Tropical Weather

[Mike80]

where is this from?

nevermind, saw your next post. let me get this straight, they are calling for 173 mile per hour winds? how credible is this model?

they are calling for 173 KT winds, a knot is 1.5MPH per knot.

It's one of the big 4, like i said and the outlier in terms of intensity at the moment.

I happen to believe it right now unfortunately.

I think Gustav will be a hurricane before it leaves Jamaica and will use all of that time over the bathwater of the Northern Caribbean and southern GOM to explode....

 

[jimotis4heisman]

Tropical Storm GUSTAV

Tropical Storm GUSTAV

all you on the gulf coast good luck. be safe, get the heck out. dont hang around.

 

[fourteenandoh]

what was katrina, 230 or so? i think a knot is closer to 1.15mph. 175 is still almost 200mph

 

[daddyphatsacs]

what was katrina, 230 or so? i think a knot is closer to 1.15mph. 175 is still almost 200mph

No, when Katrina made landfall it was a strong category 3, which is around 120 to 130 MPH.

 

[fourteenandoh]

No, when Katrina made landfall it was a strong category 3, which is around 120 to 130 MPH.

was it ever a 5? i saw on the web somewhere that the max wind speed was 230 mph. maybe that's when it was in the middle of the gulf?

 

[Nutriaitch]

In fact, it still DOES have Gustav going up to the 175kt range at the 66 hour timeframe:

HWRF Hurricane Model Guidance gustav07l.2008082818


Nutriach - Gator, all of you down there - good luck and stay safe....

FUCK!

was it ever a 5? i saw on the web somewhere that the max wind speed was 230 mph. maybe that's when it was in the middle of the gulf?

She got up to a 5 for a while in the Gulf up around 180 MPH winds, but simma-ed down before hitting land.
Rita did basically the same thing 3 weeks later.

 

[Gatorubet]

I think Gustav will be a hurricane before it leaves Jamaica and will use all of that time over the bathwater of the Northern Caribbean and southern GOM to explode....

Mike, the NHC agrees with you. If true, that would kick both Nutria and my asses...

The intensity forecast is increased over the previous forecast in
best agreement with the GFDL. However...it would be no surprise if
rapid intensification occurred and Gustav became a category 4 or 5
hurricane by 72 hr.


Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 29/0300z 17.8n 77.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 18.3n 78.6w 60 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 19.1n 80.4w 75 kt
36hr VT 30/1200z 20.4n 82.3w 90 kt
48hr VT 31/0000z 21.9n 84.2w 100 kt...near coast of Cuba
72hr VT 01/0000z 25.5n 87.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 02/0000z 28.5n 90.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 03/0000z 30.0n 92.5w 90 kt...inland
$ Beven

 

[Gatorubet]

Oh great.....the HWRF has it hitting me with 200 mph winds. I swear I have to stop looking at this crap

 

[scooter1369]

 

[Gatorubet]

About to leave the office. The fighting with the wife now has to go face to face from the via phone version.

Why she won't let me stay by myself for a few days and leave Sunday if it does not turn I will never know.

What? She thinks I'm gonna sit at home watching football, grilling the last freezer steaks, drinking large quantities of beer and jerking off to photoshopped pictures of Alaska politicians in the Romper Room?

 

[BUCKYLE]

What? She thinks I'm gonna sit at home watching football, grilling the last freezer steaks, drinking large quantities of beer and jerking off to photoshopped pictures of Alaska politicians in the Romper Room?

At the same time?

 

[LoKyBuckeye]

What? She thinks I'm gonna sit at home watching football, grilling the last freezer steaks, drinking large quantities of beer and jerking off to photoshopped pictures of Alaska politicians in the Romper Room?

what time should I be over?

 

[Best Buckeye]

What? She thinks I'm gonna sit at home watching football, grilling the last freezer steaks, drinking large quantities of beer and jerking off to photoshopped pictures of Alaska politicians in the Romper Room?

Well aren't YOU?

 

[Nutriaitch]

Current projected landfall is around Morgan City.
I could not have asked for a worse spot. A 12 foot surge would put nearly 8 feet of water in my house. A direct hit would actually be better for us.

Starting tomorrow at 4pm, Terrebonne Parish (where I live) will begin mandatory evacuations. Lafourche(borders to our East) and St. Mary(borders to our West, and current projected bullseye) Parishes started today.

Hoping this projection is wrong, but maybe our luck is about to run out.
Katrina passed about 55 miles East of my hometown, and Rita around 200 miles to our West. I hope this fucker doesn't split the difference.

 

[Best Buckeye]

Sure hope that works out for you Nutriaitch.