Ohio State opens as 24.5-point favorites over Michigan State
Gene Ross via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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The Buckeyes will open up Big Ten play in East Lansing.
Ohio State completed its non-conference schedule a perfect 3-0, outscoring its first three opponents this season by a combined score of 157-20. Things will start to ramp up for the Buckeyes now with the start of Big Ten play, with Ryan Day’s crew hitting the road for the first time next weekend for a night game against
Michigan State in East Lansing.
Betting Odds: Ohio State -24.5 | O/U 49.5 (per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ohio State had little trouble navigating through a pair of MAC opponents and a Sun Belt foe, scoring at least 49 points in each of its first three games of the season. The Buckeyes’ defense had look impenetrable through the first two contests, but showed some cracks against Marshall, allowing their first two touchdowns of the year against the Herd — both in the first half.
The new Chip Kelly-led offense has gone off without a hitch to this point. Will Howard has gotten comfortable in scarlet and gray, completing just under 70% of his passes for almost 800 yards with six touchdowns to just one interception, also adding a pair of rushing touchdowns. The two-headed monster of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins at running back has been as advertised, with the duo combining to average over nine yards per carry with nine total TDs — five for Judkins and four for Henderson. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka have led the way through the air, both hauling in 14 receptions for 281 and 266 yards, respectively, with Smith tallying four TDs in his first three collegiate games.
Defensively, Ohio State had kept opposing offenses out of the end zone before the Thundering Herd came to town. The Buckeyes allowed a pair of touchdowns to Marshall, and gave up about as many total yards (264) as they had in their first two games combined (276). The real issue for the Silver Bullets was the defensive line, which had trouble generating pressure and also containing the quarterback run. After Ohio State had recorded eight sacks in its first two contests, the Buckeyes got home only once against the Herd. Jim Knowles’ group will have to figure out what went wrong quickly, as they face another capable runner at QB in Week 4.
Michigan State had gotten off to a 3-0 start this season, including its first Big Ten win of the season in a 27-24 victory over Maryland on a game-winning field goal, but suffered its first loss this weekend in a hotly contest 23-19 contest against Boston College. Overall, the Spartans have looked much improved under head coach Jonathon Smith, who is in his first year leading the program having spent the last six seasons at
Oregon State.
Speaking of the Beavers, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles followed Smith from Corvallis to East Lansing. The former top-60 national recruit has been a mixed bag to this point, throwing for nearly 900 yards and scoring seven touchdowns (four passing, three rushing) but also throwing seven interceptions. The Spartans deploy a two-man backfield like Ohio State, with Kay’Ron Adams and Nate Carter combining for 478 yards and two TDs on around five yards per carry. Nick Marsh, Montorie Foster and Jack Velling — another Oregon State transfer — have all eclipsed 150 yards through the air.
After several years of Michigan State owning one of the nation’s worst secondaries, this year’s defensive group is more than competent. That starts in the front seven, where linebackers Khris Bogle and Jordan Turner have been wreaking havoc with three sacks apiece and 11 combined tackles for loss. As a unit, the Spartans rank atop the Big Ten with 15 sacks and 32 tackles for loss, having also recorded four picks and forcing three fumbles. Cornerback Charles Brantley leads on the back end, picking off two passes and tallying a team-high four pass breakups.
This Michigan State team should be far more competitive than the past few years, with Ohio State having won each of the last eight meetings between the two schools and winning each of the last five by at least 24 points. The Spartans will likely look to attack the Buckeyes in a similar fashion that Marshall did, but with better athletes. Ohio State will have to come to town with a better showing from its front seven, especially along the defensive line, or they could find themselves in a shootout.
Still, the oddsmakers believe in the Buckeyes to figure it out, as they are more than a three-touchdown favorite on the road. Michigan State is a great first test for Ohio State as it enters Big Ten play, as the Spartans likely don’t have enough to sustain an upset over the course of a full game, but have more than enough to make things interesting and keep things within reach if the Buckeyes aren’t well prepared.
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