Tropical Weather

[Mike80]

Megi made landfall with a pressure of 885 MB and winds as high as 200 MPH SUSTAINED making it the strongest ever recorded cyclone making landfall.

Stronger than Camille (905 190)

 

[sharkonwheels]

Sustained 200 mph. That would affect the structural integrity of one's thatched hut.

That would affect the integrity of damn near EVERYTHING



Been through Andrew... and all the others since...

200MPH?

Sorry - I'd be going elsewhere.

Some shit like that takes aim at me, I'll be posting here for available living space in Ohio for me-n-the-family.

Don't wanna be anywhere NEAR a 200MPH hurricane...

 

[Gatorubet]

Megi made landfall with a pressure of 885 MB and winds as high as 200 MPH SUSTAINED making it the strongest ever recorded cyclone making landfall.

Stronger than Camille (905 190)

That is sick. There will be some horrible devastation from this. My prayers go to the people of that area. Those left alive especially.

 

[Gatorubet]

Look at that circulation!!! It had to go over some pretty damn tall mountains, and yet it retains that level of system cohesion.

I bet Hong Kong is scared Michiganless.

 

[sharkonwheels]

Reports are saying it hit with 165MPH winds, central pressure of 914mb.

That's just NASTY strong.

 

[Gatorubet]

99L to my south is now something to look at more frequently...

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

 

[Mike80]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203114.shtml?5-daynl#contents

everyone n the gulf coast and Florida needs to watch Tomas

 

[TGfan06]

Emily develops and could be aiming for a S Florida landfall.

Will most likely have to go through the dominican or haiti to get there, so I cant imagine it being that strong if it were to hold together.

 

[buxfan4life]

Emily develops and could be aiming for a S Florida landfall.

Will most likely have to go through the dominican or haiti to get there, so I cant imagine it being that strong if it were to hold together.

We'll see what happens to her once she goes over Hispaniola. As of now, we are not really worried down here.

 

[scarletmike]

As long as it doesn't disrupt my flight on Friday evening, it can do whatever it wants after I land.

 

[Gatorubet]

To revisit on Wednesday.

 

[Mike80]

To revisit on Wednesday.

When looking at that set of models and given the predicted intensity of the low, one of two things will bear out:

A) if the low strengthens significantly, it will move more to the north.

B) if the low stays weak (or vertically shallow as the METs put it), it will stay more to the south.

At the moment, the southern option seems to be the model consensus, but one of the global models has it intensifying quite a bit.

Should be interesting to watch.

 

[Gatorubet]

Long as that Big 'Ole High over Texas stays put, the Big Easy should be good to go.

Still, time to fire up the generator again and see how its working. September and the hot Gulf is more of a worry to me than July or August.

 

[Mike80]

To revisit on Wednesday.

When looking at that set of models and given the predicted intensity of the low, one of two things will bear out:

A) if the low strengthens significantly, it will move more to the north.

B) if the low stays weak (or vertically shallow as the METs put it), it will stay more to the south.

At the moment, the southern option seems to be the model consensus, but one of the global models has it intensifying quite a bit.

Should be interesting to watch.

And what became Harvey essentially followed the purple line until it intersected with the orange line, which it then followed ashore in Belize.

Irene should be an interesting storm. Right now the significant land interaction in the forecast should keep it from being a monster, but if it goes to the south of Hispanola or to the north and through the Bahamas, it will almost certainly be a Major Hurricane in 3-4 days.

And yes, Gator and everyone else, time to make sure everything from generators to any plans in place are in working order. Given how active this season has already been (at least in terms of number of named storms), the gulf is seriously warm right now and has barely been disturbed. We've gone over 3 full years since a Hurricane struck the coastal US and that is well above the mean.

 

[Mike80]

Here are the intensity models for Irene.

Despite the Hurricane Force winds that most (all but 3) models forecast around the 132 hour mark, at least it won't be another Katrina or Rita or Wilma or Ivan or anything like that it seems right now. Granted that's a long way out, but it's fairly clear the models are virtually all expecting some type of land interaction with Hispanola and/Cuba. That's a good thing. A weak-Hurricane isn't so bad - especially for the rain-starved Southeast.