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tOSU @ Penn State, Sat Oct 29, 12pm, FOX

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MD Buckeye said:
Definitely don't agree with their logic.

Sure, Penn State's D was on the field for a lot of plays, but that didn't make the game seem more lopsided than it was. The game was just that, lopsided.

If anything, their D made the game less lopsided with the pick 6 before half. Take that away & it's even uglier.

Not to mention, after Penn State was leading at the half, TTUN's three TD drives in the second half were for a total of 11 plays (4, 1, & 6).
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I got the sense watching (and I believe put in a thread here at the time) that the Penn State coordinators were outmatched. I also saw some of the social media x and o gurus say that Penn State’s D coordinator does a bunch of risky stuff hoping to get a big play, but leaving them fundamentally unsound and vulnerable, which obviously didn’t work out well for them against a basic running attack that wasn’t trying to do anything fancy in UM.

Point being, their analysis almost never factors in deficient schemes or coaching, either, which was seemingly a big factor against UM and something they are ignoring in their analysis of this game.

Again, I like what they do and it definitely has value—which is nice it’s predicting a fairly comfortable win—I just think they ignore certain factors. It makes sense for them to do that, though. Being an expert on all factors for every game would be nearly impossible. Talking very specifically about the numbers their model pops out each week allows them to add value to the coverage of all the big games.

Even with that said, their conclusion was that their model doesn’t predict Ohio State pushing PSU to the breaking point of a blowout like UM did. Well, with the factors they ignored (bad or at least vulnerable coaching/scheme and bad QB play) here’s hoping we do see that breaking point.
 
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Buckeye86 said:
I really like their analysis but the things they don’t talk about surprises me sometimes. They talk about how Penn State’s defense was on the field a crazy number of plays and wore down throughout the game against Michigan, which made the Michigan score more lopsided than it actually was.

But they fail to bring up the reason the defense was on the field so much was Penn State’s offense sucking, and very specifically Clifford being awful, which, last time I checked, will also be a factor in this game.
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I think Clifford finally comes back down to earth against us and plays like the Clifford he really is. If I recall correctly, Clifford got his against us scrambling and extending plays. With the blitzes Knowles brings we bracket so well and keep contain (or at least we seem to for my untrained eye). Box him in and close, and I don't think he is going to go off on his old home state school like in years' past. He'll hit a few plays on us but I think he is in for a long day overall, especially when we put up a bunch of points and make him press for big plays.

However, I do think PSU is a pretty solid team despite the shitshow against ttun. Their defense has several very good defensive players and I think you could see a slower offensive start much like against Iowa. But we just have too much firepower for that to shut down. PSU has the home field advantage but no under the lights white out to try to make up the gap like previous years. I see a win in the ballpark of 49-17. Fuck Ped State and I want that to be the point of emphasis I end with.
 
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RB07OSU said:
I think Clifford finally comes back down to earth against us and plays like the Clifford he really is. If I recall correctly, Clifford got his against us scrambling and extending plays. With the blitzes Knowles brings we bracket so well and keep contain (or at least we seem to for my untrained eye). Box him in and close, and I don't think he is going to go off on his old home state school like in years' past. He'll hit a few plays on us but I think he is in for a long day overall, especially when we put up a bunch of points and make him press for big plays.

However, I do think PSU is a pretty solid team despite the shitshow against ttun. Their defense has several very good defensive players and I think you could see a slower offensive start much like against Iowa. But we just have too much firepower for that to shut down. PSU has the home field advantage but no under the lights white out to try to make up the gap like previous years. I see a win in the ballpark of 49-17. Fuck Ped State and I want that to be the point of emphasis I end with.
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Just need to not turn the ball over and not give Penn State free points, that's where they could hurt us. I don't think their offense is constantly beating us with sustained longer drives. But if we give them the ball in good field position a few times, that's when this game becomes dangerous.
 
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Confession; I didn’t watch that much of the game with the weasels. Probably because every time I looked psu’s d line was getting pushed back and out of the way.

if the game plan was to make McCarthy throw to win, it didn’t work.

if they made adjustments to stop the run, I didn’t see them.

I was surprised by both of those.

finally, I’ve long felt that the bucks beat PSU with depth. The ones for both teams seemed pretty even, but the bucks had more left in the tank in the 4th quarter. This year I’m thinking that the bucks and the weasels have more depth and better starters than PSU. Their program has clearly slipped.
 
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RB07OSU said:
I think Clifford finally comes back down to earth against us and plays like the Clifford he really is. If I recall correctly, Clifford got his against us scrambling and extending plays. With the blitzes Knowles brings we bracket so well and keep contain (or at least we seem to for my untrained eye). Box him in and close, and I don't think he is going to go off on his old home state school like in years' past. He'll hit a few plays on us but I think he is in for a long day overall, especially when we put up a bunch of points and make him press for big plays.

However, I do think PSU is a pretty solid team despite the shitshow against ttun. Their defense has several very good defensive players and I think you could see a slower offensive start much like against Iowa. But we just have too much firepower for that to shut down. PSU has the home field advantage but no under the lights white out to try to make up the gap like previous years. I see a win in the ballpark of 49-17. Fuck Ped State and I want that to be the point of emphasis I end with.
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In his last two games against us, he was more effective than we want to see him most definitely. I'm hoping that the schemes that Knowles throws at people that the changing looks will get him back in Pick-6 mode where he belongs. That, and our Offense has no issues right out of the gate.
 
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Just all about our run game really. The rest I'm confident in to be honest.

If the run game stalls then CJ tends to press and when he does that he takes chances which isn't good.

The bright side of Iowa is our coaches now see how teams like Penn State and TTUN will play us. Now we just need to counter what we are seeing.

I feel good about our defense especially vs an OL of Penn State thats just average.

If we can run the ball we will win. If we can't it'll be another close game in the 4th.
 
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Bestbuck36 said:
In his last two games against us, he was more effective than we want to see him most definitely. I'm hoping that the schemes that Knowles throws at people that the changing looks will get him back in Pick-6 mode where he belongs. That, and our Offense has not issues right out of the gate.
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I think a big part of that is related to having no real defense since Haf. We could out-athlete poor teams easily, but anyone with a pulse showed well.

In Knowles, I trust.
 
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Captain Buckeye said:
The bright side of Iowa is our coaches now see how teams like Penn State and TTUN will play us. Now we just need to counter what we are seeing.
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Agreed. I see this as like the VaTech game, except that we didn't adjust in-game and lost it, but used what we learned to counter the Eagle defenses that were thrown at us the rest of the way.
 
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