Tropical Weather

[TGfan06]

A STORM IS BREWING!!!!!!

Now this storm should be verrrrry interesting to watch develop. Looks like our next candidate for a major hurricane, but with the Atlantic coast as a likely target.

 

[Mike80]

well, kind of surprising, we had two tropical cyclones develop this morning.


The first, Tropical Storm Humberto, developed just off of the Texas Coast.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 122053
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP
REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW
HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5. THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD
DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF
COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 28.6N 94.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 94.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.3N 92.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The 2nd, still designated TD-8 is northeast of Puerto Rico

000
WTNT43 KNHC 122038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
HWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS
BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 45.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.9N 46.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.3N 47.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 48.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.1N 49.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.2N 52.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 58.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

the forecast right now has TD-8 becoming the next Tropical Storm tomorrow, but it won't strengthen due to shear beyond a minimal Hurricane at most in 5 days. Maybe.....the NHC kinda blew it with Felix so anything is possible at this point.

 

[Mike80]

well Humberto surprised the NHC and everyone in Texas by becoming a 85 mPH Hurricane right before landfall

How much damage was done won't be known until probably tomorrow, but what did happen is quite a few of the refineries shut down for the day and that will cause a bit of a shortage and spike in gas supplies and prices.

The best thing that could happen for the southeast did, Humberto is forecast to move rather slowly through the southeast, bringing rain with it as it goes through. The SouthEast is really really really dry right now

And could really use the rain.

 

[Mike80]

There is a new Tropical Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that people in the area need to watch.

000
WONT41 KNHC 201956
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT
115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE AIRCRAFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Mike80]

 

[Mike80]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 211503
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.

THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.2N 85.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.7N 86.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 30.1N 88.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 30.6N 90.3W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1200Z 31.5N 93.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

This storm should make another dent in that drought the deep south is having this year....

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Mike80]

If that track holds, it will beat the shit out of the same areas that Katrina and Ivan hit in 2004 and 2005. that said, the forecast keeps creeping east bit by bit, so it really wouldn't surprise me to see it bend back to the west some.

Look for gas and oil prices to spike as the platforms are evacuated and as refineries are shut down.

 

[Nutriaitch]

If that track holds, it will beat the shit out of the same areas that Katrina and Ivan hit in 2004 and 2005. that said, the forecast keeps creeping east bit by bit, so it really wouldn't surprise me to see it bend back to the west some.

That point for Monday afternoon is eerily similar to where Katrina was at this time 3 years ago. Hoping it does creep farther (and farther) eastward. I ain't looking forward to this shit again.

Look for gas and oil prices to spike as the platforms are evacuated and as refineries are shut down.

I work in the oilfield, and am hearing that most companies will begin evacuating their platforms tomorrow and Friday. So you can expect gas prices to spike before the weekend when you combine that with Labor day weekend traveling, so you may want to fill your tank soon so as not to pay atoo much more a day or two later.

I'll keep y'all updated on platform activity as I hear things. Should be a slow couple of days for me at work once they start shutting down the fields.

 

[Nutriaitch]

If that track holds, it will beat the shit out of the same areas that Katrina and Ivan hit in 2004 and 2005. that said, the forecast keeps creeping east bit by bit, so it really wouldn't surprise me to see it bend back to the west some.

they moved it slightly to the west again. In that pic above, that spot it's projected to hit is almost the identical spot Katrina landed.

I don't like that they're moving it westward. was MUCH happier when they were creeping it to the East.

 

[BUCKYLE]

:p

 

[fourteenandoh]

 

[Mike80]

this model may be a bit stronger than all of the others. This picture predicts a max sustained wind of 152 knots (or 175.333 MPH or thereabouts)

Earlier today the same model had Gustav going up to 175 kts (203 MPH) which would easily be a record for the Atlantic basin....as would the central pressure of 895 MB probably.....

 

[Mike80]

In fact, it still DOES have Gustav going up to the 175kt range at the 66 hour timeframe:

HWRF Hurricane Model Guidance gustav07l.2008082818


Nutriach - Gator, all of you down there - good luck and stay safe....

 

[fourteenandoh]

where is this from?

nevermind, saw your next post. let me get this straight, they are calling for 173 mile per hour winds? how credible is this model?

 

[Mike80]

where is this from?

FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies COAPS - it's part of the model structure the NHC uses to make their predictions....