The Polls (AP, Coaches, & CFP, etc.)

[OSU_Buckguy]

osu has an opportunity not only to distinguish itself from oklahoma but also an opportunity to compare itself favorably to notre dame. our demolition of ttun has minimized nd's marquee win, and the team now has a chance to diminish nd's win over northwestern. i don't see the committee placing osu 3rd over nd, but it will certainly be a discussion point if the buckeyes claim a statement victory this weekend.


providing bama beats georgia and clemson beats pitt...

if oklahoma loses and osu wins, we're obviously in.

if oklahoma wins narrowly/ugly and osu wins comfortably, i think osu is in.

if oklahoma dominates, i think they're in regardless of what osu does.

if both oklahoma and osu win in a comparably narrow fashion, i think oklahoma is in but it will be almost too close to call. either result would not surprise me.



and, yes, i do think osu not receiving the benefit of the doubt last year positively affects osu receiving the benefit of the doubt this year. this may be the deciding factor -- albeit a notion wholly dismissed by the committee -- if oklahoma and osu win in comparable fashion.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

If the committee has OU and OSU with identical records, and both conference champs, it would be stupid to decide based on the 1 loss they each had rather than the quality of the 12 wins. You seem to think the one loss is more important than the wins. I think for this committee, when losses are equal, they have to look at who has the best wins and decide based on that factor.

I'm telling you what the committee will most likely look at (and what most of the "pundits" think). But, if you want to look at "quality of wins":

1. We let a shitty Oregon State team put up 31 points on us, on our own field.
2. We beat a truly mediocre (and at-the-time highly-overrated) TCU by only 12 points, while OU stomped them by 25.
3. We had to rally late to beat a good, but not great, 3-loss PSU team by one point.
4. We struggled in the first half, at home, against Indiana, who finished 5-7.
5. We struggled for three quarters, at home, against a mediocre Minnesota team who finished 6-6.
6. We trailed Nebraska, who finished 4-8, by five points at halftime, at home, and won by only five.
7. We almost (and should have) lost to Maryland. Had the QB not missed a wide-open receiver on the 2-pt conversion, we wouldn't be having this conversation. After scoring 51 against us, they piled up a whole three points at PSU the following week.

We have one great win (probably one of the most impressive wins throughout all of FBS for this entire season), but an even worse loss (points wise) to a mediocre Purdue team who had to win on Saturday just to get to 6-6.

Oklahoma has one loss, a close one to top-10 Texas. While they did survive a scare at West Point, and had to out-score TTU, Okie St, and WVU, they dominated in a few more games than we did. And the fact that we did not jump them despite our demolition of then-#4 Michigan and Oklahoma's 3-point barnburner against then-#12 WVU, tells me the committee still thinks Oklahoma is still a better overall team (albeit slightly).

 

[BuckeyeBiz]

osu has an opportunity not only to distinguish itself from oklahoma but also an opportunity to compare itself favorably to notre dame. our demolition of ttun has minimized nd's marquee win, and the team now has a chance to diminish nd's win over northwestern. i don't see the committee placing osu 3rd over nd, but it will certainly be a discussion point if the buckeyes claim a statement victory this weekend.


providing bama beats georgia and clemson beats pitt...

if oklahoma loses and osu wins, we're obviously in.

if oklahoma wins narrowly/ugly and osu wins comfortably, i think osu is in.

if oklahoma dominates, i think they're in regardless of what osu does.

if both oklahoma and osu win in a comparably narrow fashion, i think oklahoma is in but it will be almost too close to call. either result would not surprise me.



and, yes, i do think osu not receiving the benefit of the doubt last year positively affects osu receiving the benefit of the doubt this year. this may be the deciding factor -- albeit a notion wholly dismissed by the committee -- if oklahoma and osu win in comparable fashion.

I agree with your assessment however IMO if both teams win by around the same margin Saturday I believe the committee will pick tOSU because they have a slightly less dysfunctional defense and tOSU is a slightly bigger brand. We’ve got a bigger alumni following and frankly we’ve got a lot more haters that will be tuned in to root against the Buckeyes. I thought the Buckeyes making up enough ground to catch OK was improbable but The Game happened! All that being said either decision will be difficult to rationalize for the committee spokesman.

 

[OSU_Buckguy]

I agree with your assessment however IMO if both teams win by around the same margin Saturday I believe the committee will pick tOSU...

as noted, this would not surprise me. and i think we're going to get our answer to this particular hypothetical tomorrow.

 

[DZ83CK]

and yet 9-2 lsu was ranked 7th while 10-1 osu was ranked 10th heading into last weekend.


since you started your post with this statement, i have only myself to blame for reading what followed.

LSU was never going to make the Playoffs after they lost that second game. You disagree? If they are still ahead of OSU this poll, they must think the B1G is no longer a power conference.

 

[DZ83CK]

I'm telling you what the committee will most likely look at (and what most of the "pundits" think). But, if you want to look at "quality of wins":

1. We let a shitty Oregon State team put up 31 points on us, on our own field.
2. We beat a truly mediocre (and at-the-time highly-overrated) TCU by only 12 points, while OU stomped them by 25.
3. We had to rally late to beat a good, but not great, 3-loss PSU team by one point.
4. We struggled in the first half, at home, against Indiana, who finished 5-7.
5. We struggled for three quarters, at home, against a mediocre Minnesota team who finished 6-6.
6. We trailed Nebraska, who finished 4-8, by five points at halftime, at home, and won by only five.
7. We almost (and should have) lost to Maryland. Had the QB not missed a wide-open receiver on the 2-pt conversion, we wouldn't be having this conversation. After scoring 51 against us, they piled up a whole three points at PSU the following week.

We have one great win (probably one of the most impressive wins throughout all of FBS for this entire season), but an even worse loss (points wise) to a mediocre Purdue team who had to win on Saturday just to get to 6-6.

Oklahoma has one loss, a close one to top-10 Texas. While they did survive a scare at West Point, and had to out-score TTU, Okie St, and WVU, they dominated in a few more games than we did. And the fact that we did not jump them despite our demolition of then-#4 Michigan and Oklahoma's 3-point barnburner against then-#12 WVU, tells me the committee still thinks Oklahoma is still a better overall team (albeit slightly).

I appreciate that you are finally analyzing the 12/13 of the resume as opposed to the 1/13. But they went to OT with Army in Norman. The committee did not already put out their poll after the UM and WVU wins. I have a hard time believing they will suddenly flip the two teams, but they still could logically do that this week. It is tomorrow or never for OSU to jump a 1-loss OU.

 

[OSU_Buckguy]

LSU was never going to make the Playoffs after they lost that second game.

that still doesn't explain why the committee ranked a 2-loss lsu a whole 3 spots ahead of a 1-loss osu. it's pretty darn clear that osu was ranked as the worst 1-loss team (other than utah state) because they valued osu's horrible loss to a middling team as extremely damaging.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I appreciate that you are finally analyzing the 12/13 of the resume as opposed to the 1/13. But they went to OT with Army in Norman. The committee did not already put out their poll after the UM and WVU wins. I have a hard time believing they will suddenly flip the two teams, but they still could logically do that this week. It is tomorrow or never for OSU to jump a 1-loss OU.

No, I was taking into account all games, but unfortunately when comparing one-loss teams, the tendency is to compare the two losses, vice comparing the 22 wins (assuming both teams are 11-1).

 

[DZ83CK]

that still doesn't explain why the committee ranked a 2-loss lsu a whole 3 spots ahead of a 1-loss osu. it's pretty darn clear that osu was ranked as the worst 1-loss team (other than utah state) because they valued osu's horrible loss to a middling team as extremely damaging.

Disagree that who the loss was against meant that much. I would say OSU lacked the quality of wins that LSU had up until this past weekend. They probably also do have a stigma against the B1G in comparison with the SEC.

 

[kujirakira]

and yet 9-2 lsu was ranked 7th while 10-1 osu was ranked 10th heading into last weekend.

SEC is the exception to the rule that proves it?

 

[OSU_Buckguy]

SEC is the exception to the rule that proves it?

i'm sure that's some of it, but the committee still had 1-loss osu ranked two spots below 1-loss washington state (whose 3-point loss was to a usc team that was 5-6 at the time of the last poll). the only reason that wsu was ranked ahead of osu was because osu's loss was far, far worse.

again, this is yet another confirmation that the committee does not value all losses as the same and values some losses as black death.

 

[kujirakira]

i'm sure that's some of it, but the committee still had 1-loss osu ranked two spots below 1-loss washington state (whose 3-point loss was to a usc team that was 5-6 at the time of the last poll). the only reason that wsu was ranked ahead of osu was because osu's loss was far, far worse.

again, this is yet another confirmation that the committee does not value all losses as the same and value some losses as black death.

Yea I generally agree with you... just taking the opportunity to point that of course the rules don't apply to the SEC.
This Committee is a joke.
I don't mind if we get left out for OU... there's only 4 spots, 5 conferences... and ND poisoning the well... but I'll be livid if we both get left out for ND, Clemson, and Georgia.

 

[OSU_Buckguy]

I'll be livid if we both get left out for ND, Clemson, and Georgia.

as livid as i'll be if that happens, i can guarantee that i'm much, much more livid that we lost by 29 points to a team that doesn't have a winning record... just like i was much, much more livid after we lost by 31 points to a team that ended up having 5 losses... just like i was much, much more livid after we were pasted 31-0 in the last playoff.

in regards to the sec getting the benefit of the doubt, maybe it's time everyone else steps up to stop the conference that has won 9 of the last 12 titles.

 

[DiamondBuck]

I'm telling you what the committee will most likely look at (and what most of the "pundits" think). But, if you want to look at "quality of wins":

1. We let a shitty Oregon State team put up 31 points on us, on our own field.
2. We beat a truly mediocre (and at-the-time highly-overrated) TCU by only 12 points, while OU stomped them by 25.
3. We had to rally late to beat a good, but not great, 3-loss PSU team by one point.
4. We struggled in the first half, at home, against Indiana, who finished 5-7.
5. We struggled for three quarters, at home, against a mediocre Minnesota team who finished 6-6.
6. We trailed Nebraska, who finished 4-8, by five points at halftime, at home, and won by only five.
7. We almost (and should have) lost to Maryland. Had the QB not missed a wide-open receiver on the 2-pt conversion, we wouldn't be having this conversation. After scoring 51 against us, they piled up a whole three points at PSU the following week.

We have one great win (probably one of the most impressive wins throughout all of FBS for this entire season), but an even worse loss (points wise) to a mediocre Purdue team who had to win on Saturday just to get to 6-6.

Oklahoma has one loss, a close one to top-10 Texas. While they did survive a scare at West Point, and had to out-score TTU, Okie St, and WVU, they dominated in a few more games than we did. And the fact that we did not jump them despite our demolition of then-#4 Michigan and Oklahoma's 3-point barnburner against then-#12 WVU, tells me the committee still thinks Oklahoma is still a better overall team (albeit slightly).

While you are likely correct in your assessment, the committee hasn't released rankings that account for these latest results.

 

[TampaBuckeyes]

Why is the loss the only thing that matters? Do they have a win as good as what we just did to Michigan?

It’s proven the committee puts quality of losses over quality of wins. It’s because it’s easier. There are 0-2 data points. The wins involve comparing 10-12 data points which is much complicated. This is fed by the sports writers that refer to ND Clemson and bama as zero loss teams and okie osu and Georgia as 1 loss teams. You could say (assuming ccg wins) Bama and Clemson are 13 win teams and osu okie and ND are 12 win teams. Or you could take out fcs teams and say that all 5 have 12 wins. Take out group of 5 teams and suddenly Clemson and bama have the least number of wins. Nope. Much easier to compare the losses.