Tropical Weather

[Mike80]

Earl is a Category 4 storm...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 302047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.3N 64.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W 130 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

That means Earl went from a strong Tropical Storm to a Cat 4 Hurricane in 30 hours or so. That's pretty impressive.

Also, note that the NHC prediction is for 130 kts which is 149.5 MPH give or take. That's very close to Cat 5 status.

 

[Mike80]

The NorthWest turn has FINALLY occurred.

Let's hope that it gets swept out to sea. Usually a storm that goes through the Herbert Box hit the southeastern United States. Let's hope this won't be the case here.

 

[buxfan4life]

Earl is a Category 4 storm...



That means Earl went from a strong Tropical Storm to a Cat 4 Hurricane in 30 hours or so. That's pretty impressive.

Also, note that the NHC prediction is for 130 kts which is 149.5 MPH give or take. That's very close to Cat 5 status.

OK, I was wrong. I just hope that it starts tracking back out to sea here soon or the east coast is in for some rough weather now.

 

[MD Buckeye]

 

[PlanetFrnd]

holy shit

 

[Mike80]

Keep an eye on Igor....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

[Gatorubet]

Meh. I don't live in Bermuda. ( I was arrested by Marine MPs there...but that's not the reason )


Mike - I DO have my eye on f-ing 92L though....

 

[Mike80]

It went from 80 MPH at 5AM to 135 MPH at 1:30 PM. that's pretty good.

 

[Mike80]

Meh. I don't live in Bermuda. ( I was arrested by Marine MPs there...but that's not the reason )


Mike - I DO have my eye on f-ing 92L though....

I don't think 92L will do anything for at least another day. Then we'll see.

It's sitting over a LOT of hot water though.

 

[Mike80]

 

[Mike80]

 

[Dryden]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gVWjsPEiqe1tEu2mhBIRaxxGi8owD9I73R100

Igor was at Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph (240 kph).

Earlier in the day, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Igor could reach Category 5 strength, but later said fluctuations in intensity were possible over the next two days.

...

Also in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Julia was moving westward, away from the southern Cape Verde Islands. Julia was about 115 miles (185 kilometers) west of the southernmost islands and moving west-northwest near 14 mph (22 kph).

The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph). Julia could become a hurricane in a few days, the National Hurricane Center said.

 

[FCollinsBuckeye]

Keep an eye on Igor....

It's pronounced "eye-gor"

 

[Mike80]

The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning.

We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph.

This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb.

Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.

200 MPH winds?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1661

 

[Gatorubet]

200 MPH winds?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1661

Sustained 200 mph. That would affect the structural integrity of one's thatched hut.