I'm picking the 2013 Buckeyes to go 12-2. Based on the talent differential between Ohio State and each of its opponents, I would be hard pressed to pick against the Buckeyes in any given regular season game, and they should be favored in every contest. However, it is difficult for any team to run the table against any level of competition, as the Buckeyes learned last season with close calls against mediocre-to-bad teams like California (3-9), Indiana (4-8), Purdue (6-7), and Michigan State (7-6). Eventually some inferior opponent will catch a few lucky breaks and Ohio State will lose a game that, on paper, it should have won.
The Buckeyes' 2013 opponents are as follows (home in scarlet; away in black):
08/31/13: Buffalo
09/07/13: San Diego State
09/14/13: California
09/21/13: Florida A+M
09/28/13: Wisconsin
10/05/13: Northwestern
10/19/13: Iowa
10/26/13: Penn State
11/02/13: Purdue
11/16/13: Illinois
11/23/13: Indiana
11/30/13: Michigan
The Buckeyes enter the 2013 season on a 12-game winning streak. The longest unbeaten streak in school history is 22 games, which the Buckeyes accomplished twice: from November 4, 1967 to November 15, 1969 (all wins); and from November 6, 1915 to November 9, 1918 (21 wins and one tie). The second longest unbeaten streak is 19 games, which has occurred three times: August 24, 2002 to September 27, 2003 (all wins); October 15, 2005 to November 18, 2006 (all wins); and September 15, 1973 to November 2, 1974 (18 wins and one tie). If everything goes as planned, the Buckeyes should be riding a school-record 23-game winning streak heading into Ann Arbor for the regular season finale.
That's if everything goes as planned. California outplayed Ohio State last year, and a trip to the West Coast is always a risky proposition. Wisconsin is expected to be down in 2013, but the Badgers always seem to play the Buckeyes tough. A night game at Northwestern might be the most difficult game on paper, which doesn't say much for the overall level of talent in the Big Ten. Purdue has been a pain in the neck for the last decade or so, and the Boilermakers came closer than any other team to ruining the Buckeyes' perfect record last season (as they also did in 2002). Indiana can score points in bunches (31 per game in 2012, including 49 against Ohio State), so the Buckeyes cannot afford to look past the Hoosiers in anticipation of The Game.
It's obviously difficult to win 23 games in a row, as the Buckeyes have never done it in 124 years of organized football. Ohio State should win its first eleven games this year, thereby eclipsing the team's all-time mark, but I'm betting that they won't. I don't know who the culprit will be, but some lowly opponent will unexpectedly rise up and end the Buckeyes' winning streak before this team can make history.
To finish the season, I see Ohio State beating Michigan handily, winning the Big Ten title game, but losing in a BCS bowl game to wind up the season at 12-2.
Some keys to the 2013 season:
Braxton Miller: The Buckeyes' quarterback will be the deciding factor between a very good season and a championship season. If Miller plays at the same level as he did in 2012, then the Buckeyes should win at least eleven games. However, if he is able to substantially elevate his game, then another perfect season and a crystal football could be in order, not to mention a Heisman Trophy for Braxton. Specifically, Miller will need to increase his completion percentage from a rather pedestrian 58.3%, and he will also need to develop better pocket presence so that he can avoid the sacks that killed too many promising drives last season. Although Miller might be the most dynamic player in college football, he needs to be a better decision maker both in the passing game and the option running attack. If it all comes together for Miller in 2013, then the Buckeyes should find themselves in Pasadena on January 6, 2014 with a national championship on the line.
The Wide Receivers: Last year, Philly Brown (60 receptions, 669 yards, 3 TD's) and Devin Smith (30 receptions, 618 yards, 6 TD's) emerged as legitimate receiving threats. However, the next three wide outs in terms of production (Evan Spencer, Chris Fields, Michael Thomas) caught a combined 19 passes for 213 yards and one touchdown - needless to say, that's not going to get the job done. All five receivers are back this season, and for the Buckeye offense to click, Brown and Smith must repeat their 2012 performances, while the others need to step up and provide viable third and fourth options in the passing game. True freshmen Jalin Marshall and James Clark could be the most talented players at the wide receiver position, but they will need time to develop.
Defensive Line: The Buckeyes lost all four of their starting defensive linemen from last year's squad, including Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Johnny Simon (45 tackles, 14.5 TFL's, 9 sacks, 4 pass deflections). While most teams would need a year or two to rebuild from such losses, the Buckeye defensive line might actually be better in 2013. Certainly, DE Noah Spence (12 tackles, 1 sack), DE Adolphus Washington (9 tackles, 3 sacks), and DT Michael Bennett (11 tackles, 1 sack) will provide an upgrade in sheer athleticism over their 2012 counterparts, but it will be difficult for them to replace all that experience. True freshman phenom Joey Bosa will also be in the rotation from day one, at strong-side end and possibly tackle, and sophomore Jamal Marcus will see some time as a pass rush specialist. Nose tackle remains a question mark, as starter Joel Hale is unproven (10 tackles in two years), and key back-up Tommy Schutt recently went down with a foot injury that will sideline him for at least six games. True freshman Michael Hill and former offensive linemen Chase Farris and Chris Carter will also get a look in the middle of the line.
Curtis Grant: As a high school senior in 2011, Curtis Grant was a consensus "five star" recruit (Scout #1 OLB, #19 overall; Rivals #1 LB, #2 overall). Since enrolling at Ohio State, Grant has amassed a grand total of ten tackles in two years. Now entering his junior season, it is pretty obvious that Grant will never make us forget Spielman and Katzenmoyer and Laurinaitis, but can he at least make us forget Zach Boren? If Curtis can't be the man in the middle of the Buckeye defense, then the coaching staff will have to look at true freshmen Mike Mitchell and Trey Johnson, unproven sophomore Camren Williams, or walk-on Joe Burger.
The Special Teams: First the good news: Philly Brown established himself as a respectable punt returner in 2012, with 18 returns for 221 yards (12.3 average) and a pair of touchdowns, and the team blocked two punts (one of which was recovered for a touchdown by Bradley Roby). Now the bad news: the special teams allowed three blocked punts and gave up three touchdowns in the return game (2 on punts, one on a kick-off). Somewhere in the middle was Drew Basil's place kicking - just 8 for 11 on field goal attempts (.727 success rate), with two of the misses coming from inside 40 yards - and the kick return game, which averaged only 19.9 yards per return, with a long of just 36 yards. New punter Cameron Johnston is a former Australian Rules Football player, but that doesn't mean he's the next Brad Wing. Poor special teams play has plagued the Buckeyes in recent years, and in order to make a championship run, the special teams must improve.
