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Tropical Weather

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please keep everyone on that Florida coast in your thoughts and prayers. I truly hope most people heeded the warnings and got out.

i saw first hand what a storm like this can do to the coast, and it's truly hard to fathom.
there will be parts of that area that will be completely unrecognizable on the backside of this thing.

structures can be replaced. people can't.
 
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BuckBackHome said:
Some of these projected paths make me think this storm hates vacation locations. Potentially hitting a nice area of FL then to Orlando and then to Hilton Head.
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i'm not familiar with Orlando's history of direct hits, but if it's been a while, they can expect damages equivalent to a category above what they actually receive.

Baton Rouge for Gustav in '08 was a good example.
was no longer even Hurricane strength by time it made it that far inland. But damages were more in line with a strong 1 low 2.
trees that haven't seen winds like that in 25 years got decimated. power lines that were just as old all snapped.
shingle roofs were ripped up
etc.
That's what towns like Orlando and Gainesville will be dealing with. That's the stuff that doesn't make the news because it's boring.
but it really can affect basic utilities (water and electricity) for an extended period of time.

when you get these storms (even weaker ones) on a regular basis, all the weak limbs and trees get destroyed and removed before they get big enough to do any damages.
power lines and shingles get replaced more often, etc.

now what Punta Gorda is about to receive, what we got for Ida last year, Lake Charles got for Laura in 2020.....
well nothing is really prepared for those.
100+ year old structures that survived all the historic storms fell for those.
 
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From what I learned this week
west Florida generally avoids major issues because a hurricane derives a lot of it's force from winds it sucks from its east/NE side.. thus for W FL that wind is coming over land not water...
which is also why Orlando has escaped most major hits especially if the hurricane comes from the Gulf...

but W FL is gonna get epic destruction with this bad boy... and I assume Tampa/St Pete will have huge flooding issues... since the tsunami will come in from the bay then feed all those waterways that snake thru those cities...
 
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Potentially thankfully for my area (Orlando metro north and west of I-4), that movement more east than north overnight shifted the worst a little farther south, but it sounds like the coastal areas it will make landfall over/near weren't as ready with evacuations as would have been ideal. Sarasota and Tampa got the initial evacuation orders but look to be on the better side of the storm flow (getting winds generally pushing water out of the Bay since it's coming in well south), farther south apparently was not as aggressive from what I understand. With this thing knocking on the door of Cat5...I can't imagine how bad it's going to get there. I know the panhandle/Big Bend area is still recovering from Michael, and where this will hit is even lower elevation in general (I can't imagine Cape Coral will be habitable, at best, for a while).
 
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NJ-Buckeye said:
and I assume Tampa/St Pete will have huge flooding issues....
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this is where every little wobble makes a huge difference.
it wobbles to the east/south, and water will actually be blown out and away from Tampa/St. Pete.
it wobbles north/west, and those 12-18 foot predictions creep toward the bay

right now it looks like the Bay area will be on the "good" side so water levels in Bay are probably actually dropping right now.

Fort Myers / Port Charlotte / Punta Gorda on the other hand are all in the worst possible spot at the moment.
with all those canals in that area? that is not a good place to be today
 
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News reports show Ian is sucking water out of Tampa Bay in a big way.. and may have a surge as much as 18 feet... that'll crush downtown Tampa
8abf6edc37f2a3f8056e671e0c523be5.jpg
 
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Nutriaitch said:
this is where every little wobble makes a huge difference.
it wobbles to the east/south, and water will actually be blown out and away from Tampa/St. Pete.
it wobbles north/west, and those 12-18 foot predictions creep toward the bay

right now it looks like the Bay area will be on the "good" side so water levels in Bay are probably actually dropping right now.

Fort Myers / Port Charlotte / Punta Gorda on the other hand are all in the worst possible spot at the moment.
with all those canals in that area? that is not a good place to be today
Click to expand...

The space coast is gonna get flooded by the onshore flow now too.
 
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scarletmike said:
Potentially thankfully for my area (Orlando metro north and west of I-4), that movement more east than north overnight shifted the worst a little farther south, but it sounds like the coastal areas it will make landfall over/near weren't as ready with evacuations as would have been ideal. Sarasota and Tampa got the initial evacuation orders but look to be on the better side of the storm flow (getting winds generally pushing water out of the Bay since it's coming in well south), farther south apparently was not as aggressive from what I understand. With this thing knocking on the door of Cat5...I can't imagine how bad it's going to get there. I know the panhandle/Big Bend area is still recovering from Michael, and where this will hit is even lower elevation in general (I can't imagine Cape Coral will be habitable, at best, for a while).
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that side should have been nearly as aggressive in evacuations.
storms as massively wide as this send surges a lot deeper and further from center.

parts of Florida panhandle saw 6-8 foot surges for Katrina.

a strenghtening lanfalling storm is terrifying.
i truly feel for those people.
 
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NJ-Buckeye said:
News reports show Ian is sucking water out of Tampa Bay in a big way.. and may have a surge as much as 18 feet... that'll crush downtown Tampa
8abf6edc37f2a3f8056e671e0c523be5.jpg
Click to expand...

at this point, Tampa was probably spared the surge. if it stays on current path, water will continuously be forced out and not back in (this what happened in my hometown for Ida last year)
Naples area will get the 18'
 
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Mike80 said:
The space coast is gonna get flooded by the onshore flow now too.
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Yep, they've actually been getting the worst of the weather for our area since last night. I just now heard the first real strong gust of wind-driven rain outside. I'm just praying the power infrastructure has been upgraded in the area we just built in as all the new construction pops up. Also hoping the homes across from me still in framing don't spit debris at us (front of the house faces east). I think the Space Coast is going to get caught off guard with this storm given how massive it grew. That eye is just incredibly huge.

EDIT: And if the GFS model for rainfall plays out...yikes. 3' of rain is just an insane amount to think about.
 
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