On pulpit
This has been a really wonderful thread to read, and sometimes re-read as we lead up to Draft day.
Here are some thoughts about the reliability of QB selections in the Draft.
1 -- Picking a QB in the 1st round is an absolute and complete crap-shoot. (And for those who understand odds, probably worse than a crap-shoot).
For every Dan Marino, or John Elway the history of the draft is littered with over-rated "studs" who for one reason or another didn't cut it.
Cases in point
The problem children - Ryan Leaf, Art Schlichter
The over-rated - Akili Smith and a whole draft's worth of other can't miss prospects
Not a person a rational GM should touch with a ten-foot barge pole- Jeff George...
2 -- Many of the best known names in Pro Football, with great resumes and actual honest to god winning production were under-rated in the draft.
Cases in point
Too small - Joe Theisman 4th round pick (actually by Miami)
Not from a big enough program - Brett Favre (really, that is one of the things that was said) 2nd round pick Atlanta
Others were simply more highly favored - Joe Montana picked by SF in the 3rd round
And of course from the New England Patriots the poster boy of a winner that everyone else gave short thrift to - Tom Brady, selected 199th overall, 6th round.
The point being that GMs of NFL teams have more failures selecting QBs than (I would argue) any other position on the team. Those they denigrate often exceed at the highest levels of the game. Those they beatify early more often than not fall from grace in a multitude of ways.
Bottom line, pro teams need to re-invent how they evaluate and draft for the all important position of QB, they also need to realistically assess how they compensate these princes of the gridiron. For some it might be better to back-load their contracts till they have time to flourish and develop. (Plunkett {1st overall pick} or Ken Stabler {2nd round pick} anyone).
OK - I'm off the pulpit now.