Texas will win because:
- USC doesn't seem to have much of a defense. Sure, they shut down UCLA, but Fresno State scored 40+ on them.
- Texas, on the other hand, has a great offense. They scored 40+ in 11/12 games.
1. The USC defense is statistically the same or better than last year's defense, if you normalize it for the season averages of their opponents (the average offensive numbers of some of their regular opponents have increased significantly this year)
2. The USC defense is also tops in the nation in turnover margin, and Texas is prone to fumbles. You don't do that witha bad defense.
3. The USC defense has marginalized some very very good QBs, some of whom were rated #1 (or close to the top) BEFORE they met USC - includes Keller, Clemens, Quinn, and Olson of UCLA (who was last rated #1 before Vince Young snagged it after USC stifled Olson during their UCLA game). You don't do that with a bad defense.
Finally, I'd be leery of making much ado about Texas' scoring as they have gone against really weak Big 12 teams most of the time.
I think given 1 month preparation Caroll will have Young so confused he'll be throwing interceptions to the USC defense all night, just as USC beat OU earlier this year with turnovers.
USC 52
Texas 27
PS. Fresno State was playing the game of their history - they were a very good, very emotional team that day, and Pinegar before being neutralized by the USC defense using interceptions, was very accurate. He actually was similar to the Cal QB rogers last year, when cal almost beat USC because of Roger's precision passing that game.