Mothra;907388; said:
Glad to hear. I have an aunt who is from Jamaica but she's on the northern end of the Island and things didn't get too horrible there.
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- Thread starter Mike80
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Glad to hear. I have an aunt who is from Jamaica but she's on the northern end of the Island and things didn't get too horrible there.
Dean is now a Category Five Hurricane with winds up to 160 MPH.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 210034
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT64 KNHC 210034
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Thankfully Dean didn't have a chance to really re-strengthen after chewing through the Yucatan peninsula. Now that Dean is ashore, the threat is over for the time being.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 221646
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO NEAR THE TOWN
OF TECOLUTLA...JUST EAST OF GUTIERREZ ZAMORA AND ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AT ABOUT 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF DEAN AT LANDFALL WAS 100 MPH...160
KPH....CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT64 KNHC 221646
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO NEAR THE TOWN
OF TECOLUTLA...JUST EAST OF GUTIERREZ ZAMORA AND ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AT ABOUT 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF DEAN AT LANDFALL WAS 100 MPH...160
KPH....CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Another week, another tropical system....
Dr. Jeff Masters on WeatherUnderground.com said:The Hurricane Hunters have reported back from the tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, 94L, and found a closed circulation with top winds of 30 mph. This qualifies 94L as a tropical depression, and NHC will likely upgrade it to Tropical Depression Six in their 5pm update. This storm has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean by Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show a considerable improvement in organization occurred today, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center of circulation, and upper level outflow now visible on both the north and south sides.
Water vapor satellite loops show the presence of a large amount of dry air to the north of 94L, but the storm has generated enough thunderstorm activity to moisten the surrounding environment, which should speed development. Wind shear is a favorable 10 knots over 94L, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days over the storm's expected path through the Caribbean, according to the 18Z SHIPS model. As seen in the latest microwave satellite image from 12:49pm EDT (Figure 1), the heaviest thunderstorm activity is on the south side of the system. Trinidad and Tobago will get the heaviest rains from 94L, although the northern coast of South America plus the island of Grenada could also see some heavy rains.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of 94L taken at 12:49pm EDT 8/31/07. The heaviest rain (red colors) is just east of the island of Tobago. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
Both the 12Z GFDL and the 18Z SHIPS intensity models forecast that 94L will intensify into a hurricane by 72 hours from now, as it tracks through the Central Caribbean. The model consensus has a track just north of the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao), then west-northwestward through the Caribbean. By Monday night, most of the models have 94L approaching the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The GFDL is further north, taking 94L into Belize on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane. The future strength of 94L depends critically upon how close it passes to the South American coast over the next two days. The Southeastern Caribbean just north of the South American coast is a climatologically unfavorable region for tropical cyclones, as they tend to pull dry continental air off of South America into their circulations. Many tropical cyclones passing through this region of the Caribbean die or become severely weakened. If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question. However, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the region, and I don't see any troughs of low pressure capable of swinging 94L to the north coming.
The next Hurricane Hunter mission will be 8am EDT Saturday. The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 312049
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30
KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Advisory Archive
WTNT41 KNHC 312049
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30
KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Advisory Archive
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
Mothra;907388; said:
Best Buckeye;907361; said:
I was.
BuckeyeMike80;907352; said:
Thank you god.
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ScriptOhio;916920; said:
Where were you, Script? Ocho Rios, Montego Bay, Negril or somewhere else? How bad was the storm where you were?
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ScriptOhio;916920; said:
Where were you?
I have an aunt who lives on the north side of the Island.....
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
BB73;916927; said:
BuckeyeMike80;916992; said:
I was on the north shore near Runaway Bay, about an hour drive east of Montego Bay, (see map):
I believe that the conditions there were just below a category one hurricane (which is maximum sustained wind speed: 74-95 miles per hour, damage category: minimal, and approximate storm surge: 3-5 feet). The worst only lasted about 3 hours (5:30 PM until 8:30 PM Sunday). There was very minimal damage to the buildings. Lots of tree damage. I saw three fairly large palm trees on the property that were just "snapped". Rocks and extra sand were blown everywhere along the beachfront areas. One of the swim up bars (pictured below) was totally filled with sand and rocks:
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 010900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FELIX. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
PASSED OVER GRENADA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 12.4N 62.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 50 KT...INLAND
I don't think this storm will get anywhere near the strength of Dean but it should still be a major hurricane.
WTNT41 KNHC 010900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FELIX. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
PASSED OVER GRENADA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 12.4N 62.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 50 KT...INLAND
I don't think this storm will get anywhere near the strength of Dean but it should still be a major hurricane.
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ok long day yesterday and essentially Felix explosively strengthened all night long. It went from a medium strength Tropical Storm to a major hurricane (with winds greater than 115 MPH) in a bit more than 24 hours.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.
THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 70.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
It's possible that Felix will be nearly as strong as Dean was at landfall. Normally storms don't strengthen at this rate for longer than 24 hours, but Felix has continued to get stronger today so who knows at this point.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.
THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 70.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
It's possible that Felix will be nearly as strong as Dean was at landfall. Normally storms don't strengthen at this rate for longer than 24 hours, but Felix has continued to get stronger today so who knows at this point.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY. FELIX
HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A
SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE
TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE. THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS
A SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES. I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING
BEHIND IT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY
3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AGAIN...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.6N 72.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 135 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 135 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY. FELIX
HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A
SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE
TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE. THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS
A SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES. I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING
BEHIND IT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY
3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AGAIN...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.6N 72.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 135 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 135 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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