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Let There Be A Rematch
Last Update: 11/20/2006 6:39:09 PM
Thats what the BCS poll says heading into Week 13, and personally, I agree with the rankings. After watching all the top teams play this season, there is no doubt that Ohio State and Michigan are the two best teams in the country.
,However, the difference between Michigan and USC for second place is only .007. That number very easily could change after this weekend when No. 5 Notre Dame goes to Southern Cal.
In my opinion, the Trojans must defeat Notre Dame by 30 points or more to warrant any consideration for No. 2, since the Wolverines stomped all over the Irish in South Bend, 47-21. I hope thats how the pollsters and the computers see it, but for some reason, I am very pessimistic.
In any event, Ohio State will make up one-half of the championship game. The Wolverines went toe-to-toe with the best team in the land IN Columbus and almost had a chance to drive for the go-ahead score late in the game, had it not been for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Troy Smith. The Buckeyes signal-caller had thrown an incomplete pass on third and 15, but the penalty led to an automatic first down, on which Ohio State capitalized to score the decisive touchdown.
I'm not saying the Wolverines would have won the game, or that they are the better team. Heck, they caught more breaks than the Buckeyes did. Michigan just deserves a rematch on a neutral field since it has had a better season than any of the so-called other candidates.
The main and perhaps only challenger to the Maize and Blue, is the Trojans, who downed California, 23-9, after being outplayed for most of the first three quarters. I give Southern Cal a ton of credit for pulling it out in the final 15 minutes, but if one looks at the entire season, the Trojans have been nowhere near as strong as Michigan.
The Wolverines won all but one of their games by a touchdown or more, with the only seven-point win coming AT Penn State. The Trojans played three straight games during the season where they failed to win by more than a touchdown, two of them coming at home to Arizona State and Washington. One important aspect of both clubs, that hopefully the rankings will take into account, is that a loss to Oregon State should be more damaging than getting beat on the road by the number one team in the country.
As mentioned last week, the Irish have zero chance at playing Ohio State, even if they beat USC, since they got creamed on their own turf by Michigan earlier in the year. The only other team with a chance is Florida. The Gators find themselves only .042 behind Michigan, giving them a realistic shot at moving up to No. 2 with a USC loss and wins over Florida State and Arkansas. The one problem for the Gators is that they have been even less impressive than the Trojans have this season.
We'll all just have to wait one more week to see what happens, as the USC- Notre Dame contest will carry the most weight when the final BCS rankings come out in a couple of weeks.
NEWS AND NOTES
Kudos to Rutgers for a fantastic year, but the fairy tale season ended at Cincinnati last Saturday. Coach Greg Schiano has done a masterful job recruiting over the years and it showed, as the Scarlet Knights finished 7-4 in his fifth year on the job and are 9-1 so far in 06.
The Bearcats were ready and it showed from the opening gun, as they cruised to the 30-11 victory. Looking ahead to 2007, Cincinnati is certainly one team to watch, especially against the spread. After compiling a 12-19-1 ATS mark from 2003-05, the Cats have covered six of their 10 games this season and have gone 6-1-1 in their last eight contests.
Their defense has allowed only 16 points per game in the last seven games, and that number drops to 11 if the loss to West Virginia is removed. The Bearcats also have played what could be the hardest schedule of all 119 Division 1-A teams, as they squared off against four top 10 clubs in Ohio State, Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers. And that doesn't even include Virginia Tech!
Cincinnatis roster is loaded with underclassmen, particularly on a defense that had five sophomores start this season. It only loses three seniors from a unit that is allowing only 106 yards rushing per game, 74 yards less than last years defense. Coach Mark Dantonio has the Bearcats going in the right direction in his third season at the helm, and with a little more offense next year, Cincinnati could be the dark horse of 2007.
I know its early, but another team to keep in mind for next year SU and ATS is Arizona. Coach Mike Stoops finally has his team believing in itself, and it shows in the Pac-10 standings. The Wildcats have been underdogs the last three weeks and have three outright victories, at Oregon and Washington State, along with the upset win at home over California.
Arizona has been an extremely solid play in the last two years, going 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. The Wildcats won't be getting too many points next year, as they will find themselves favored more times than not. Only one offensive starter, wide receiver, Syndric Steptoe, is a senior and if cornerback Antoine Cason stays in Tuscon for his final season, the Cats will have 10 of their 11 defensive starters returning in 07.
Coach Stoops has a long way to go match his brothers record at Oklahoma, but next season will be the first step in starting the comparisons.
THIS WEEKS TOP PLAY
Arizona State travels to Tucson to take on Arizona. The Wildcats are 2-5 SU against the Sun Devils in the last seven meetings, but the Cats have had miserable teams in recent seasons. The only year they were a .500 team was 1999, and that match-up came in Tempe, a 42-27 ASU win.
I've already mentioned how well Arizona has been playing as of late, and the opposite holds true for Arizona State. The Sun Devils were poised to challenge USC and Cal this season, but turmoil hit in training camp when Coach Dirk Koetter flip-flopped in naming his starting quarterback. Rudy Carpenter eventually was designated the starter, and Sam Keller transferred to Nebraska.
Since getting blown out by the Bears, Ducks and Trojans, the Sun Devils have gone 3-2. They have struggled on the road, getting blown out at Oregon State and barely getting by Washington in overtime. Carpenter and the rest of the offense only accounted for 264 yards in the loss to UCLA last week and will find the going just as difficult vs. Arizona. One final nugget: The Wildcats are 11-2 SU at home against ASU since 1960 when going into the game with an above .500 record.
Take Arizona minus the points.
In other action, go with South Carolina, SMU, Mississippi State, Nevada and Memphis.
This weeks top 10:
1) Ohio State, 107.5; 2) Texas, 103; 3) USC, 102.5; 4) BYU, 101.5; 5) Michigan, 101; 5) West Virginia, 101; 7) LSU, 100.5; 8) Oklahoma, 100; 9) Louisville, 100; 10) Virginia Tech, 99.5.
