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Game Thread tOSU vs. Maryland (Homecoming), Sat 10/10 @ 12p ET, BTN

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matcar said:
What has you so confident?
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Maryland
I've seen Maryland play twice now and they just aren't very good. At anything. Additionally they don't play with an overwhelming amount of fire/heart. Lastly, they just took a physical ass whipping from scUM and those kind of games have a cumulative effect on teams like Maryland.

OSU
I honestly think OSU is due to fix a lot of the self inflicted nonsense. This isn't a case of Bollman trying to Dave people to death with Lydell Ross at RB and blindly hoping our offense will break 21. There is legitimate, intelligent reason for optimism here. I don't do the fanboy thing.
  1. Head Coach has a track record of success and a clear desire to score 100 a game if he can. He doesn't play defense with his offense as a matter of philosophy.
  2. The players have the talent and a track record of success.
  3. The misfires are well documented but like anything self inflicted, they can go away as fast as they appear.
Lastly, from experience, when the majority of people start being over pessimistic or optimistic about a team it's time to be on the other side of it in terms of betting. Maryland is an injury depleted, talent starved, boring mess of a team that has given up 48, 45 and 28 points to BGSU, WVU and scUM respectively. They have been outscored by an average margin of 29 points against those 3 teams and now an Ohio State team that, even with a sputtering offense, is averaging 35 ppg is only favored by 32.

So to cover, people are willing to bet money that Maryland will go on the road and not only score more than they have averaged against those 3 teams but in turn keep OSU under what they have averaged giving up to those three teams. That is being overly pessimistic about OSU and letting that overwhelm the realities of assessing Maryland imo.

Nothing is certain, but I think there is much better than a 53% chance that Maryland isn't going to do that and if you have a better than 53% chance at -110 odds you have a positive EV bet.

OSU high 40's, low 50's
Maryland 10 or less

If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong but I feel this is a good spot to get your money in.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Maryland
I've seen Maryland play twice now and they just aren't very good. At anything. Additionally they don't play with an overwhelming amount of fire/heart. Lastly, they just took a physical ass whipping from scUM and those kind of games have a cumulative effect on teams like Maryland.

OSU
I honestly think OSU is due to fix a lot of the self inflicted nonsense. This isn't a case of Bollman trying to Dave people to death with Lydell Ross at RB and blindly hoping our offense will break 21. There is legitimate, intelligent reason for optimism here. I don't do the fanboy thing.
  1. Head Coach has a track record of success and a clear desire to score 100 a game if he can. He doesn't play defense with his offense as a matter of philosophy.
  2. The players have the talent and a track record of success.
  3. The misfires are well documented but like anything self inflicted, they can go away as fast as they appear.
Lastly, from experience, when the majority of people start being over pessimistic or optimistic about a team it's time to be on the other side of it in terms of betting. Maryland is an injury depleted, talent starved, boring mess of a team that has given up 48, 45 and 28 points to BGSU, WVU and scUM respectively. They have been outscored by an average margin of 29 points against those 3 teams and now an Ohio State team that, even with a sputtering offense, is averaging 35 ppg is only favored by 32.

So to cover, people are willing to bet money that Maryland will go on the road and not only score more than they have averaged against those 3 teams but in turn keep OSU under what they have averaged giving up to those three teams. That is being overly pessimistic about OSU and letting that overwhelm the realities of assessing Maryland imo.

Nothing is certain, but I think there is much better than a 53% chance that Maryland isn't going to do that and if you have a better than 53% chance at -110 odds you have a positive EV bet.

OSU high 40's, low 50's
Maryland 10 or less

If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong but I feel this is a good spot to get your money in.
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Well that is certainly a fair analysis. If we don't cover, Would you think it's fair to say that this team has developed a pattern/trend and that the problems might be more deep rooted?
 
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matcar said:
Well that is certainly a fair analysis. If we don't cover, Would you think it's fair to say that this team has developed a pattern/trend and that the problems might be more deep rooted?
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Obviously a trend and I will be even more concerned that they couldn't right the ship vs a team like Maryland but I won't be at the point of thinking it's an impossible task for this year.

If they are still sputtering in late November then I'll be officially wondering about deeper issues.

I'm still trusting the coach(s) on this one
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Obviously a trend and I will be even more concerned that they couldn't right the ship vs a team like Maryland but I won't be at the point of thinking it's an impossible task for this year.

If they are still sputtering in late November then I'll be officially wondering about deeper issues.

I'm still trusting the coach(s) on this one
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I guess I'm always in the camp of trust the coaches, but that doesn't mean that I don't think there are deeper issues here.
 
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matcar said:
Well that is certainly a fair analysis. If we don't cover, Would you think it's fair to say that this team has developed a pattern/trend and that the problems might be more deep rooted?
Click to expand...
I hope the only way we do not cover is if we have a huge lead and have non starters in the game and Maryland gets a cheap TD (s) because of it...
 
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matcar said:
I guess I'm always in the camp of trust the coaches, but that doesn't mean that I don't think there are deeper issues here.
Click to expand...

There may well be, I just personally don't think so....yet.

One thing I think I see sometimes, and wonder about quite a bit, is Cardale not checking out of running plays when the D is clearly showing a numbers advantage. Either he honestly doesn't see it or isn't allowed to change the play. Either way, if indeed is even the case, would be more than a little troubling.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
There may well be, I just personally don't think so....yet.

One thing I think I see sometimes, and wonder about quite a bit, is Cardale not checking out of running plays when the D is clearly showing a numbers advantage. Either he honestly doesn't see it or isn't allowed to change the play. Either way, if indeed is even the case, would be more than a little troubling.
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Well as you've noted, we have some time to "figure it out" thanks to a Charmin soft schedule at the moment. ...hoping for the same type of growth we experienced last year.
 
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