The 2020 College Football Season

[billmac91]

I understand what you're saying, just cautioning everyone that producing thousands of test instruments, along with the required chemicals and supplies, won't happen overnight. Neither will training lab technicians in running the tests to get results we can rely on.

Still a reason for great optimism, though.

Not overnight, but by end of September, yes.

Big 10 should strongly reconsider, IMO. Will there be positive tests? Of course. But identifying them immediately, isolating the positives, and going forward is safer than tests periodically, to kids not under a strict protocol.

let’s do the math quickly.

100 players, tested twice a day at $20.
Add another 50 employees attached to program.

150 * 20 (two tests a day at $10). Multiplied by 4 months (120 days).

That’s $360,000 total in testing. And that’s (2) tests a day....which is probably overkill.

The equation has changed in last 24 hours.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Big 10 should strongly reconsider, IMO. Will there be positive tests? Of course. But identifying them immediately, isolating the positives, and going forward is safer than tests periodically, to kids not under a strict protocol.

There is zero reason right now that the B1G can't override its own decision to cancel and resume everything as if nothing happened...the season schedule has already been set, there's still 2 1/2 weeks to the first game and three weeks until the first full weekend of games, and all the players and coaches (with few exceptions) want to play.

 

[MaxBuck]

I have no doubt that tOSU, Purdue, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan and other first tier schools will be able to maintain a reasonably secure bubble for their players and coaches, and that they'll be able to limit attendance to a degree that will minimize the potential for mass infections. Players there would benefit from having the season proceed. I'm not necessarily sure the same is true for places like Rutgers, where the team is already riddled with COVID. Hence my concerns.

I similarly believe that Alabama and Georgia have the resources to prevent mass outbreaks. But Ole Miss? Mississippi State? Come on, man! And right now Florida is like COVID Central.

 

[1926Buckeyes]

Not overnight, but by end of September, yes.

Big 10 should strongly reconsider, IMO. Will there be positive tests? Of course. But identifying them immediately, isolating the positives, and going forward is safer than tests periodically, to kids not under a strict protocol.

let’s do the math quickly.

100 players, tested twice a day at $20.
Add another 50 employees attached to program.

150 * 20 (two tests a day at $10). Multiplied by 4 months (120 days).

That’s $360,000 total in testing. And that’s (2) tests a day....which is probably overkill.

The equation has changed in last 24 hours.

I'm still pretty skeptical of the infrastructure being in place to process all the tests. Seems to be much slower from state to state. Also not sure about how quickly it can be made and distributed.

Then there's certain universities (coughFSUcough) that will find a way to fuck this up or cheap on tests.

I dunno. I just don't want to get my hopes up. This is a great development, but seems to be a couple months too late. And the national organization to actually get this in place everywhere is non existent.

 

[billmac91]

I'm still pretty skeptical of the infrastructure being in place to process all the tests. Seems to be much slower from state to state. Also not sure about how quickly it can be made and distributed.

Then there's certain universities (coughFSUcough) that will find a way to fuck this up or cheap on tests.

I dunno. I just don't want to get my hopes up. This is a great development, but seems to be a couple months too late. And the national organization to actually get this in place everywhere is non existent.

I think people are underestimating the significance of FDA approval and the fast track to get labs certified.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...y-use-authorization-yale-school-public-health

Calling them “test kits” isn’t proper terminology, as I myself have used previously. The testing is actually possible at most lab centers, they just need to be certified by Yale to run proper test. Because of this, I believe the capability is going to be there in 4-6 weeks. All you need is spit from a human, a vial, and the basic equipment most labs already have. And because there is no “proprietary” materials involved, and no royalties will be collected, the test is super cheap (around $4 cost). I don’t want to get too far into weeds (you can read FDA link) but by not needing to extract RNA from a nasal swab, the capabilities needed is greatly reduced by this test. Nasal swabs tend to be more accurate but far more costly. As one of the developers says, if accuracy is an issue, take two tests at once for $20, and you now have 99% accuracy.

What the article states, is now lab centers need to become certified to properly read them. But it also states most health facilities will have the capability. If every school that wanted to play football (or every school in general that wants safety for kids as they return) should have college centers where these tests should be able to be determined.

And the benefit is, the closer the test facility, the quicker the result. So hypothetically you have every player spit in a vial in the AM, and at a designed time in the evening. Run the tests to the facility, and get daily updates on players/staff. Someone tests positive, they’re immediately quarantined and cannot come back until they test negative likely 2-3 straight days.

It’s a path forward and will be how the other conferences going forward will operate.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Someone tests positive, they’re immediately quarantined and cannot come back until they test negative likely 2-3 straight days.

You'd have to quarantine everyone they came in contact with for x period of time as well, no?

 

[Jake]

Well, it's amazing news for the country as well. It's exciting to finally get a saliva test that is this cheap. Only $4 to manufacture, and shouldn't be more than $20 for an everyday person to take after middleman costs to clinics.

Millions of tests are being developed.

It is too bad Big 10 cancelled versus postponing. This test probably would've given them a path forward.

The B1G could reverse course tomorrow if they chose.

If they don't then it adds to the speculation that the virus, in reality, was a secondary concern to the players organizing.

 

[BigWoof31]

for your viewing pleasure

 

[Mike80]

The B1G could reverse course tomorrow if they chose.

If they don't then it adds to the speculation that the virus, in reality, was a secondary concern to the players organizing.

They won't reconsider. NOne of this is going to matter. It's clear the powers that be have motives alterior to "player safety" and to be honest I would be thoroughly shocked to see any NCAA-sanctioned sports for at least a year. Since it appears the B1G and Pac-12 are going to follow that lead, I wouldn't bet on either leagues' long term viability as a power conference if this indeed turns out to be the case.

 

[Jake]

for your viewing pleasure

I wonder if they'll cancel the season 6 days later?

 

[Oh8ch]

There is zero reason right now that the B1G can't override its own decision to cancel and resume everything as if nothing happened...the season schedule has already been set, there's still 2 1/2 weeks to the first game and three weeks until the first full weekend of games, and all the players and coaches (with few exceptions) want to play.

And Warren's announcement would read something like:

"We originally cancelled the fall season out of concern for the health and welfare of our student athletes. But after further consideration - Fuck 'Em."

 

[buckeyebri]

And Warren's announcement would read something like:

"We originally cancelled the fall season out of concern for the health and welfare of our student athletes. But after further consideration - Fuck 'Em."

So sort of like the response, or lack thereof, to CTE........

 

[MaxBuck]

I think people are underestimating the significance of FDA approval and the fast track to get labs certified.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...y-use-authorization-yale-school-public-health

Calling them “test kits” isn’t proper terminology, as I myself have used previously. The testing is actually possible at most lab centers, they just need to be certified by Yale to run proper test. Because of this, I believe the capability is going to be there in 4-6 weeks. All you need is spit from a human, a vial, and the basic equipment most labs already have. And because there is no “proprietary” materials involved, and no royalties will be collected, the test is super cheap (around $4 cost). I don’t want to get too far into weeds (you can read FDA link) but by not needing to extract RNA from a nasal swab, the capabilities needed is greatly reduced by this test. Nasal swabs tend to be more accurate but far more costly. As one of the developers says, if accuracy is an issue, take two tests at once for $20, and you now have 99% accuracy.

What the article states, is now lab centers need to become certified to properly read them. But it also states most health facilities will have the capability. If every school that wanted to play football (or every school in general that wants safety for kids as they return) should have college centers where these tests should be able to be determined.

And the benefit is, the closer the test facility, the quicker the result. So hypothetically you have every player spit in a vial in the AM, and at a designed time in the evening. Run the tests to the facility, and get daily updates on players/staff. Someone tests positive, they’re immediately quarantined and cannot come back until they test negative likely 2-3 straight days.

It’s a path forward and will be how the other conferences going forward will operate.

Is it approval or Emergency Use Authorization? Big difference.

 

[HorseshoeFetish]

 

[Thump]