Game Thread THE GAME: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (11/18/06)

[BB73]

As the season progresses, if TSUN and tOSU both continue to win, questions will arise about how they've been ranked over the years. I'm trying to anticipate many of those questions and answer them in this post.

NOTE - all of these answers are based on AP poll rankings only.

Q - Have tOSU and TSUN ever been ranked #1 and #2 at the same time?

A - Yes, but never when they've played each other. The only time the teams have been #1 and #2 at the same time occurred in the polls of 9-14-76 and 9-21-76, when TSUN was #1 and tOSU was #2.

EDIT - TSUN has now been ranked #2 in the AP poll behind #1 tOSU, in the 10-15 and 10-22-2006 polls.

Q - What's the highest that TSUN has been ranked when tOSU was ranked AP #1?

A - #3, in 4 different polls. When tOSU made their first appearance at #1 (10-12-1942) in their first NC year, TSUN was #3. The other time TSUN was #3, behind a #1 tOSU team, was for 3 straight polls in 1974 (polls dated 10-14, 10-21, 10-28).

EDIT - TSUN has now been ranked #2 in the AP poll behind #1 tOSU, in the 10-15 and 10-22-2006 polls.


Q - What's the highest that the teams have been ranked at the time of The Game?

A - A #1 vs #4 matchup has occurred 3 times. In both 1973 and in 1975, tOSU was #1 and TSUN was #4 when they played. 1973 was the famous 10-10 tie, after which tOSU was voted to the Rose Bowl; and 1975 was a 21-14 tOSU victory in Ann Arbor to compete an undefeated regular season. In 1997, a #1 TSUN team downed a #4 tOSU team 20-14.


Q - How many times has tOSU been AP #1 when playing TSUN?

A - Four times, with a 1-0 record in 1954 in Columbus, and 1-1-1 for games in Ann Arbor: the 12-24 loss in 1969, the 10-10 tie in 1973, and the 21-14 win in 1975.


Q - How many times has TSUN been AP #1 when playing tOSU?

A - Three times, all TSUN wins: 21-0 in Ann Arbor in 1947, 13-3 in Columbus in 1948, and the 20-14 win in 1997.


Q - What's the highest finish for both teams combined in any year?

A - In 1974, TSUN finished #3 and tOSU ended #4. There have been 15 times when boths teams finished in the top 10. That includes 7 of the first 8 years of the 10-year war ('69-'76, except '71), four years before that period ('42, '44, '49, '64) and four years since ('83, '86, '02, '03).

 

[lvbuckeye]

Overall scoring margin: Michigan, 170-72, Ohio State, 162-49.

wow... the ND game had me fooled...i thought TSUN's D was better than that...

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

wow... the ND game had me fooled...i thought TSUN's D was better than that...

Let's expound upon that. I've listed each opponent for both teams, and their scoring average of all games other than the games against OSU/scUM. For example, Northern Illinois averaged exactly 35 points a game against their other four opponents (game against us not included):

OHIO STATE
No Ill: 12 points (35.00 ppg) -23.00
Texas: 7 points (50.25 ppg) -43.25
Cincy: 7 points (20.75 ppg) -13.75
PSU: 6 points (30.25 ppg) -23.25
Iowa: 17 points (28.00 ppg) -11.00

-114.25 total points below (-22.85 ppg)

MICHIGAN
Vanderbilt: 7 points (27.50 ppg) -20.50
Cent Mich: 17 points (27.00 ppg) -10.00
Notre Dame: 21 points (32.50 ppg) -11.50
Wisconsin: 13 points (33.73 ppg) -20.73
Minnesota: 14 points (36.00 ppg) -22.00

-84.73 total points below (-16.95 ppg)

Our "young" defense is holding our opponents to nearly a TD more under their scoring average than is scUM defense holding their opponents.

Keep in mind Tate was out for the Syracuse game, so Iowa's scoring there suffered. Both OSU and scUM played big-name opponents, but I'd say Texas is clearly better than Notre Dame and our holding them to 7 points on their field is just as impressive as holding ND to 21 on theirs. Our conference combo of PSU and Iowa is better than theirs of Wiscy and Minny. NIU would handle Vandy. The only edge I may give scUM is CMU over UC...barely, if at all.

 

[bucknut11]

Stewie Mandel from SI...

Has a No. 1 team ever played the No. 2 team three times in a season? It could happen this year with Ohio State. Also, have Ohio State and Michigan ever matched up at No. 1 vs. 2.
-- Andrew Sadler, Ann Arbor, Mich.

Andrew is presumably referring to the increasingly plausible scenario that both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines will run the table and meet as undefeated No. 1 and 2 teams on Nov. 18. And he's suggesting that Ohio State, having already played one 1-vs.-2 game against Texas, could potentially play in two more if this were to happen and the Buckeyes were to win, thus reaching the national-title game. To answer your questions, no team has ever played in three such games in one season. Using AP rankings, six have played in two (Florida State in 1993, Oklahoma in '87, Nebraska in '71, Texas in '63, Army in '45 and Notre Dame in '43). Also, Michigan and Ohio State have never met while ranked No. 1 and 2 (they last met as undefeated foes in 1973, playing to a 10-10 tie).

Of course, just the mere fact that we're talking about this now pretty much assures it isn't going to happen. So we should probably stop.

Uh oh....


Consider this hypothetical: Ohio State and Michigan make it to the final game of the season ranked 1-2, perhaps as the only two undefeated teams. Have the two top-rated teams ever met in the last regular game of the season?
-- Mike Rogan, Chandler, Ariz.

As you may recall, a very similar scenario occurred in 1996, when No. 2 Florida State beat No. 1 Florida in the last "regular season" game, then rematched in the Sugar Bowl, with the Gators winning the title. It wasn't exactly the same, however, because Florida played another game in between (the SEC championship), as did two other teams, Nebraska and Ohio State, whose losses allowed the Gators to rise back up to No. 3. (No. 2 Arizona State lost to the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.)

Nos. 1 and 2 have met in the last regular-season game several times, most notably the 1969 Arkansas-Texas "Game of the Century," but remember, prior to the mid-'60s for AP and mid-'70s for coaches', the last poll was taken before the bowl games. And even after that, the polls rarely played a role in bowl matchups. So this would be the first case where a 1-vs.-2 game truly "preempted" the title game. But again, that's only if it actually happens, which is a long way away from reality, so I don't know why we're even having this discussion....


Given that you have a vote on the fate of college teams, what would you do as a voter if Michigan and Ohio State meet Nov. 18 and Michigan wins? Would you put Ohio State No. 2 and Michigan No. 1 to get a rematch in the BCS championship game? I would love to see Michigan play Ohio State for all the marbles, not just a Big Ten championship.
-- Brad Worthington, Toronto

OK, now you're really being presumptuous. Not that I have a say in this (AP isn't part of the formula anymore), but if I did, I would never predetermine how I'm going to vote in a poll before the game is even played. Plus, I think we learned our lesson about that with Oklahoma a few years ago. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but there'd have to be a real dearth of other deserving teams that didn't lose their last game of the season.

But c'mon, people. Hasn't anyone stopped to consider the possibility that one of these teams might actually lose before Nov. 18?

 

[lvbuckeye]

well, i know it's way too early, but i've taken a page from DBB's book and weighed the defensive production relative to opponent's offensive strength so far...

Ohio State ranks 5th Nationally in scoring D giving up 9.8 points per game. The five teams they played have an average offensive rank of 47.8. The best team they played is Texas who's averaging 41.6 pts per game and ranked 4th, Northern Illinois at 29th, Iowa at 55th, Penn State at 58th and Cincinnati at 93rd.

when you factor out the games against Ohio State, the Buckeyes' opponents are averaging 47.8 PPG for Texas, 35.5 for NIU, 28 for Iowa, 30.25 for Penn State and 20.75 for Cincy. against everyone else, Ohio State's opponents average 32.46 PPG, and the Buckeyes have held them to 9.8 PPG, or 22.66 points FEWER than their average...

Michigan is ranked 21st in defense at 14.4 pts. per game. The 5 teams they have played are Vandy at 67th, Central Mich at 60, ND at 34, Wiscy at 37 and Minny at 25 for an average rank of 44.6.

similarly, when you factor out the games against the Blue, Michigan's opponents are averaging 27.5 PPG for Vandy, 26.65 for CMU, 32.5 for ND, 33.65 for Wiscy, and 36 for Minny. against everyone else, Ms opponents are averaging 31.28 PPG, and M has held them to 14.4 PPG or 16.88 points FEWER than their average...

based on relative defensive strength, the projected score of The Game right now is Ohio State 18, M 11.34...

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

well, i know it's way too early, but i've taken a page from DBB's book and weighed the defensice production relative to opponent's offensive strength so far...

Ohio State ranks 5th Nationally in scoring D giving up 9.8 points per game. The five teams they played have an average offensive rank of 47.8.
The best team they played is Texas who?s averaging 41.6 pts per game and ranked 4th, Northern Illinois at 29th, Iowa at 55th, Penn State at 58th and Cincinnati at 93rd.

when you factor out the games against Ohio State, the Buckeyes' opponents are averaging 47.8 PPG for Texas, 35.5 for NIU, 28 for Iowa, 30.25 for Penn State and 20.75 for Cincy. against everyone else, Ohio State's opponents average 32.46 PPG, and the Buckeyes have held them to 9.8 PPG, or 22.66 points FEWER than their average...

Michigan is ranked 21st in defense at 14.4 pts. per game. The 5 teams they have played are Vandy at 67th, Central Mich at 60, ND at 34, Wiscy at 37 and Minny at 25 for an average rank of 44.6.

similarly, when you factor out the games against the Blue, Michigan's opponents are averaging 27.5 PPG for Vandy, 26.65 for CMU, 32.5 for ND, 33.65 for Wiscy, and 36 for Minny. against everyone else, Ms opponents are averaging 31.28 PPG, and M has held them to 14.4 PPG or 16.88 points FEWER than their average...

based on relative defensive strength, the projected score of The Game right now is Ohio State 18, M 11.34...

Uh, lv, check two posts above yours...

 

[BB73]

Stewie Mandel from SI...

Has a No. 1 team ever played the No. 2 team three times in a season? It could happen this year with Ohio State. Also, have Ohio State and Michigan ever matched up at No. 1 vs. 2.
-- Andrew Sadler, Ann Arbor, Mich.

Andrew is presumably referring to the increasingly plausible scenario that both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines will run the table and meet as undefeated No. 1 and 2 teams on Nov. 18. And he's suggesting that Ohio State, having already played one 1-vs.-2 game against Texas, could potentially play in two more if this were to happen and the Buckeyes were to win, thus reaching the national-title game. To answer your questions, no team has ever played in three such games in one season. Using AP rankings, six have played in two (Florida State in 1993, Oklahoma in '87, Nebraska in '71, Texas in '63, Army in '45 and Notre Dame in '43). Also, Michigan and Ohio State have never met while ranked No. 1 and 2 (they last met as undefeated foes in 1973, playing to a 10-10 tie).

Mandel had two errors in this one answer. He missed the 1986 Miami team, which beat #1 Oklahoma in an AP poll #1 vs. #2 early in the season, and lost their #1 ranking to #2 Penn St. in the 'combat fatigues' Fiesta Bowl.

Also, TSUN was 'undefeated' in 1975 (with two ties) when they played an undefeated tOSU squad (who won 21-14).

I sent him an e-mail letting him know - we'll see if he puts the corrections in his future columns.

If he read BP, he would have known both of those facts, they've been posted here in the last couple of weeks.

 

[lvbuckeye]

Uh, lv, check two posts above yours...

damn... good stuff, Mili. the numbers aren't exact due to a slightly different approach we took (i used the NCAA website minus whatever score) but since we're within a few hundredths of a point on either side, i think it only adds to the validity of our conclusions...

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

Or maybe you're both bad at math

 

[osugrad21]

CPD

Collision course: OSU vs. Michigan


Sunday, October 08, 2006
A look at what Michigan and Ohio State have coming up as they head toward a possible undefeated showdown for the Big Ten championship and an automatic BCS berth Nov. 18 in Columbus.

No. 1 Ohio State (6-0)
Sept. 2 N. Illinois 35-12
Sept. 9 at Texas 24-7
Sept. 16 Cincinnati 37-7
Sept. 23 Penn St. 28-6
Sept. 30 at Iowa 38-17
Oct. 7 Bowling Green 35-7
Oct. 14 at Mich. St. 3:30 p.m.
Oct. 21 Indiana Noon
Oct. 28 Minn. 3:30 Nov. 4 at Illinois TBD
Nov. 11 at N'western TBD
Nov. 18: Michigan at Ohio State, 3:30, WEWS Ch. 5.

No. 6 Michigan (6-0)
Sept. 2 Vanderbilt 27-7
Sept. 9 C. Michigan 41-17
Sept. 16 at N. Dame 47-21
Sept. 23 Wisconsin 27-13
Sept. 30 at Minnesota 28-14
Oct. 7 Michigan St. 31-13
Oct. 14 at Penn State 8 p.m.
Oct. 21 Iowa TBD
Oct. 28 Northwestern Noon
Nov. 4 Ball State TBD
Nov. 11 at Indiana TBD
Nov. 18: Michigan at Ohio State, 3:30, WEWS Ch. 5.

Matchup spotlight
Michigan WR Mario Manningham vs. Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins
There might not be anyone who can cover Manningham, who caught two touchdowns Saturday, giving him nine on the season and eight in his last four games. But Jenkins will be the Buckeye to give it a shot. He fared pretty well against Texas' Limas Sweed early in the season, but he hasn't faced anyone like Manningham, a sophomore from Warren, Ohio. Last season Manningham caught four passes for 64 yards against the Buckeyes.
- Doug Lesmerises

 

[osugrad21]

Link

Michigan knows it has big tests ahead

Posted: October 8, 2006

Associated Press

ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- Star running back Mike Hart rolled his ankle, had it taped up and could have played the fourth quarter of Michigan's 31-13 win over Michigan State.
But the Wolverines didn't need him. "There was no point" in coming back in, Hart said, citing the three-touchdown cushion his team had at the time.
Chances are, the Wolverines will need Hart to take the field for all four quarters the next two weeks.
Michigan, which is off to its first 6-0 start in nine years and rose two spots to No. 4 in the latest Associated Press poll, faces a pair of stiff tests -- at Penn State on Saturday and at home against No. 15 Iowa on Oct. 21.
"Our schedule is very tough, so we have to come out every week and play our best game, because any team in this conference can beat us," quarterback Chad Henne said. "The schedule is very difficult, so emotionally we have to be up."
Michigan was more than ready for its in-state rival on Saturday in front of 111,349 at the Big House.
Henne threw three touchdown passes, and Hart ran for 122 yards on 22 carries as the Wolverines improved to 3-0 in Big Ten play.
Michigan State (3-3, 0-2) dropped its third straight this season and fifth in a row against Michigan. Things don't get any easier for the Spartans, who will be visited by No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday.
"We have half a season left. That's what we have to look forward to. We're not packing anything in," said Jehuu Caulcrick, who got the bulk of the carries (14) with leading rusher Javon Ringer out with a knee injury.
Caulcrick managed 29 yards, including a 1-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. It marked the first time this season that the Wolverines allowed a rushing touchdown.
The Michigan rush defense, which entered the game tops in the nation, allowed only 60 yards, while the Wolverine offense recorded 211 on the ground.
Michigan ran the ball 42 times. Henne threw only 17 passes, but three of those were for scores. Mario Manningham caught two TD passes, giving him eight in his last four games.
Henne finished 11-of-17 for 140 yards and no interceptions. His counterpart, Drew Stanton, was 20-of-35 for 252 yards and two interceptions. He didn't throw a touchdown pass, but did score on a 2-yard quarterback draw in the fourth quarter that provided the final score.
Stanton, a senior who played the game with bruised ribs, but said they were not an issue, again was unable to lead the Spartans to a win against their rival, something he said during the week that he badly wanted to do.
Instead, Michigan's players took home the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the ninth time in the last 11 meetings between the teams. The last time Michigan State beat Michigan was in East Lansing in 2001. The Spartans haven't won in Ann Arbor since 1990.
"It means a lot to me and the team," said Michigan senior linebacker Prescott Burgess. "This is my last year. I haven't lost to them since I've been here."

 

[osugrad21]

Link

MARK SNYDER: So far, so good for Wolverines

October 9, 2006
BY MARK SNYDER
FREE PRESS SPORTS WRITER



Michigan wideout Mario Manningham makes one of his two touchdown catches Saturday against Michigan State. Manningham scored on 41-yard and 27-yard TD receptions, and leads Wolverines receivers with nine touchdowns this season. (RASHAUN RUCKER/Detroit Free Press)
Saturday's game

• What: No. 4 Michigan (6-0, 3-0) at Penn State (4-2, 2-1).
  
  When: 8 p.m. Saturday, Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa.
  
  TV: ABC (Channel 7 in Detroit).
  
  Line: Michigan by 7 1/2 .
  
  RESULTS/SCHEDULE
  
  DATE OPPONENT RESULT Sept. 2 Vanderbilt W, 27-7 Sept. 9 Central Michigan W, 41-17 Sept. 16 at Notre Dame W, 47-21 Sept. 23 Wisconsin W, 27-13 Sept. 30 at Minnesota W, 28-14 Oct. 7 Michigan State W, 31-13
  DATE OPPONENT TIME TV Saturday at Penn State 8:00 ABC Oct. 21 Iowa TBA TBA Oct. 28 Northwestern Noon TBA Nov. 4 Ball State TBA TBA Nov. 11 at Indiana TBA TBA Nov. 18 at Ohio State 3:30 ABC

As Michigan flips the calendar to the season's second half at 6-0, let's flash back to our three dominant preseason questions.
? The running game: The Wolverines were coming off a season where they finished ninth in the Big Ten in rushing. After six games, Michigan is No. 1 in the conference at 195.67 yards per game and 17th nationally. The credit is shared by a healthy and consistent offensive line -- all five starters have played all six games -- and a healthy Mike Hart, who simply does things other backs cannot. Michigan has a heavy run offense, opening all three Big Ten games with a Hart-centric first quarter. The potential problem could be his carry load. Already Hart has 157 carries through six games, which doubled would be the highest total of his U-M career. Aside from the Wisconsin game, U-M is not turning over the ball on offense, either, tied sixth nationally in turnover margin.
? The pass rush: Michigan's sack total rose fast, 17 in the first four games, as the defensive line was getting a major push. That has slowed with only one sack in the past two weeks combined as teams have adjusted to the pressure and kept in an extra blocker. If the Wolverines' current total doubles to 34 for the regular season, that would be a major success and likely force more turnovers. Linebacker David Harris, now a potentially high NFL draft pick, has covered up the unit's few mistakes.
? Last season's hangover: The Michigan players have clearly put 2005's struggles out of their minds, and six straight wins, including a nationally televised spanking of Notre Dame, have erased fans and experts' memories, as well. Coach Lloyd Carr maintains after a good or bad season, "this is a new team." The most interesting aspect? There's little talk about the Wolverines being a rebound or surprise team this year. It's more about them living up to the potential they've had.
Three second-half questions
? 1. Can the secondary hold up? With U-M already No. 1 in the nation in rush defense, teams are abandoning their running game early. While no Wolverine wishes that to change, it's beginning to strain the secondary. Teams are not scoring at will on Michigan but are moving the ball through the air. No secondary will be like U-M's in 1997, halting everything thrown. But U-M will have to cut down on the quick-passing, first-down marches that Michigan State, Minnesota and Notre Dame each flashed.
? 2. What about mental fatigue the next two weeks? No other Big Ten team is facing a five-game stretch as grueling as U-M's with Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Spartans, followed by this week's trip to Penn State and the Oct. 21 home game against Iowa. The Wisconsin game could be the only one of the five to be played early (noonand the weekly focus is difficult to maintain. The Nittany Lions will be motivated for revenge, and Iowa will be tough after a late return Saturday night/Sunday morning from State College. The benefit is a three-week breather before Ohio State, when U-M can play its depth. The OSU game will be hyped, but the next two weeks determine the season's success.
? 3. Will the big plays endure? Unusually, Michigan seems to only throw the ball for touchdowns. That's no problem, but what happens if someone schemes to take it away? Can U-M break touchdown-scoring runs just as frequently? The key may not be Mario Manningham -- whose touchdown pace could approach Desmond Howard's 1991 season record -- but Adrian Arrington, who will see more one-on-one coverage. Also, at some point, Michigan will need more from the kickoff returns, currently ranked 94th nationally.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

Morelli said last week he believes Michigan is better than Ohio State. He wasn't backing off from that comment after the Minnesota win.

"I played against Ohio State, and they're a great football team. Don't get me wrong," Morelli said. "Just from what I've been watching on TV, (Michigan) has a lot of big-play weapons. They've got (wide receiver Mario) Manningham, who can run by anybody. Throw it up; he's a tall receiver. Mike Hart in the backfield. That big, monster offensive line. They cause problems for people."

 

[jwinslow]

Mario Manningham may be out for a while with a knee injury (lots of sources, no confirmation yet).

Discuss it here, in MM's thread

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Link

Morelli said last week he believes Michigan is better than Ohio State. He wasn't backing off from that comment after the Minnesota win.

"I played against Ohio State, and they're a great football team. Don't get me wrong," Morelli said. "Just from what I've been watching on TV, (Michigan) has a lot of big-play weapons. They've got (wide receiver Mario) Manningham, who can run by anybody. Throw it up; he's a tall receiver. Mike Hart in the backfield. That big, monster offensive line. They cause problems for people."

So Moron-nelly is basing his comparisons via what he has seen of Michigan on TV? Niiiice...