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The Polls (AP, Coaches, & CFP, etc.)

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Bama has/is slated to play 3 ranked teams. Ohio State plays 6.
Hey! It''s all over Espin... There's a new pollster and it's ...............................................................Donnie!
 
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Nutriaitch said:
i’m pretty sure UGA’s loss all but eliminates any chance of SEC getting two in.
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Actually, it greatly increases the SEC's chances to get two in.

Scenario:

Alabama or LSU goes 12-0 in regular season (very likely), earns #1 ranking

Georgia wins remaining regular season games, beating "top-10" Florida and Auburn (not quite so likely, but still very possible); Georgia earns top-6 ranking

Georgia wins SEC championship game over #1 Bama/LSU in a close game (quite possible), moves into top-4

The SEC probably gets two teams into the playoffs: 12-1 Georgia (lets say #3 in CFP poll); 12-1 Bama/LSU (lets say #4 in CFP poll)

I could see this scenario happening even if Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all finish 13-0 (with Ohio State most likely to get the shaft).

Here's another scenario (or really a version of the above scenario):

#1 Alabama wins out, beats #2 LSU in close game.

Georgia wins out, moves into top six in CFP poll

#6 Georgia beats #1 Alabama in close game in SEC championship; Georgia moves up to #2 in CFP poll, Alabama falls to #3

#2 LSU loses to #1 Alabama in close game, but finishes 11-1 with wins over three top-15 teams (Texas, Florida, Auburn).

The SEC possibly gets three teams into the playoffs: 12-1 Georgia; 12-1 Alabama; 11-1 LSU

This scenario won't happen unless at least two of following teams lose at least one game: Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State.

And if Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Penn State each lose at least one game, then your CFP championship could be this....

#1 Georgia
#2 Alabama
#3 Louisiana State
#4 Notre Dame

This is the absolute Doomsday Scenario, and the one that will get the Playoffs expanded to 6 or 8 teams within weeks of the season ending.
 
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TS10HTW said:
Bucks win out and they’re in.
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Agreed. LJB has gone off the deep end on that. Love him but suggesting tOSU doesn’t make the playoffs when undefeated is bananas. Especially this year with Wiscy looking strong. Meanwhile it’s possible that PSU willbe undefeated when they arrive in Columbus. If that is the case and we win out, there is no chance the good guys don’t go to playoffs.
 
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Nigel Tufnel said:
Agreed. LJB has gone off the deep end on that. Love him but suggesting tOSU doesn’t make the playoffs when undefeated is bananas. Especially this year with Wiscy looking strong. Meanwhile it’s possible that PSU willbe undefeated when they arrive in Columbus. If that is the case and we win out, there is no chance the good guys don’t go to playoffs.
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I’m thinking the same thing (RE: Wiscy and ped both being undefeated when tOSU plays them) plus the opportunity to knock off a potential top 15ish scum team on the road immediately followed by a matchup with a top 20ish B1G west team in Indy...that résumé should get the 1 seed.
 
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An undefeated Buckeye team will finish at least #2 in the final playoff ranking. I don't believe anybody but an undefeated SEC champion could get ranked ahead of a a Buckeye team that adds wins over Penn State, TTUN on the road in a rivalry game, and 2 wins over an excellent Wiscy team (or a win over Wiscy and a Minny team that beats Wiscy). They'll put an undefeated Clemson in the final 4, but the committee would lose credibility if Clemson is ahead of undefeated tOSU. And Oklahoma won't be jumping a Buckeye team that doesn't lose.

Scenarios are only worth worrying about if the Buckeyes get a loss, or if one wants to speculate on the other 3 teams.
 
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TS10HTW said:
Bucks win out and they’re in.
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Nigel Tufnel said:
Agreed. LJB has gone off the deep end on that.
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This misses the point, to me. Pretty much everyone agrees that OSU will almost certainly be in the playoff if they win out, minor arguments aside whether the chance of them being left out is 0% or 2%.

The point is that Georgia can still say that - if they win out, they're almost definitely in the playoff. Despite already having a pretty bad loss. If OSU had a loss right now, they wouldn't still be in control of their playoff chances to anywhere near that extent. Membership in the SEC gives you a regular season mulligan; membership in the BigTen, or any other conference, doesn't. You can argue that that's justified, you can argue that it isn't. I'm not sure you can persuasively argue that it isn't true.
 
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zincfinger said:
This misses the point, to me. Pretty much everyone agrees that OSU will almost certainly be in the playoff if they win out, minor arguments aside whether the chance of them being left out is 0% or 2%.

The point is that Georgia can still say that - if they win out, they're almost definitely in the playoff. Despite already having a pretty bad loss. If OSU had a loss right now, they wouldn't still be in control of their playoff chances to anywhere near that extent. Membership in the SEC gives you a regular season mulligan; membership in the BigTen, or any other conference, doesn't. You can argue that that's justified, you can argue that it isn't. I'm not sure you can persuasively argue that it isn't true.
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I think we all get that SEC bias means that they get the benefit of the doubt that no other conference gets. As a one loss team outside that conference, you run a massive risk of missing playoffs. But LJB specifically stated that an unbeaten tOSU could miss the playoffs. I believe that is a absurd notion any year, but especially crazy this year.
 
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If they put a 1 loss non SEC champ in the playoff over a undefeated P5, that should cause a blow up of the current playoff system. It basically would be the committee saying that the 1st loss doesnt count for SEC teams, because SEC!!! Which every non SEC force should throw a gigantic fit over, and rightfully so.
 
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My issue with citing prior CFP selection committees' habits to forecast this year is that some people seem to be ignoring the fact the selection committee has never omitted an unbeaten P5 champ. Not once.

So unless and until that happens, it's really not worth worrying about.

2014 - Alabama, Oregon, Florida St, Ohio St
Florida St was the only unbeaten. All four were conference champs. 1-loss Baylor and TCU finished 5th and 6th.

2015 - Clemson, Alabama, MSU, OU
Clemson was the only unbeaten. All four were conference champs. 1-loss Iowa and Ohio St finished 5th and 7th.

2016 - Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Washington
Alabama was the only unbeaten. Three of the four were conference champs. 2-loss Penn St and Michigan finished 5th and 6th.

2017 - Clemson, OU, Georgia, Alabama
No unbeaten teams. Three of the four were conference champs. 2-loss Ohio St and 1-loss Wisconsin finished 5th and 6th.

2018 - Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, OU
Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame were unbeaten. OU was also conference champ. 2-loss Georgia and 1-loss Ohio St finished 5th and 6th.​

Of the 20 past selections, only 3 were not P5 conference champs. 2016 1-loss Ohio St was selected ahead of 2-loss Penn St. 2017 1-loss Alabama was selected ahead of 2-loss Ohio St. And finally, 2018 Notre Dame got a slot for going undefeated.

There is no reason to believe the criteria is any different now than it has been since this thing started. Don't lose, and if you do, don't get blown out by 4 possessions to some shit ass 7 win team.
 
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Dryden said:
the fact the selection committee has never omitted an unbeaten P5 champ. Not once.
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Here's the scenario:

Georgia beats Alabama in SEC Championship in a close game. Oklahoma, Ohio State, Clemson, and Notre Dame win out. The potential playoff teams are:

13-0 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
13-0 Oklahoma (Big XII champ)
13-0 Clemson (ACC champ)
12-1 Georgia (SEC champ)
12-1 Alabama (SEC runner-up)
11-1 Notre Dame (Independent)

No way that the SEC champ gets left out, so Georgia is in despite the bad loss to South Carolina.

No way that 12-1 Alabama gets left out (they never get left out), and the perception will still be that they are the best team despite the loss to UGa.

No way 13-0 Oklahoma gets left out with the most explosive offense in the country, especially with the Tua vs. Hurts story line.

No way 13-0 Clemson gets left as the defending national champion.

So that leaves Ohio State vs Notre Dame in some NY6 bowl. Yippee!

If you think I'm wrong, tell me who gets left out of my scenario - Alabama, Oklahoma, or Clemson - and why.
 
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LordJeffBuck said:
Here's the scenario:

Georgia beats Alabama in SEC Championship in a close game. Oklahoma, Ohio State, Clemson, and Notre Dame win out. The potential playoff teams are:

13-0 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
13-0 Oklahoma (Big XII champ)
13-0 Clemson (ACC champ)
12-1 Georgia (SEC champ)
12-1 Alabama (SEC runner-up)
11-1 Notre Dame (Independent)

No way that the SEC champ gets left out, so Georgia is in despite the bad loss to South Carolina.

No way that 12-1 Alabama gets left out (they never get left out), and the perception will still be that they are the best team despite the loss to UGa.

No way 13-0 Oklahoma gets left out with the most explosive offense in the country, especially with the Tua vs. Hurts story line.

No way 13-0 Clemson gets left as the defending national champion.

So that leaves Ohio State vs Notre Dame in some NY6 bowl. Yippee!

If you think I'm wrong, tell me who gets left out of my scenario - Alabama, Oklahoma, or Clemson - and why.
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Alabama gets left out. The end.
 
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