Sounds like a cue for DaddyBigBucks to do another one of his excellent stats analysis posts, along the line of how many yards more per game did we rush for over the opponent's rush defense for the year (minus our game). Then again, knowing DBB, he probably has.
I'll say this, if we rush for 150+ yards in this game there's no way we lose.
Here you go...
from page 16...
http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/showthread.php?p=353715&highlight=statistical#post353715
Edit: Hmmm... Now that I look at it, I should probably break it down by rushing and passing. Give me a minute.
Edit: Just as I thought; I already had a spread sheet for this. I'll just give the expected outputs and spare you the details.
Predicting OSU's Output
OSU average rushing offense minus ND differential rushing defense:
134.12 yards and 3.6 yards per carry
OSU average passing offense minus ND differential passing defense:
246.93 yards and 8.89 yards per attempt
ND average rushing defense PLUS OSU differential rushing offense:
148.92 yards and 3.81 yards per carry
ND average passing defense PLUS OSU differential passing offense:
248.65 yards and 9.48 yards per attempt
So OSU's expected Offensive Output is:
Rushing: 134 to 149 yards @ 3.6 to 3.81 ypc
Passing: 247 to 249 yards @ 8.89 to 9.48 ypa
Predicting ND's Output
ND average rushing offense minus OSU differential rushing defense:
27.46 yards and 1.25 yards per carry
ND average passing offense minus OSU differential passing defense:
289.7 yards and 7.66 yards per attempt
OSU average rushing defense PLUS ND differential rushing offense:
83.92 yards and 2.17 yards per carry
OSU average passing defense PLUS ND differential passing offense:
312.12 yards and 8.18 yards per attempt
So ND's expected Offensive Output is:
Rushing: 27 to 84 yards @ 1.25 to 2.17 ypc
Passing: 290 to 312 yards @ 7.66 to 8.18 ypa
I apologize if I've posted this elsewhere already...
Anyway, it does look like ND will be able to move the ball through the air; which is as most of us expect.
Down in the red-zone, where the passing zones get small and deep is no longer deep; their inability to do anything on the ground will spell trouble (for them).
I should add for completeness, that this analysis compares each team to the other teams their opponents played. Thus, factoring in the opponents' schedule strength gives an important correction to the analysis; though it is difficult to quantify. I have done this analysis (yes, I am that much of a geek) and find that you must actually adjust these numbers in OSU's favor. The total adjustment is about 20 yards for rushing and 30 yards for passing IIRC, but it is difficult at best to determine how to allocate the correction between offense and defense.
Now, forget the spreadsheet crap and I'll tell you what I really think. OSU decided late in the season (Illinois and NW games) that if a team can't run, they'll play to stop the pass. They let NW run a little and they let Illinois try to (snicker), and they shut down their passing games big-time.
Look for the same strategy vs. the Irish. If ND has as much trouble running the ball as this analysis suggests they will; forget about it.
I just hope that Laura Quinn doesn't hold what he's about to do to Brady against him.
