Differential Statistical Analysis for The Game 2024
Ohio State averages 37.82 ppg
Ohio State scores 58.3% more than their opponents give up to everyone else
Those numbers are very good, but not elite (by Buckeye standards).
The Cheaters Up North Towards Saginaw average 23.09 ppg
They score 5.5% more than their opponents give up to everyone else
They would not have come out above average before their game against the Wildcats (who they caught one week after being mauled by the Buckeyes). But that number is a shade above average, even if it is 1/10th of the Buckeyes Differential Scoring Offense.
The Silver Bullets lead the nation at 10.73 ppg
They allow only 39.4% as many points as their opponents score on everyone else. There is one other team this century that is below the 40% mark (2011 Alabama). Yes, the Oregon game, at 90.9%, was the worst Differential Scoring Defense number of the year by a large margin, and the outing against Nebraska was the second worst at 68%. Every other outing this year was below 44%. Without the inconsistency, this would be the best defense of this century by a mile.
If you don't mind I will use acronyms for previously defined terms from here on out.
The CUNTS scoring defense sits at 21.45, so they've got that going for them.
Their DSD is 78.5%. That's good, not great.
The differential numbers can be combined with the traditional numbers to give a rough prediction for the score of The Game.
DSA "prediction"
Ohio State 30-34 points
CUNTS 9-11 points
But there is some context for these numbers that is very important this year, and that is the difference between how close each team's games have been.
The Buckeyes had a run of three straight 1 score games just at and after the mid-point of the season (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State). All of Ohio State's other games, all 8 of them, were decided by more than 3 scores. That amounts to a lot of time when the Buckeyes were running clock and playing backups. In other words, the Buckeyes posted those remarkable DSA numbers with the pedal a fair distance from the floor for much of the game (for 8 of their 11 games).
The CUNTS on the other hand had ONE game this season decided by more than 3 scores, and that was the game they just played against the Buckeye-bruised Wildcats. Their biggest win apart from that was a 20 pointer over Fresno State in the opener; their biggest loss was 21 points vs Oregon. Every other game they played was a four quarter contest. The point here is that the CUNTS posted their numbers with the pedal to the floor for a majority of their games (OK, Texas coasted against them, but the CUNTS were really trying (and failing)).
So the prediction above comes from numbers produced by the CUNTS trying as hard as they can and the Buckeyes playing backups and running clock.
My real prediction then?
Hang 100
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