 2020 against USC causing him to miss the remainder of the season), if the Utah QB ends up being one of the best players in college football, the story will be a part of every pregame show, broadcast, and conversation about the season. This is the type of thing that can often have a major impact on who ends up getting an invite to New York and winning the award.
Cam Rising 2022 Season Highlights:
Continue reading...