Tropical Weather

[Nutriaitch]

GFDL is the one I have more faith in.

I think good ole Nash Roberts runs the UKMET
that one always seems to put them coming right up Terrebonne Bay, just like Nash always predicted.

 

[Mike80]

GFDL is the one I have more faith in.

If the tracks near Hispanola verify, Erika won't survive kinda like Ana didn't....

 

[Mike80]

And it starts already....

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

It's very far to the south and pretty far east for this time of year. NHC is giving it a 50% chance of development. Cape Verde type storms don't usually start until late August.

 

[Mike80]

the disturbance pictured above is likely to be the next tropical system in the Atlantic.

Seeing where the models take this one - it will get interesting in about 7 days.

Animated Tropical WRF Model | Sea Level Pressure & Wind Direction | Hurricane and Tropical Storm coverage from MyFoxHurricane.com

 

[Gatorubet]

I don't trust Fox's reporting on left leaning tropical weather systems. :p


Invest 91 has a much better chance of developing if it takes the most southerly track of the various models. The Atlantic is at record high temperature levels ( per the global temperature conspiracy) - so it has a good chance of making tropical depression by Tuesday.

 

[Mike80]

I don't trust Fox's reporting on left leaning tropical weather systems. :p


Invest 91 has a much better chance of developing if it the most southerly track of the various models. The Atlantic is at record high temperature levels ( per the global temperature conspiracy) - so it has a good chance of making tropical depression by Tuesday.

I'd be shocked if it isn't a depression by tomorrow at some point. The storm needs to gain a bit more latitude to get away from the ICTZ totally.

The thing that may inhibit this is the Atlantic is in a slightly downward MJO (which enhances rainfall and thunderstorm development within the tropics when in an upward phase), but with the high temps and what appears to be a lack of wind shear, pretty much everyone from the east coast of Florida to North Carolina should be watching very closely.

 

[Gatorubet]

I tracked Katrina since it was a low pressure system. I don't do that anymore. When it hits the gulf, it hits my radar as far as every couple hour monitoring. From July-on my "flight or hunker down" options are in "ready" status, with generator and gas, food, water, propane, and firearms stockpiles all good to go.

This is a great little purchase.

WaterBOB?: emergency drinking water storage

 

[Mike80]

 

[TGfan06]

I don't know. Anything that forms that far out usually seems to curve back out to see. I see that happening here as well. But I will say that is quite an impressive looking system and I hope everyone at least keeps an eye on it.

 

[buxfan4life]

Meh. I start to worry when the Home Depot and Publix parking lots are totally full. Until then it is nothing more than "that system way out there".

 

[Mike80]

Uh oh....

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900atl_anim.html

gfs 2010080218 Forecast slp Java Animation

Granted it's only two models, but they are usually the most accurate.

Interesting that if you look where it develops the storm, there is essentially NOTHING there.

Caribbean - AVN Color Infrared Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

 

[Gatorubet]

TD 5 is worth watching. 50% chance of it reaching Tropical Storm status. But the gulf is hot-hot-hot. Poorly organized when you look at the radar though. Figures. I had planned to be in Florida this weekend, and a TS were to come here, I'd stay to make sure another of those *%^$# pine trees does not fall on my roof. :[censored]ed:

 

[Mike80]

TD5 has a very broad circulation so it will take a while to tighten up and intensify (I hope)

But still, let the oil speculation begin!!

 

[Gatorubet]

TD5 has a very broad circulation so it will take a while to tighten up and intensify (I hope)

But still, let the oil speculation begin!! :[censored]ed:

Mike, I'd be happier if it was not poking along at about 5 mph. I want that bitch to be making tracks and go inland before it can strengthen

 

[Mike80]

Mike, I'd be happier if it was not poking along at about 5 mph. I want that bitch to be making tracks and go inland before it can strengthen

I don't think it will have the upper level support to bomb out on us though...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-8 RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...
NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN