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Tropical Weather

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Yeah, but they all have that land interaction with Hispaniola/Cuba followed by an almost immediate landfall in Florida. If for some reason the High over texas goes west, a more southerly route taken over the Gulf heading my way would kick those wind numbers up to unhappy get-the-Hell-out-of-town status. I'll hang in town for a one or two, but a three or above I'm heading north.
 
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Gatorubet;1972809; said:
Yeah, but they all have that land interaction with Hispaniola/Cuba followed by an almost immediate landfall in Florida. If for some reason the High over texas goes west, a more southerly route taken over the Gulf heading my way would kick those wind numbers up to unhappy get-the-Hell-out-of-town status. I'll hang in town for a one or two, but a three or above I'm heading north.
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I just found this graphic here:

at201109_ensmodel.gif


These are most of the 12Z GFS ensemble runs. they've virtually all shifted to the east significantly, suggesting the high is either going to build east or a trof is going to dig in between the high in Texas and the Bermuda High. This is, BTW, the PERFECT situation for an East coast strike.

Bucknut24;1972811; said:
I have a feeling this is going to fuck up my move to Charlotte
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See above, I'd say your move is probably going to be fucked with a tad.
 
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We have the first Hurricane of the Atlantic Season in Irene.

the storm essentially skirted Puerto Rico while strengthening overnight. It appears that it will go north (mostly) of Hispanola.

This is good because in the weather pattern ahead of it, the more latitude it gains now, the less likely it is that it will enter the Gulf. However, this puts Florida and the SE Coast firmly in the cross-hairs too.

Heads up.

The 6Z GFS takes at least a CAT 3 into South Carolina...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/...NTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
 
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Bucky Katt;1973176; said:
Awesome. Driving down to SC Saturday, just as it's hitting. :banger:
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at201109.gif

at201109_model.gif


If she is a 3 or a 4 like they now forecast, I'd re-think the Hell out of that decision Katt. Bahamas is gonna get hurt pretty bad by storm surge. I hope it misses the Carolinas. Hugo was too recent a bad memory.
 
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Gatorubet;1973647; said:
at201109.gif

at201109_model.gif


If she is a 3 or a 4 like they now forecast, I'd re-think the Hell out of that decision Katt.
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Pfffft. You would. :roll1:

We'll probably play it by ear as the date gets closer, maybe grab a hotel in Southern Virginia or Northern North Carolina on Saturday if it looks like we'd be driving right into it.
 
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Gatorubet;1973647; said:
If she is a 3 or a 4 like they now forecast, I'd re-think the Hell out of that decision Katt. Bahamas is gonna get hurt pretty bad by storm surge. I hope it misses the Carolinas. Hugo was too recent a bad memory.
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Yeah, this one is sucking up a lot of energy right now. (And pushing a lot of water). I'd make myself "flexible" as to travel arrangements at this point.

U.S. has been very lucky the last 2 years, I think the last hurricane level storm to hit the US was Ike in '08. Well, and I don't think anyone in the Midwest is going to forget that cocksucker for a while.
 
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Bucky Katt;1973748; said:
Pfffft. You would. :roll1:

We'll probably play it by ear as the date gets closer, maybe grab a hotel in Southern Virginia or Northern North Carolina on Saturday if it looks like we'd be driving right into it.
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Reserve one now my friend. With the evacuations, there will be a bunch of filled rooms on Saturday.
 
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Looks like the forecast tracks keep creeping east. If the high pressure system sitting over the middle of the atlantic ocean keeps heading east, this thing may never make landfall on US soil.

One good thing about this storm is that is has prompted a lot of my clients to start on their Hurricane Readiness Plans, even though it is the 11th hour. :lol:
 
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