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shetuck
What do you need water for, Sunshine?
we are the one and only moxie-maker U…
seems that the more we try and break the opposing QB, the more he goes all incredible hulk on us.
i lost count of how many times i thought clifford was down for the count on saturday, limps off the field and returns to the game in the next series slinging it like nothing happened.
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DSA for the Nebraska Game
When you go by averages, this game is as close on paper as Las Vegas says. If you're wondering, "which Nebraska will show up?", a deeper look into the numbers gives a hint. There is good news and there is bad news. But before we get to that, a few numbers.
Differential Scoring Offense
Ohio State: 1.872 (points scored for every point opponents give up to everyone else)
Nebraska: 1.193
Differential Scoring Defense
Ohio State: 0.769
Nebraska: 0.758
While Ohio State ranks higher than Nebraska in Scoring Defense (#19 vs #33), DSA makes Nebraska look a little better on defense. DSA agrees with traditional stats that the Buckeyes look a good deal better on offense. That trend continues when you examine yardage.
Differential Total Offense
Ohio State ypg: 1.486 (yards gained for every yard opponents give up to everyone else)
Ohio State ypp: 1.541 (yards per play for every ypp opponents give up to everyone else)
Nebraska ypg: 1.195
Nebraska ypp: 1.206
Differential Total Defense
Ohio State ypg: 0.947
Ohio State ypp: 0.893
Nebraska ypg: 0.886
Nebraska ypp: 0.854
The Buckeyes rank one spot ahead of Nebraska in total defense, but in DSA, the Cornhuskers again look better, this time by what might be a statistically significant margin. In fact, in terms of yardage the Buckeye defense is looking perilously close to average. That unfortunate trend continues when you look at passing.
Differential Passing Offense
Ohio State ypg: 1.570 (yards gained for every yard opponents give up to everyone else)
Ohio State ypa: 1.498 (yards per attempt for every ypa opponents give up to everyone else)
Ohio State PE: 1.446 (points of Passing Efficiency for every point in PE opponents allow everyone else)
Nebraska ypg: 1.156
Nebraska ypa: 1.329
Nebraska PE: 1.158
Differential Passing Defense
Ohio State ypg: 1.134
Ohio State ypa: 0.939
Ohio State PE: 0.953
Nebraska ypg: 0.996
Nebraska ypa: 0.852
Nebraska PE: 0.938
Here, both teams are only a little above average in pass defense. It could be argued that Ohio State's pass defense is very average, based on DSA. While the Buckeye offense continues to torch teams through the air, the defense has really not improved much against the pass, with all of their conference opponents having posted passing efficiency within 8% one way or the other of their season average. The same can NOT be said for the rushing defense, however.
Differential Rushing Offense
Ohio State ypg: 1.360
Ohio State ypc: 1.521
Nebraska ypg: 1.256
Nebraska ypc: 1.141
Differential Rushing Defense
Ohio State ypg: 0.686
Ohio State ypc: 0.727
Nebraska ypg: 0.755
Nebraska ypc: 0.803
Here is the one area where Ohio State looks better on defense than the Cornhuskers do. Moreover, they have improved significantly against the run since the beginning of the season. After giving up 36.5% more yards per carry than the Ducks have managed against everyone else, the Buckeyes have improved to the point the last 3 opponents have been held to an aggregate of 0.324 yards per carry for each ypc given up to everyone else.
Thus far I have remarked primarily on the Ohio State defense, how they are good vs scoring, average vs passing, and have become excellent against the run. But what can we make of Nebraska? The Huskers, it turns out, are a team headed in two different directions.
Though the trend is masked by the disparate levels in offensive and defensive capabilities of their opponents, DSA rips off the mask and shows what's really happening. The Husker offense, in spite of appearances, is actually getting better at scoring, at least according to DSA. In spite of 4 interceptions throw to the Boilermakers, Martinez STILL had a higher passing efficiency than the Boilers typically give up, and the Huskers still scored over 40% more points than the Boilers typically give up. This is the continuation of a trend; Nebraska was below average on scoring offense against their first 4 FBS opponents, but have been very good to spectacular against the last 4. (OK, not as good as the Buckeyes have been, but much better than their season long averages would suggest.)
The Husker defense though, is a different story. While they had a very forgettable opening performance against Illinois, the Nebraska defense proceeded to play very good defense, DSA-wise, against their next 4 opponents. Against each of their last 3 opponents, they have done worse every week however.
Can an improving Husker offense going against an improving Buckeye defense keep up with an angry Buckeye offense going against a Nebraska defense whose Blackshirts are beginning to fray?
Doesn't seem likely, though for what it's worth, the DSA prediction isn't far off from the Vegas line:
*DSA prediction, not my prediction*
Ohio State 36 to 41 points
Nebraska 21 to 23 points
When you go by averages, this game is as close on paper as Las Vegas says. If you're wondering, "which Nebraska will show up?", a deeper look into the numbers gives a hint. There is good news and there is bad news. But before we get to that, a few numbers.
Differential Scoring Offense
Ohio State: 1.872 (points scored for every point opponents give up to everyone else)
Nebraska: 1.193
Differential Scoring Defense
Ohio State: 0.769
Nebraska: 0.758
While Ohio State ranks higher than Nebraska in Scoring Defense (#19 vs #33), DSA makes Nebraska look a little better on defense. DSA agrees with traditional stats that the Buckeyes look a good deal better on offense. That trend continues when you examine yardage.
Differential Total Offense
Ohio State ypg: 1.486 (yards gained for every yard opponents give up to everyone else)
Ohio State ypp: 1.541 (yards per play for every ypp opponents give up to everyone else)
Nebraska ypg: 1.195
Nebraska ypp: 1.206
Differential Total Defense
Ohio State ypg: 0.947
Ohio State ypp: 0.893
Nebraska ypg: 0.886
Nebraska ypp: 0.854
The Buckeyes rank one spot ahead of Nebraska in total defense, but in DSA, the Cornhuskers again look better, this time by what might be a statistically significant margin. In fact, in terms of yardage the Buckeye defense is looking perilously close to average. That unfortunate trend continues when you look at passing.
Differential Passing Offense
Ohio State ypg: 1.570 (yards gained for every yard opponents give up to everyone else)
Ohio State ypa: 1.498 (yards per attempt for every ypa opponents give up to everyone else)
Ohio State PE: 1.446 (points of Passing Efficiency for every point in PE opponents allow everyone else)
Nebraska ypg: 1.156
Nebraska ypa: 1.329
Nebraska PE: 1.158
Differential Passing Defense
Ohio State ypg: 1.134
Ohio State ypa: 0.939
Ohio State PE: 0.953
Nebraska ypg: 0.996
Nebraska ypa: 0.852
Nebraska PE: 0.938
Here, both teams are only a little above average in pass defense. It could be argued that Ohio State's pass defense is very average, based on DSA. While the Buckeye offense continues to torch teams through the air, the defense has really not improved much against the pass, with all of their conference opponents having posted passing efficiency within 8% one way or the other of their season average. The same can NOT be said for the rushing defense, however.
Differential Rushing Offense
Ohio State ypg: 1.360
Ohio State ypc: 1.521
Nebraska ypg: 1.256
Nebraska ypc: 1.141
Differential Rushing Defense
Ohio State ypg: 0.686
Ohio State ypc: 0.727
Nebraska ypg: 0.755
Nebraska ypc: 0.803
Here is the one area where Ohio State looks better on defense than the Cornhuskers do. Moreover, they have improved significantly against the run since the beginning of the season. After giving up 36.5% more yards per carry than the Ducks have managed against everyone else, the Buckeyes have improved to the point the last 3 opponents have been held to an aggregate of 0.324 yards per carry for each ypc given up to everyone else.
Thus far I have remarked primarily on the Ohio State defense, how they are good vs scoring, average vs passing, and have become excellent against the run. But what can we make of Nebraska? The Huskers, it turns out, are a team headed in two different directions.
Though the trend is masked by the disparate levels in offensive and defensive capabilities of their opponents, DSA rips off the mask and shows what's really happening. The Husker offense, in spite of appearances, is actually getting better at scoring, at least according to DSA. In spite of 4 interceptions throw to the Boilermakers, Martinez STILL had a higher passing efficiency than the Boilers typically give up, and the Huskers still scored over 40% more points than the Boilers typically give up. This is the continuation of a trend; Nebraska was below average on scoring offense against their first 4 FBS opponents, but have been very good to spectacular against the last 4. (OK, not as good as the Buckeyes have been, but much better than their season long averages would suggest.)
The Husker defense though, is a different story. While they had a very forgettable opening performance against Illinois, the Nebraska defense proceeded to play very good defense, DSA-wise, against their next 4 opponents. Against each of their last 3 opponents, they have done worse every week however.
Can an improving Husker offense going against an improving Buckeye defense keep up with an angry Buckeye offense going against a Nebraska defense whose Blackshirts are beginning to fray?
Doesn't seem likely, though for what it's worth, the DSA prediction isn't far off from the Vegas line:
*DSA prediction, not my prediction*
Ohio State 36 to 41 points
Nebraska 21 to 23 points
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He could
My intuition tells me that he had his career day against TTUN, that the Buckeye defense will apply the lessons learned from their struggles with PSU, and that @alexhortdog95 is going to get exactly what he wants from this matchup.
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alexhortdog95
Eye to the future, honoring the past
Not just me, mind you.
This is from a reporter here for the OWH that has covered the Huskers for years.
A reporter.
This is the mindset of most around here.
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alexhortdog95
Eye to the future, honoring the past
Here's a stat.
Guess how many snaps the Husker DEFENSE played against Purd'ont last week?
87. The defense was on the field for 87 snaps last week.
Mind.
BLOWN.
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What's weird about that one is that PU was 6 for 17 on 3rd down conversions in that game, which is below their season average. When you hold a team below their average 3rd down conversion rate, AND you hold them to 116 rushing yards on 41 carries (2.83 ypc), AND you get nearly 4.5 ypc yourself (not great, but a lot better than the other guys), AND you have 9.28 yards per attempt through the air to only 5.18 for the other guys...
Yeah... the time of possession, the number of plays, and ultimately the final score come down to one number. The number four. Four interceptions. Three all year up until that game. Then 4.
And you're still on the opposing team's message board the week of the game.
Respect. Nebraska fans, you chief among them, deserve better.
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
HOT OFF THE PRESS: NEBRASKA GAME POSTER
Entire article: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...126399/hot-off-the-press-nebraska-game-poster
Entire article: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...126399/hot-off-the-press-nebraska-game-poster
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This stuff is just brilliant. When I was wagering as a job, or the majority of one, I had to do most of this stuff by hand without anywhere near the chops you have for it. There were two other values I looked at also which was Turnover Margin and I always gave points for Home/Road advantage. With last years results thrown in not sure there was such an advantage but TM certainly comes into play. A team that is say +1.5 vs a .5 per game advantage was usually worth 4 to 6 points. Anomalies happen though which sucks but if Martinez and Corn have anywhere near -4 TO's on Saturday, the game will be a 30pt romp
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