I think the number of transfers could dramatically decrease with the buyout rule. It’s one thing to flip a kid like Beau Atkinson and then sign him to an OSU NiL, it’s much different when you also must buyout his NIL contract from UNC. Now imagine trying to buyout a kid like Luke Wafle who’s getting a deal that could make a 7 figure buyout, and then you still need to offer your own NIL deal. Idk how many are going to test that, and idk how many programs and their NiL collectives want to pay that much constantly for what are going to be unknowns.
Also, if a kid wants to transfer after 1 year at a school and can’t even crack the starting lineup at his first school, do you want to take the next crack at kid? You’re putting him in a new system, dealing with even more issues off the field in a new environment (away from family, classes, city, dumb decisions with a lot of money, etc)